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At the AGM I overheard one one of the long standing non-execs talking to Agadem, the non-exec said that he hoped to see 41p with SS 100% fully completed at admission document stage. I remember thinking that was a very precise figure.
I still day 20p on re-listing, if it ever does get re-listed. The news simply does not get any better as each day goes by, with July 31st far approaching.
Well if we end up with 31% with 10% sold to Cameroon as per the previous RNS for $44.9m and the new Cotco regime ratify that then I'd expect an RNS soonish. That would be a good result for us and with the Doba oilfield nationalisation to be decided via the tribunal at a later date then it won't be a bad outcome at all for Save. Top that up with a deal on SS and who knows, all of this could have been worth the wait :-)
Zengas - agreed although the whole chad cotco Cameron situation has been so fast moving since December 2022 that there is a new article on the situation every other day. It would be nice for the company to still address the market and let shareholders know everything in relation to Cotco still stands obviously I am not an expert in what is deemed market obligatory news and what isn’t and perhaps they probably need more clarity from lawyers first to see what the actual deal is before reporting it back to market
I’m late to the news as usual. Does this mean we’re still selling 10% to Cameroon, owning 31.06%? A bit complicated for my brain at the end of a hard day.
1. " In May, Chad took steps to seize control of bank accounts held in COTCO’s name. Letters were sent to a number of banks saying Chad and Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (SHT) owned 53.77% stake in COTCO. This followed the nationalisation of Exxon’s assets and acquisition of Petronas’. "
(Therefore on the above statement SHT 53.77%, Cameroon 15.17% and SAVE 31.06% = 100% ???)
and
2. " According to correspondence reported in the local press, Chad may transfer a 20% stake in COTCO to Cameroon. This would take Cameroon’s stake to 35.17% and Chad’s to 33.77%. "
If you read the above it seems Saves assumed sale of 10% is factored in point 1 above. It also appears as having been agreed and still leaving them with 31.06% in point 2.
I think Chad has ended up with better voting arrangements in COTCo that it otherwise would not have had. It has to release 20% under CEMAC to Cameroon under the agreement for allowing the deal to go through.
Cameroon wanted the matter brought back to a normal ownership structure and what the recent two-ing and fro-ing spat seemed to be about.
If this is as they say "marked the final stage in the nationalisation of what had been ExxonMobil's assets" then where is the 31.06% - beccause this seems to still rest in SAVEs hands looking at the percentages above. This does not seem to be taken from SAVE - how can it have been by Chad in another jurisdiction unless Cameroon does it and which there is no mention of Cameroon doing this. There may be not as many SAVE directors as envisaged and the (SAVEs) Chair and managing director of COTCo has changed to that of Chads oil minister.
This is over 3 days old so if there was a major problem i would have expected SAVE to say something if their ownership stake in COTCo was affected by now.
TIL - Thanks for posting
Looking at the percentages at the end of the article 35.17 + 33.77 it leaves 31.06%.
Is the 31.06% for SAVE after 10% is sold to Cameroon?
Seems like the only way to salvage something from the whole chad / cameroon deal is through arbitration as all efforts to negotiate and diplomacy has failed. Let's hope we get arbitration decision on this pretty quickly, it will be interesting to see if Savannah Energy release a statement on what it means for our share in Cotco and what level of protection is there I am sure this news requires some sort of an RNS to be released by the company
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/pipelines-africa/516643/chad-cameroon-cotco-pipeline-savannah-misfortune/
Personally, after their stance at the AGM, I think they'll just keep quiet on this until we get the arbitration ruling, probably next year. If we get the SS deal over the line, particularly if we have an effective date of Jan 2022 as mentioned as a possibility in Sunbed's post, then I think we can all chill about CC and let it take it's course. Still a big IF though at this moment in time.
Thanks for sharing KK, an update and some clarity from Save would be welcome here as they have updated re cotco in the recent past.
The reality, however, is less clear-cut. Opposed to the acquisition of Exxon Mobil assets by Savannah Energy in their country, the Chadian authorities nationalized them and entrusted their management to Tchad Petroleum Company (TPC), created for the needs of the cause. But the case is still pending before the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris. As a result, despite his dismissal and although he has appointed an interim in the person of Stéphane Soumahoro, Nicolas de Blanpré continues to act and present himself as general manager of Cotco. "The Cotco offices in Douala will be closed on July 4 and 5, 2023. Employees are asked to work from home for those who can," he said in a July 3, 2023 message to staff.
