Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks Zengas - It would be interesting to see how Gran Tiera conversation proceed and the substantial pivot from nationalising 12 months ago to now trying to bring in a partner.
Perhaps this was the deby plan all along nationalise the asset to please public for the elections which are in May once he secures the election than perhaps pivot away from nationalisation
Good to see Nigeria continuing to execute reform to increase sentiment and investments in oil and gas sector through executive orders, here is hoping to another asset preferably an oil asset even a small one with small production numbers and development and exploration potential would be nice in the range of 5,000 - 10,000 bopd.
https://saharareporters.com/2024/03/06/tinubu-signs-three-executive-orders-reform-nigerias-oil-and-gas-sector
Also just reverting back to Niger,
Saves Chinese partner in Stubb Creek were negotiating for R5, 6 & 7 in Agadem last May. Surely if anyone is negotiating for those blocks there could surely be some partner interest for our block previously known as R1, 2, 3 & 4.
Trust - I can't see Gran Tierra or any publically listed company getting involved in a disputed asset until the case is resolved.
The Petronas Doba fields and pipeline share in Chad is a different matter.
Nothing on GTEs website at all but they are still looking for assets and i think SHT have inadvertently put those discussions up on facebook.
This from AI just under 2 years ago ( i didn't renew a subscription at their exorbitant prices) 18 months ago.
' New kid on the African blocks
In addition to Tullow Oil, another Canadian firm will potentially join the Elumelu venture to take over SPDC: Gran Tierra. This company produces around 30,000 b/d in Colombia and Ecuador but has never been in business in Africa. However, the elections in Colombia at the end of May 2022 have raised concerns that the oil sector could be put at risk if the radical left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro is elected. Petro, a senator and former mayor of Bogotá, has hammered home the point that he would invest massively in renewable energy and block any new hydrocarbon exploration in the country. Gran Tierra is thus counting on Nigeria to flourish in the event of a change of policy in Colombia.
Although Gran Tierra does not yet have a stake in Africa, its chairman and CEO Gary S. Guidry knows the continent well, as he is also a director of Africa Oil (which bought Petrobras in Nigeria and is engaged in exploration in Namibia, South Africa and Kenya). Guidry was also CEO of Caracal Energy between 2011 and 2014, which operates blocks in southern Chad that were sold to Glencore. The trader himself has just concluded the sale of his assets to Perenco in 2021 (AI, 19/01/22).'
I for one hope that Savannah are well informed on this and to be spiteful I hope Savannah are getting there lawyers involved in case chad start to sell the Exxon stake to another party.
Thanks zengas and I must say a brilliant find. For the rest link below.
This makes it more frustrating clearly it’s more personal with Savannah if they don’t want us. On the finer detail. I wonder if they are going to sell the whole Petronas stake on or part of stake from their current holding excluding Exxon / Savannah stake which is being arbitrated.
Surely they can’t touch Exxon stake until arbitration is concluded and gran tiera wouldn’t want to be caught up in buying a stake which is being arbitrated unless through mediation Savannah and chad have perhaps reached an agreement that chad can find a buyer of their choice who is willing to pay the same price as we did for the stake which was circa $400m, Exxon get there outstanding balance and we get the rest for our troubles.
On second thoughts I feel chad bitten of more they could chew with nationalising and now to save face they can’t go back to Savannah as politically it would look comical so best option is find a new buyer I.e gran tiera and spin the story to say that they found a better deal when in reality it’s the same
https://m.facebook.com/sht.tchad
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1765402411449885044
I sense it's fill-or-kill before this.
But we've all been reading tea leaves for months given the IR Omertà.
Zengas - I am guessing Savannah are waiting to see if they are wanted in south sudan otherwise no point on sponsoring and wasting time an money.
I am still skeptical of the wildcat announcement as I don't believe there is quotes from official government sources on this and besides wildcat announcement is just smoke without any substance and lacks substantial detail. I am yet to see the South Sudan government officially approve a producing or exploration licence.
