Savannah Energy Share Chat (SAVE)

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-commodity-bull-market-has-only-just-begun

Worth looking at just for the chart. Pull back from the hourly / daily timeframes some on here seem hooked on and check in on the bigger picture!

It’s not £5 a point! It’s not a rush job, I’m quite relaxed on the timeframes here. Got to consider a bit of a sharp shock for some reason which pulls everything down obviously but on balance it seemed like an obvious trade.

Agree RR. £5k a point is pretty chunky (if it’s not £5 a penny) so will watch with interest - you may well have picked a terrific level to re-up, bravo!

Interesting article on physical vs futures markets
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/talk-of-an-oil-market-recession-is-overblown/2022/07/07/77542fc0-fdb2-11ec-b39d-71309168014b_story.html

Zengas thanks your helpful posts today.

Not something I've ever taken seriously but I did notice that the last 2 early morning Gas Sales RNS's had a 1 trade late the previous evening. Here's hoping Niger is in the morning as AK said 3-4 weeks on the 7th June.

Hi Agadem,
I have been in Savannah since Niger & went to Savannah HQ for the AGM to meet the team in person.I was hoping that you would have been there in person. Nick Beatie wasn't there in person as was in Nigeria on zoom ( was hoping to talk to him in person after the AGM but couldn't).
There was only two private investors in person there.The other PI was an accountant who was impressed with their set up.
Didn't seem to be any annymosity between SO'B,SJ & AK. This was AK 4th week spent in the UK for the whole year.
Had a chat with AK & also one of their legal counsel.
No government hold ups.
IT issues sorted
Talked about the Mulak deal that was small change .Talked about having to present things in different ways to different people.
Tried to get my head around the 600 capacity pipeline for Accucas with the 240 pumping abilities.There was capacity around the Port Harcourt area that third parties would need to contact Savannah when they were ready as was the only pipeline in that area.

Came away with the impression of a high growth company & felt my money was in far better hands than an oilers AGM the previous day.
Interested to know what your concerns are?
BW

Anyone who's into technical analysis may note that today's candle (I call them kangaroo tails) looks a lot like the candle on 28/01/21 that was a shake out of weak holders. This of course doesn't mean we're at the same turning point today, but the price has come off a reasonable amount from its recent high.

I personally use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis as TA whilst it has its flaws I've always found very helpful especially using daily / hourly charts in timing buying, selling , shorting and covering and weekly / monthly charts in screening potential stocks to buy / short as well as monitoring the trend. I would urge anyone interested or sceptical of TA to read Alexander Elder's fantastic book Trading for a Living. I would also highly recommend "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: With New Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore" the new commentary version is the best one, though this is not on TA in the modern sense.

On the basis of the Chad Cameroon acquisitions completing and the last 6 months of higher oil prices, i believe this could make an improvement of $50-$60m off the purchase price (and what that does for net debt reduction as well). In addition the new gas contracts should be worth $20m+ is my expectation. Oil price for Save still running at a 33.3% premium to this years expectation irrespective of production/reserve increases. Overall the price fall is going against the grain of the upside growth imo and the last 6 months not reflected.

Despite this and by comparrison from recent highs

Eco 40 - 25 (down 37.5%).
Sepl 137 - 97 (down 29%).
Ptal 61 - 43 (down 29%. Yesterday was -33%).
Panr 145 - 88 (down 40%).
JSE 109 - 81 (down 25.5% yet oil production re-established much sooner).
DEC 125 - 110 (down 12.5%.)
HBR 550 - 303 (down 45% with windfall tax issue as well).
i3 Energy 32 - 23 (down 28%).
GKP 310 - 238 (down 23%).
HUR 11.5 - 6.4 (down 44%).
Tullow 61 - 40.6 (down 33%).
Kosmos 665 - 460 (down 30%)
Save 40.9 - 30.8 (down 24%).

Reduced exposure while inferring there's murk at the company sounds like it's no coincidence. I wish you well, Agadem and thanks for your contributions.

My view is the C-C deal will clear in time and the current fall is unrelated. The price has broadly tracked the sector. We have to tolerate uncertainty holding SAVE - clearly other deals are coming so it starts again.

Took a small 100k at 30.374 after a fair decent pullback and it's not unsurprising in these markets and after a fairly steep rise.

Hopefully (i say) that when the Chad Cameroon acquisitions go through, we might see a further $50-$60m off the settlement price to the end of June given the high oil price over the past 6 months and still $101/b today a week into July.

New gas contracts maybe worth $20m+ that we didn't have this time last year ?

Well, not one to get too involved with these boards anymore, but broadly i see the market following the media (people believe anything these days..!) about a looming recession. We can predict the future now dont you know.
i see the price action here as linked to that.
FWIW, i dont see a recession on the cards. I have just signed a contract for services that is roughly double what i was getting in 2017 when we had a bit of a rough patch in the "energy sector" as its now called (oilfield)!. in property, i am still seeing a squeeze for trades and materials, and good investment appetite in new developments. lenders want to lend.
I also dont believe in the pending property crash that seems to be expected by the masses. a sentiment led lull perhaps.
I think the current action is fear and sentiment led, and this is a buying opportunity accross the market.
for SAVE, it always gives the niggle that there is bad news looming because of the stage it is at in regards to the pending deal completion, but on balance i did not have those concerns before the wider sell off, so i do not have them now. all thats happened is the price has changed.
all this is clearly my opinion, just thought i would put it out there.

