The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Rocky on your point around return to market with the petronas deal in tact but formal approval not yet granted. I mentioned that the brokers will set the tone of the share price in that case by brokers i meant mainly finncap and panmure gordon and strand hanson as those are our 3 house brokers who will also play a hand in writing the admission document like they did with our last deal. I believe that the 3 will set the tempo for the Share price on re-listing with approval and without approval.
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Savannah-Energy-plc-Admission-Document-Dec21.pdf
Rocky - What can I say I am naturally and over thinker which probably isn't so helpful in this scenario. But as much as for some light hearted fun information sharing and learning from each other I do enjoy the exchanges with many posters on here. Plus I think it helps to share thoughts widely amongst the group on proceedings as it helps with engagement and understanding for all.
On a serious note if and when the admission document does land I might need to check in to a clinic and check my blood pressure before AK leads us onto another suspension, they say third time is a lucky charm ;)
Agree. Trust has been the one keeping this board alive. Love all his posts.
TiL - do you have any other addictions apart from this one? I certainly hope not as you would not have enough time to do anything with them. LOL - ha ha ha only joking mastery but your mind is certainly working overtime during this long period of silence. Keep your posts flowing as I love them. Hope we are all rewarded well here - at some point anyway.
I am feeling lucky this week not sure why there is a itch on my palm that needs scratching ;)
My assumption is based on the fact that the market can't discount the fact of how our nigerian business continue to outperform and grow as well as niger start up in sight.................................. Surely with the benefit of 6 months of nigeria performance and reduce debt and new Amcon gas contract at the very least we would open probably level or a few pence up the very least in the 25 - 30 p range. Besides it will be entirely down to the brokers as they normally have finer detail of where the company would be at in terms of approval so they will probably price it with that in mind as well, and who knows we may release the document announce another deal in tandem as well so all factors that would need to be considered in the opening price as well
Rocky in any case lets hope we only come back with approval in hand as that would be the most logical and reasonable thing to do, although I think the share price wouldn't react as you say and would still see a premium to our suspended price more in the region of 30-35p but not as large as we would see with approval obliviously. Let's hope he has planned the timing and workstreams to perfection so we achieve both.
Rocjy - I am guessing you haven't had any further updates from IR have you or do you plan to contact them this week ?
On a side note - is there a specific timeframe that we have to be trading for post suspension before we walk into another suspension. my question is can we come back from suspension and than go back into suspension for another acquisition or does some time have to pass first before we could do that ? not saying i want another suspension but good to know
I could not state what ‘valid reasons’ may be. But if SAVE required a further extension for a valid reason, AND reasonable progress has been made AND a clear achievable path could be seen to completion, then AIM and NOMAD will more than likely allow a further extension. I believe that SAVE are under pressure to resume trading from a number of angles and personally from what I hear, I don’t think AK can hold out much longer before we resume. Whether that is with or without Government approval, your guess is as good as mine. My fear is hat we come back without it as I think we would come back 5p to 10p below suspended price and would not see the same gain if and when fully completed.
Yes, agree TiL. According to Sunbed's conversation with the Nomad a couple of weeks ago the extension was agreed based on a clear path to producing the admission doc. That assumes therefore that if that no longer applies then the Nomad would not grant a further extension. The conversation certainly indicated that it was not done without due consideration of meeting the extended date.
Numbers swimming in Zeng’s head as we all know. Amazing details. No competition :-)) Thank you.
Agreed Zengas - Hence my point how long can the admission document and re-listing be held back simply because of government approval, there is only o long the deal can be in sign off inertia.......................................
On a side note i find the below paragraph interesting referring to Exxon shell and chevron Nigeria divestments, wonder if these are the assets that we are looking to strike for when it mentions one other significant opportunity in 2023......
"For example, in addition to divesting its Chad and Cameroon holdings, ExxonMobil has indicated that it is pulling out of Ghana6 and says it will end operations in Equatorial Guinea after its licence there is up in 20267. ExxonMobil has also announced its intention to divest a significant portion of its Nigerian portfolio, as have Shell and Chevron7. PETRONAS had beenoperating in South Sudan for more than 24 years when itdecided to shed its oil and gas assets there."
There may be no firm date for S.S govt approval.
Look at 7E they first had Nigerian Govt DPR dd and sent for final approval which bewteen those 2 dats lasted a year and overall the deal took 2.5 years in total to complete from first announced.
Currently the S.Sudan president is involved with a lot of talks and travelling with and to other countries and Sudan itself on ending the war in Sudan - so this could impact timelines.
Amending that to - 7E and Exxon Chad running to almost 3 and 4 weeks respectively beyond the 6 month rule
Komakino - But surely the nomad can not keep on granting unlimited extensions indefinitely they will come a point where they will have to return to market if the deal is still pending.......................
Nomad - should in theory only grant extension if there is a firm date of government approval penciled into the diary, the nomad can not simply work on word of mouth oh it will be next month i promise or it will be the following month i promise though savannah pleading.....................
One would hope that when they mentioned the 28th July date as part of the results and if the intention was to come to the market with approval in hand than they would have some date penciled in the diary with the South Sudanese government, which allowed the nomad to grant the extension...............
We are still in the ball park area for resumption of trading timeline based on past suspensions.
The 4 Suspensions
11-1-2016 The Company has entered into non-binding heads of terms regarding a potential transaction which, if completed on the currently proposed terms, would be classified as a reverse takeover under the AIM Rules for Companies. The Company's ordinary shares will remain suspended from trading on AIM until such time as either an admission document setting out details of the proposed transaction is published, which would be no earlier than April 2016, or confirmation is given that the transaction is not proceeding.
