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So I guess that would put the Petronas share at about 40kboepd, a lot less and Han the 50k / 60k we’ve been working on to try and estimate our balance payment.
Let’s hope we stay suspended for another 6 months to get the balance payment meant down to what we were calculating LOL
Better be careful what I wish for eh?
From the report, the average barrels per day from Jan 2022 (assuming that is the effective date) up to July2023 has been just under 118,000.
Bloomberg article showing previous months Soutrh Sudan shipments
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-14/oil-exports-continue-to-flow-as-sudan-s-war-leaves-pipeline-untouched
Very strange number for March, especially as it’s exactly 50% of the current number. I suspect the March number may not be correct. Certainly hope is incorrect as low numbers like that would be significantly affecting our balancing payment at closure of the SS Petronas deal. And the higher the figure the higher the chance of equity being issued in my opinion.
Sudan Oil Exports Rising Despite Conflict
By Alex Kimani - Aug 14, 2023,
Crude exports by South Sudan have climbed to their highest level in almost two years despite an ongoing war between Sudan's government forces and a paramilitary group that erupted in April. Crude shipments now average 154,839 barrels per day, about double March's figure at 77,419 barrels per day.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sudan-Oil-Exports-Rising-Despite-Conflict.html
The budget covers a salary uplift of 400% for payment of civil servants and state officials. 10% of the budget is dedicated to defence and security, presumably partly related to concerns re Sudan. The increased spending, current budget deficit, the recent international oil conference saying the country was open for business, the lack of investment by Petronas, Save’s statement about upscaling, etc, all suggest that signing off should be a priority. - I’m unable to determine whether that is a statement of faith or reason!
Thanks MR B for posting source
Https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/annual-budget-passed-amid-splm-io-walkout
TiL - thats better news if it’s now signed off. As the opposition walked out Friday, there must have been a quick change to get them back in and get it all agreed. Can you please post your source of information stating it’s signed?
RockyRide - If you are referring to budget approval than it was approved late on friday evening.............................
Sorry it copied the whole page of African news. Scroll don to this bit which I was referring to:-
South Sudan opposition boycotts budget session
This could well be holding us up and there will be nothing that Savannah can do to speed things up. the more and more I speak to people, read things and think about it, the more and more I think we will be forced to come back at the end of September with or without Government signature.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-66073092
Z - indeed and I think it will be larger than our suspension market cap and less than the enlarged market cap, assuming SS successful closure. My concern is that should SS fail and the other hydrocarbon still takes place, we go from one RTO suspension ending and another beginning during closed market hours and no time for resumption of trading.
We are in a very precarious position at the moment with no grey area, that is totally black and white and all based on the successful closure on the current Petronas purchase.
And I still think we are all over quite a large hydrocarbon acquisition in Cameroon, utilising the Cotco piece of the pipeline.
Thanks RR
You would think that with AK saying they expected to get at least one other acquisition over the line before year end, that by now it must be fairly advanced in the background with just a quarter and half remaining.
The will give zero value uplift to the SS deal on re-admission, without a govt. sign off.
Thanks Rocky - all that & your conclusions make perfect sense. Your sharing is very much appreciated.
One assumes/hope Petronas is also pretty engaged with SAVE in requesting SS Gov for timely signing. I hope also reassuring SS Gov over the potential off-take for the Pre-Export Financing. But these are my guesses only.
DYOR
Good weekend all!
Thanks for sharing RR, much appreciated.
We got very high level gov buy in in SS before SPA signed
Nothing changed operationally since SPA signed but politics changed due to minister changes and Sudan war
I think SS gov see priority is dealing with Sudan war and change of company in country not top of their agenda
AK spending most of his time in SS trying to get gov sign off. I get impression other work streams complete
We need auditor sign off for H1 financials and auditor sign off for ad doc
SAVE trying to get auditor to do the above as one process for both and determined to get done by 29/9
I can’t see ad doc being issued before 29/9, I suspect 2 RNS on that day for H1 financials and ad doc
Made very clear to me at beginning of call we do not need gov sign off to issue ad doc and relist but AK does not want to come back W/O gov sign off and be in another Chad situation
I think nomad may say enough is enough and you need to comeback on 29/9 even if W/O gov sign off
AK cards close to chest re next SPA
We are still getting paid for 41% of Costco but nothing for Doba or Totco - as we knew would be the case
No update on ICC case to me of where Coup in niger leaves well test or 2 x renewable deals
Accugas debt still making progress but no indication of timeframes
My summary, I think we could well come back on 29/9 with 2 x RNS, preferably with gov sign off but may be forced to come back without. Whether AK gets sign off before then is anybodies guess. All seems good to me on the whole as a company but the next phase of our evolution is all down to one single humungous signature.