It would be interesting to see the full progamme and speakers and if Save are on it.
No sign of too many sponsors yet either and again if Save will be one (they were lasyt year).
About 15-16 weeks away with tickets on sale for the SSOP 2024.
There's a news link to tiddler Wildcat Petroleum a few weeks ago getting clearance to take part for oil/gas assets but still nothing on Save after all this time.
Trust
"It's clear to see nationalising the asset and taking over petronas stake without a plan will only lead to lack of investment and they simply don't have the technical expertise to increase production."
Go to SHTs f/b page and you will see they had meetings with Gran Tierra (GTE) yesterday in Chad.
Does that sound like a slight change of tune?
The possibility of a little light coming through, at last?
The paragraph below no sense at all in particular this line "Chad is actively seeking collaboration with local and international entities that share mutual interests in driving upstream exploration"
This is what Savannah was planning to do, african oil and gas is so convoluted, it's hard to make sense of it all really what they promote publicly and what they do in reality is so misaligned and they still want to attract investment.
It's clear to see nationalising the asset and taking over petronas stake without a plan will only lead to lack of investment and they simply don't have the technical expertise to increase production.
Chad remains open to strategic partnerships aimed at developing its resources, notably in the Doba Basin, a cornerstone of the country’s oil production. Previously explored by industry giants ExxonMobil and Shell, the basin is estimated to hold significant untapped hydrocarbon potential and is home to the Kome heavy oil field, which contributes roughly 7% to the country’s daily output. Chad is actively seeking collaboration with local and international entities that share mutual interests in driving upstream exploration and harnessing the country’s oil and gas resources for added socioeconomic development and energy security.
https://energycapitalpower.com/chad-gears-up-for-new-investment-ahead-of-iae-2024/
Poor article which highlights many of the problems in dealing with these people but omits arguably the most important one
, Savannah's dispute with Chad and the nationalisation of our assets. Threatening and doing are somewhat different animals, although both members of the same family. The follow on from this is of course the negative impact this must be having of further international investment in Chad.
Quite incredible that the author skirted round it.
Savannah gets a wee mention in this interesting article by forbes. Hoping that ICSID are able to really come to a ruling quickly in our favour, if they don't than it could send a dangerous precedent for future countries attempting to nationalise resource without doing a proper transaction putting a lot of foreign direct investment at risk
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/03/04/chaos-in-chad-endangers-energy-experiment/
Looks like we participated in Nigeria energy summit last week
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7170732259229028353?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7170732259229028353%29
Just to clarify, those figures are the unrisked estimates.
CNPC are in Chad so i doubt there's been any real issue for them given they had a fairly large supply base and they own Great Wall drilling with another base already in Niger so i would presume they would have been well stocked after Covid restrictions.
Many of Saves exploration prospects are clustered close to the existing hub of 4 fields.
Three of the existing fields have deeper targets of a net 24 - 71 mmbo potential over and above the existing 109 mmbo 3C in the discoveries - all medium risk.
Out of 8 further prospects,
2 have low risk net of 73 - 209 mmbo.
3 have medium risk of 139 - 409 mmbo
A further 3 have a high risk net of 148 - 470 mmbo.
Overall theres in excess of 440 - 1150 mmbls net to be targeted in the next 11 drills, 3 of which are on existing fields over and above the existing 33 mmbo 2C.
Zengas - On Niger, I am of the firm belief that the company need to do infrastructure led exploration, get drilling in areas where access to pipeline and tie in are relatively wast and less costly. We could go for a partner but it would depend on the the split, who maintains operatorship and how aggressive they are in a drilling programme, but i fully concur with you Zengas if CNPC as reported have started to produce for first export in Mat than how are they getting there supplies into Niger, these are questions that frankly need to be answered.
RR Kosmos are paying down some of their commercial debt facility but at the end of the day these $300m convertible notes just replace that with the same level of indebteness to 2030.