By convening a board of directors on July 4, Chad hopes to truly take control of Cotco with the appointment of the company's leaders. To do this, N'Djamena asked Yaoundé for " good co-management ", we learned on June 19, 2023 at the end of an audience between President Paul Biya and the Secretary General of the Presidency of the Republic of Chad. , Gali Ngothé Gatta, emissary of the Chadian President, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. This co-management would materialize in particular by the joint constitution of the management team.
Chad has also undertaken before the CEMAC Commission (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Chad, CAR and Equatorial Guinea), to retrocede to the National Hydrocarbons Company (SNH), the secular arm of the State of Cameroon in oil and gas exploration and exploitation, part of its shares in Cotco. In a confidential letter sent on June 2, 2023 to the Chadian Minister of Hydrocarbons by the Managing Director of SNH, Adolphe Moudiki, we learned that Cameroon is demanding the retrocession of 20% of the 53.77% of the assets currently held by the Chad in the share capital of Cotco. But Chad is proposing to transfer an "additional participation greater than 10%".
It is not known for the moment if the board of directors of this July 4 has worked on this question. We are also waiting to know the fate that Chad and Cameroon intend to reserve for the 41.06% of Cotco shares claimed by Savannah Energy. Just as we are waiting to see how the British oil and gas junior will react to these developments.
hTtps://www-investiraucameroun-com.translate.goog/energie/0407-19550-cotco-un-nouveau-dg-nomme-face-aux-menaces-de-savannah-energy-de-fermer-le-pipeline-tchad-cameroun?fbclid=IwAR2yjilI7T7ELXYXvJ9iwGnVHC6OruZ-IJXcu80JnXuoEmrwqdOZaJuo2Ck&_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(Business in Cameroon) - A board meeting of Cameroon Oil Transportation Company (Cotco) was held on July 4, 2023 in Douala, we learn from sources inside the company. " The first issue of this meeting is the appointment of new leaders of the company ", indicate the same sources. According to the first echoes from Douala, the Cameroonian Bako Harouna (photo) has been brought to the head of this company in charge of operating the Cameroonian part of the pipeline through which Chad exports all its oil. This magistrate by training was until his appointment, deputy director general of the Autonomous Port of Kribi. He will be assisted by the Chadian Haoua Daoussa Déby. The former number 2 of the N'Djamena Refining Company was before her appointment Chad's representative to Cotco.
This appointment seems to have been accelerated by current events within this society. Indeed, according to a letter from the Secretary General of the President of the Republic of Cameroon addressed on June 30, 2023 to the Secretary of State at the Cameroonian Ministry of Mines, Industry and Technological Development, of which Investir au Cameroun obtained a copy , officials appointed to head Cotco by Savannah Energy are threatening to shut down the pipeline. According to Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh's letter, these threats should be carried out as of June 30. But, according to our information, "in view of the serious consequences that would result from the closure of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline and the danger that such an action would pose to the Cotco company", the Cameroonian authorities have taken "precautionary measures" to ensure the proper functioning of this infrastructure. Our sources report, for example, the presence on July 4, 2023 of the police at the company's headquarters in Douala.
Indeed, Savannah Energy claims the acquisition of 41.06% of the shares of Cotco held by the American Exxon Mobil. This acquisition allowed the British oil and gas junior to take control of the company. On the strength of this, during a board meeting held on May 24, 2023 in Paris, it appointed Nicolas de Blanpré as CEO. Except that with the realization of the purchase of 31% of the shares of Cotco then held by the Malaysian Petronas by the Société des hidrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), N'Djamena took control of the company with 53.77% of the shares. , and held a general meeting on the same day in the same city. On occasion, the directors representing Savannah Energy have been dismissed, including Nicolas de Blanpré, on the grounds that the British oil and gas junior, no longer being a member of the consortium operating the Doba field in Chad, no longer has the right, according to Cotco's articles of association, to hold shares in the company.
Interesting post from Sunbed over on ADVFN:
'Following my posts this morning airing my concerns, I decided to call our NOMAD Strand Hanson. Late this afternoon I had a call back from Ritchie Balmer and it was a very good call. Whilst my source of original info is solid, I was reassured by Ritchie about where we’re currently at. Here are a few snippets:-
Ritchie has been active on this transaction since before it was announced to us in December 2024 and is very close to the detail as things currently stand.
An extension to the 6 month rule was granted until 28th July based on the demonstrable progress that has been achieved with the deal and a clear line of sight to proposed completion date.