PS massive thanks to the person on the phone this morning, I was massively impressed with your depth and breadth of knowledge. thank you for your time, professionalism and sharing with me what you were allowed to.
Have a good weekend all and hopefully a lot more to talk about 7 weeks today with resumption of trading at 8.00am on 2nd October.
'Ag Boula’s statement will worry the coup leaders given his influence among Tuaregs who control commerce and politics in much of the vast north'
9/8/23
'Ex-rebel leader Boula moves against Niger coupists, forms resistance group
A former rebel leader and politician in Niger has launched a movement opposing the junta that took power in a July 26 coup.
This is the first sign of internal resistance to army rule in the strategically important Sahel country.
Rhissa Ag Boula said in a statement on Wednesday that his new Council of Resistance for the Republic (CRR) aimed to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who had been in detention at his residence since the takeover.
The CRR supports ECOWAS and any other international actors seeking to restore constitutional order in Niger, according to Mr Boula’s statement,
A CRR member said several Nigerien political figures had joined the group but could not make their allegiance public for safety reasons.
Mr Boula played a leading role in uprisings by Tuaregs, a nomadic ethnic group present in Niger’s desert north, in the 1990s and 2000s.
Like many former rebels, he was integrated into the government under Mr Bazoum and his predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou.
While the extent of support for the CRR is unclear, Mr Boula’s statement would worry the coup leaders given his influence among Tuaregs, who control commerce and politics in much of the vast north.
Support from Tuaregs would be key to securing the junta’s control beyond Niamey’s city limits.
https://gazettengr.com/ex-rebel-leader-boula-moves-against-niger-coupists-forms-resistance-group/
Reported also by Reuters and ALJazeera.
and
'Why Niger Military Junta should be afraid of Rhissa Ag Boula.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzhaBVYw3lM
*****sh*t and ******bottom
looking strong at the moment. the battle is between weak economies and potential recessions vs tightness in supply. china growth is a bit tepid, us jobs market cooling and germany looking a bit weaker than expected. we just have a **** government that does not know it’s **** from its elbow. but with a massive 15m draw last week in the us, along with ksa & russia (allegedly) cutting production, the market is very tight regarding supply. with huge cuts in capex over the last 8 years and the us rig count only in the 600’s and falling about 5 a week, i think the outlook for oil is very strong.
i won’t beat the drum a lot about it but we all know what this is doing for the balance payment for south sudan should it complete.
ps has the war in sudan ended or have the journalists simply moved to the sahel?
Leaders of Niger's ruling military junta say they can't accept a high-level diplomatic visit because there'd be a risk to the visitors' security.
Delegates from the regional grouping Ecowas, the African Union and the United Nations had been due to fly in today.
But the coup leaders told Ecowas that sanctions and the threat of invasion from the bloc had created public anger, so the delegation couldn't be hosted with calm and in security.
They added that Niger's land and air borders were closed.
Reports from the capital Niamey say many people have greeted the coup as a breath of fresh air, even though the toppled President, Mohamed Bazoum, was democratically elected.
Washington has warned there's a danger Russian Wagner mercenaries will take advantage of Niger's coup.
The Junta seemingly building their empire in Niger:-
Niger junta leader Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani has named a former finance minister as the new prime minister following the 26 July coup.
Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine replaces Mahamadou Ouhoumoudou, who was in Europe during the coup.
Mr Zeine, reported to be in his 50s, served as cabinet director and finance minister from 2001 until the overthrow of the late former President Mamadou Tandja by the army in 2010.
His appointment was announced in a statement read on state-owned television channel Télé Sahel on Monday night by a junta spokesperson.
Mr Zeine has worked for the African Development Bank in Chad, Ivory Coast and Gabon in recent years, according to the privately-owned ActuNiger news website.
The junta on Monday also appointed Brig Gen Amadou Didilli as the head of the country’s High Authority for Peace Consolidation (HACP) and Brig Gen Abou Tague Mahamadou as the inspector general of the army and the national gendarmerie.
It named Col Ibro Amadou Bachirou the private chief of staff of the junta leader and Lt Col Habibou Assoumane as the commander of the presidential guard.
And I’d be interested on the Chinese view of this!!!
Niger coup: Wagner taking advantage of instability - Antony Blinken https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66436797