Might be a bit reckless, but ive put my money where my mouth is and opened a 5k per point long position this morning here. Lets see where that goes.

A buy signal if ever there was one. Peak bearish comments are being reached on here and elsewhere, usually when that happens the price starts going in the opposite direction. The same applies for peak bullish comments i.e. when people boast about how much money they're making, how high the share price is going to get and how they're buying more...

The manic depressive nature of investors / traders posted on comment boards for ALL market participants to see.

To be clear I welcome all informative comments about oil and O&G stocks and I don't mind the manic depressive ones either.

All my opinion, this is not an inducement to trade this stock

Thanks for all your great, honest posts, Agadem.

I’m going to say it (and get a pile of stick); this is beginning to price for the CC deal falling through. Point taken on it being down with other energy stocks, but given the fixed price gas contracts and midstream stuff, it probably shouldn’t be.

Still my biggest position and I haven’t sold a thing. I’m really hoping CC gets announced asap, but I’m getting nervous.

Big changes all round within a few hours. Just read the board. Best to you A, in health and everything else. You’ve been amazing. Just don’t leave us all behind disappearing for good, don’t think you will anyway:) Enjoy your profits. Much love, x. (Your post does worry me a bit!)
UK currently is in free fall it seems?? Sad. How could we ever be in this state? Sigh.

I took Agadems point to be about the culture/working practices within the Save.l HQ building itself ... and nothing to do with CC deals completing or the timeframes in which they complete....

Re CC Deal completion: Africa timeframes / deadline meeting have always been different to Western World equivalents

Big oil up nearly 4%, we are down 4% on pretty flat POO, does Agadem have a point, volume pretty good this morning, is there a problem with the deals other than employee pay settlement ?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/saudi-crude-oil-price-hike-set-collide-with-recession-fears-russell-2022-07-07/

Like we all do, it's absolutely right you make whatever decisions that you feel are best for you, whenever, Agadem.

As you're going to keep a position here that will likely still be plenty larger than most other PI holders, I'm hoping you stay reasonably engaged with this BB and the company/ it's IR... etc too.. The value you've added here so far has been enormous in that context and indeed sundry wider contexts, and it would be sad/bad to lose that... and hopefully you'd see it in your interest too to keep probing and analysing and feeding back here as you have done, even if to a proportionally lesser extent.

PS: Given this s/p is still down only in line with the wider market and its peers, even after some punchy Agadem selling - in a generally horrible stock market environment for months now - I'm not unhappy with where this s/p currently stands

will pick up business from first world when it talks itsself to a standstill....they have cheap labour, plenty of energy supplies and a young entrepeneurial population with increasingly urbanised lifestyles....and their export routes don't require Suez Canal or Gulf.....if you ignore the 'noise' this share's got a lot of positives

Fair enough good luck, we could do without another 2008 market crash

Yes good luck Agadem, always wise to lock in some profit. Fundemantals not changed here lets hope C/C deal is days and a couple of weeks max away and not months.

Good luck Agadem going forward.

Whilst I still firmly believe that SAVE will do very well over time, I do not like the current global indicators which could quite possibly get a whole lot worse. I also think there is a chance that the SP may not respond in the way in which we all hope when the next bunch of RNS’s are issued. It maybe that the market wants to see the actual numbers in future H1 and finals before we get true recognition for what is happening (look at the 5 from 5 in Niger back in 2018 - we may have not even bother drilling from the SP reaction we saw back then).

Having been in here for a long time with a large holding I have been sitting on a 1 bagger and over recent times have decided to crystallise some of my profits and will probably continue to do so over the short term.

It is therefore with regret that I need to remove my pledge to donate the 2 x £1,000 charity donations should we reach 47p and 68p.

Yes I know this could also very well backfire on me and that the SP could also rocket on Q3 & Q4 news but that is a risk I have decided to take and a risk worth taking. Should that happen, I will be still holding enough to do very well out of any future potential rise.

I will still be posting on here and be pro SAVE moving forward but you will now be seeing a lot less of me. Thanks to Zengas (for many years) and a few others for their very knowledgeable posts on here and I look forward to continue reading them over the coming periods.

I hope you all do well with your holdings as I hope I do with mine. I just felt it was right with such a large holding to lock some profits in and take some of my large risk out.

Finally, I am levelling up with you and I just wish that AK would level up with us too. I’m not going in to any details or posting in public but I do feel that a few things aren’t quite as they should be back at SAVE HQ.

As ever GLA and catch you all soon.

I get the impression that some people don’t look at the bigger picture and its not because someone is dumping SAVE shares specifically but the whole oil sector is down.

If you were to plot SAVE share performance against SPOG (oil and gas ETF) since the 1st January this year they are extremely correlated and SAVE has only out performed by a few percent.

Think SAVE has potential to continue to outperform the oil sector in the future but I’m under no illusions that the oil and gas sector may continue to decline for the next few months depending on the macro outlook of recessions that are highly likely.

Everyone needs to make there own trading decisions but quite often they look to blame other people when price doesn’t go as hoped. I’ve made my own decisions and have no regrets selling approximately 50% of my holdings near the recent highs(maybe this was just luck). I fully intend to buy back in but I’m waiting for the oil sector to finish declining as I believe that will have the biggest influence on SAVE share price in the next 1-2months.

I respectfully disagree. Not everyone has a motive.

Everyone has an agenda Mr B
eg Most everyone's elses persistent positive posting here makes me think they all have an agenda :-)