66,000 boepd production Q4 2023 representing 12% growth over previous year.
" 2P reserves as of year-end 2023 are approximately 520 million boe"
Revenue $507m Q4 2023 and $1.72 billion for f/yr 23.
Net debt end 2023 = $2.39b.
Off their more than £6 high to £4.50 to day with a m/cap of £2.12 billion (471.5m shares).
=============================================
Come on Save - One and for all, no excuse in Niger with ample opportinity to bag more than 500 mmbo reserves from the very low risk Sokor Alternances and an operational export pipeline expanding to more tham 300k bopd with p/stations as well as a refinery. CNPC has bagged over 1 billion bl reserves from the Sokor Alternaces with an 80% success rate.
Sokor Alternances Formation: This has been the principal focus of exploration in the ARB to date; all of the Savannah discoveries are from within this sequence, as are a high proportion of the discoveries made by CNPC (p 143 ad doc 2021). Get that pressure communication/compartment sections in Amdigh evaluated soon which could determine a significant 2P reserves upgrade from the 3C level.
Current net 2C from Amdigh, Bushiya, Erida and Kunama 33.3 mmbo. 3C = 109 .1 mmbo P147 adm doc 2021).
(Figure 1-2) with a total Unrisked Best Estimate of c. 6.7 bn bbls Oil Initially In-Place. In addition to the prospect and lead inventory within proven plays, Savannah has also identified several new, potentially significant exploration plays which offer genuine high risk, high reward upside. P392.
“Kosmos Energy Ltd. Announces Offering Of $300 Million Of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030”
Interesting that they are using the $300m to pay down their debt.
Another Interesting Article - I wonder if they are hinting at Savannah Energy here
The president's sentiment was echoed by Joseph Bakosoro, minister of Presidential Affairs, who also doubles as the chairman of the Nilepet Board of Directors. Bakosoro urged oil institutions to desist from unnecessary bureaucracy, which serves as a stumbling block for foreign companies to acquire exploration blocks.
"Too much bureaucracy is bad. Some of our partners came here three years ago, two years ago, even five years ago. And we cannot tell them either yes or no when they are applying to support projects. If you delay friends to discuss and reach a solution with them, then there are two things that might be the reason," he said.
"One, either you, who is being consulted by partners, do not know what you're doing and you continue delaying them because you're ignorant or you're asking for a kickback. This should not be the case."
The minister appealed to oil institutions to ease the investment process for potential foreign partners, reiterating the need for timely feedback on the status of their applications or proposals, adding that South Sudan needs investors in the oil sector to move forward.
"We are a young country. We need to move our country forward. We want to attract partners. Then, we must work with them diligently, authentically, and professionally and tell them yes or no. Too much bureaucracy is bad bureaucracy. Therefore, I'm asking you, please, those in the oil field, attract our friends. When they come, leave everything and do the paperwork with them. If it succeeds, go ahead. If you disagree, tell them so that they go and look for other businesses somewhere," he said.
The country's oil sector remains under the control of foreign partners after the government resolved in October 2023 that Nilepet needed further capacity building to take over the ownership of the country's oil sector.
https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/nilepet-hqs-inaugurated-with-presidential-call-for-oil-production-surge/600
This article covers South Sudan Oil sector. Why don't they approve a willing operator like savannah would will increase oil production they have an option on the table already so no point of pointing fingers, it's the lack of government approvals and transparency that is hindering south sudan not lack of willing operators and capital.
Approvals and transparent governance dives capital and growth, clearly they them self know that they are a hindrance to their own prosperity purely out of politics and corruption
https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/institutional-fragility-driver-of-economic-woes---claims-official/596
Demand for Nigeria Bonds is increasing and thus will increase dollar flow into the Nigeria, hopefully this finally unlocks the accugas debt re-finance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-04/nigeria-central-bank-says-foreign-demand-up-in-sign-policy-works
Let’s hope she’s not only right but also happens a lot sooner.