5-7-2016 In the event that the Placing does not complete, it is highly likely that the Board will terminate discussions on the potential transaction in order to avoid the Ordinary Shares being cancelled from admission to trading on AIM, which is currently scheduled to take place on 12 July 2016, pursuant to AIM Rule 41. $40m raised at 38p and suspension lifted
---------------------------
8-6-2017 suspended for 7E takeover.
21-12-2017 Adm doc published.
22-12-2017. $125m raised at 35p. Suspension lifted.
11-10-2018. Nigerian Govts DPR complets DD on deal - sent for final approval.
24-1-2019. $23m raised at 28p.
15-11-2019 Deal approved & Completed
--------------------------------------
2-6-2021 suspended for Exxon Chad deal.
13-12-2021 Announced Petronas Chad deal
30-12-2021 $65m raised at 19.35p
31-12-2021 Adm doc published. Suspension lifed/trading restored.
9-12-2022 Exxon deal announced as completed. (Petronas subsequently abandoned).
-------------------------------
12-12-2022 suspended for Petronas South Sudan deal.
Adm doc to be published by 28-7-2023.
---------------------------
In the very first RTO they were mindful to be back from suspension within 6 months which they were, though the deal terminated so no adm doc = 25 weeks.
In the 7E RTO they were back trading just 2 weeks beyond the 6 month rule and adm doc published at the same time level of just beyond 6 months = 29 weeks though another almost 2 years before deal completed.
Re Exxon Chad - Adm doc published at 2 weeks beyond the 6 month rule and back from suspension at the same time = 30 weeks.
South Sudan - adm doc intends to be published next week by 28th which shows that it will be 32 weeks lapsed (or if by this coming Friday would be 31 weeks).
TiL, whilst I think it's in everyone's best interests to relist with approval I don't think it's a requirement. We obviously relisted without consent for Chad, albeit implicitly being deemed to have been given. Sunbed on ADVFN board had a conversation with the Nomad and my interpretation of that is that is wasn't a requirement. Obviously we wouldn't be able to vote on the proposal without it but I don't think that prohibits a relist. Probably a moot point as I'm pretty sure they won;t come back without it and may require an additional extension from the Nomad if it's not forthcoming by 28th July.
Komakino - Based on your post below sounds like that we could still re-list without government approval and release the admission document, obviously having the approval to hand as well would be nice. I was always under the impression from posts from this board that we cannot return to market without formal government approval on the deal ? so I am guessing i was wrong on my assumptions ?
Sounds like there isn't a legal requirement for savannah and more of a preference to return to the market with approval in hand as well am I correct ? Cause waiting for south sudan government could frankly take ages and Q3 2023 can turn to Q4 2023, to Q1 2024 etc.................................
Lexdad, Andew Knott said at the AGM Q&A session that the company will relist the day after they publish the admission document. The latest update we are working from was the RNS on the 8th June where they stated 'Further to the Company's 13 April 2023 Q1 2023 financial and operational update, the Company continues to advance the various workstreams required to complete the reverse takeover of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's ("PETRONAS") entire oil and gas business in South Sudan and intends to publish an AIM Admission Document by 28 July 2023, following which point the Company would seek restoration to trading on AIM of its ordinary shares. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.'
Yes, even if they haven't got govt. approval they would have to relist if they are outside the 6 month suspension period (which they already are) and the Nominated Advisor doesn't allow an extension (which they currently have).
Hi, I understood that the SS deal is contingent on government approval. If this hasn't been achieved yet, do Aim rules require readmission anyway at the end of the permitted suspension period, with the deal still pending? I'm not sure show this would work.
Also, looking back at old RNS from the last suspension, the admission doc was published right at the last minute before resumption of trading. Should we expect the same again? Ie no news this week.
Tier - It does indeed hoping for a rockyride exclusive if he gets an indication / suss out from IR or hoping we get it soon regardless..........
On a positive note there isn't a better time to close the deal than now saudi extending cuts till the end of 2024 will probably mean a higher rolling average of Brent in the next 6, 12, 18 months likely closer to $80 if not more. The window to close oil deal is now as the market will like and appreciate deals fully
https://www.forexlive.com/news/saudi-arabia-says-will-extend-voluntary-oil-cuts-until-the-end-of-december-2024-20230717/
Worry continues until SS lands. No matter how researched we are. Let’s hope good news very soon.
One thing AK needs to be mindful of is he is losing out of suspension windows if so if he wants to carry on with acquisition strategy he needs to deliver a significant deal in this window whether it's south Sudan deal or whether it's another deal that he can wrap up quickly within this window. If looking for other assets Nigeria may a safe bet as we are operating there already so we could potentially move a deal towards approval quite swiftly there if that were to be the case and if the groundwork has already been laid.
Olderandwiser - I know things have been disappointing in general but one can dream right as with all investments that we make in any company is based on certain hope until proven otherwise. I would be interested to know how many oil and gas companies that aren't big oil are better than there IPO price as with all companies there is a low point and a hight point in it's journey towards growth, one thing we have established is that our low point was 8p during covid day's it's safe to say whether we complete any new deals or not that we will not be re-visiting those lows again. If your average is below 25p than most people will sleep easy knowing that accugas and niger with time increase in production and net debt reduction will organically grow the company to at least double that to 50p within the next 12-18 months.
As for deals we remain in the hands of the company to be able to deliver, I believe the chad deal inertia has probably caused a lot of anxious sentiment around the company especially as we have gone from suspension to suspension without anything to materially show for so far which is a fair point and a lot having capital tied up when they could have delivered certain returns elsewhere in the suspension periods.
Amazing how the AK magic is still working with certain posters, despite the overwhelming evidence from Mr Market that he has created no shareholder wealth on balance since the Ipo many many moons ago.
Not holding my breath for any great reveal in the next 10 days.
Day 10 comes empty handed, 9 days to go.......................................