Strand are not working up any alternative paths should 28th July not be hit. This led me to believe that they believe that the date should be hit for completion.
I asked about any main differences re this deal coming back to market and the Exonn. Chad deal. He mentioned a very big difference was that Chad deal was announced on the deemed consent rule, whereby pre-emption rights were not exercised within the time window so SAVE proceeded and announced based on deemed consent. I think this will play a very big part in our favour with regard to the ICC ruling. However, the SS deal does not have any deemed consent element. The SS deal has many strands which need to complete but this deal required Explicit Consent from the SS Government which is being worked on!
He clearly stated tha the final part of the deal needed before its 100% complete is shareholder approval with a vote to take place 2.55 to 3 weeks after the admission document.
I asked about economic interest date and he could not be certain of it as was doing from memory but mentioned that he thought it could be 1st January 2022.
All in all he seemed very relaxed with the situation and extension and as we all know but he also stated, that these types of extension are not uncommon.
Finally as the Explicit Government sign off is a key part of the deal, I’m certain from what he said that we can not issue an Admission Document until SS Government sign-off is in place. The only thing left to do once the document is issued will be to get shareholder approval which we all know is a foregone conclusion.
Sleep well x'
One thing for certain is it's really about time our new chairman shows his experience leadership and contacts in Africa to get deals done and work with governments after all we did hire him to do all of the above so let's see how influential he is in assisting Savannah through all acquisition challenges. Savannah problem isn't access to capital or being able to strike deals with majors it's problem is getting host governments on board with formal approvals which is where I am hoping he is a heavy hitter with a lot of experience who can help the company overcome these challenges............
How likely are we allowed to extended? Don’t mind waiting until SS is done.
It’s still another month to go so a lot can happen. But it does look like we’re running into some obstacles.
Yes, that would be my way of thinking too with regard to the date. I think most of us probably are happy to wait till we have govt. approvl, assuming we do, rather than relist without it; though to behonest, it won't make any difference either way in the long term as long as we do eventually get it.
Either way I am pretty confident that Savannah will have another deal in line more likely in Nigeria, where they have already proven to be a valuable partner and perhaps where they would already have confidence of the government approval as they have proven how successfully they have run accugas. So if I was AK I would be targeting sizeable acquisitions in Nigeria where we are more likely to get regulatory approvals in the short term and than we could always continue our geographical outreach in the long term once other countries in Africa become more receptive to independents taking over assets.
I have always been fully supportive of AK's strategy of acquisitions and still believe that we should continue this approach all it takes is for one major deal to come through to open the floodgates................
Law of averages would suggest that if you do target a few aggressively we should at least bag 1 but as always time will tell.....................
Komakino as far as I am aware 28th isn't a fixed date, Savannah will have a choice to ask for further extension or either re-admit without formal approval or terminate the transaction, But the choice will be Savannah's. They could still come to the market without formal approval, although I believe the preference has always been to come with approval in hand. So it's not entirely out the question that we re-admit without approval and than they target government approval by let's say 31st December 2023..........
Thanks KK
The other assertion from Sunbed was that the 28th is a fixed date from the Nomad who wouldn't sanction a further extension. More sceptical on that one but as I say it's anyone's guess.
No, unfortunately there's no provenance for any of Sunbed's assertions, so it's up to the individual to decide for themselves whether to believe or not. Personally I suspect they are true but would be nice to have at least a general idea where the information comes from.
There appears to be a suggestion on the advance board by Sunbed that AK has had to meet Petronas urgently in Dubai as SS aren't comfortable with Save taking over the assets. I can't actually find the post itself when i have scrolled through advance and indeed i don't post on there. Has anyone else seen or heard anything regarding this ?
They don't usually put up the AGM video on the website, so suspect not hubenstein. Either way, we should get some more detail on Niger at some point this year, assuming we come back to market at some point!
Yes - I wasn't clear. I was referring to first oil from Niger. Very happy to be wrong but my take away was that he didn't recognise the q4 2024 target and that it would be before then, q3 at the latest. The testing would be q4 this year. Will there be a chance to revisit it?
My understanding has always been that Savannah wants to return to the market with a big deal now whether that's south sudan deal or something equivalent who knows at this stage, I believe they will not want to return to the market without a sizeable acquisition and than being at the risk of being suspended once more if they continue to pursue large acquisitions, so ideally they need to use the current window if possible and wouldn't surprise me if they continue to extend it further until they land one sizeable deal fully, by sizeable I mean a deal equal or great to 50,000 bopd.