Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Clear pro investment step changes happening to upstream regulations in Nigeria
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-nnpc-oil-majors-agree-shorten-talks-contracts-2023-09-25/
Longshort - Could be I wonder if anyone has been in touch with IR since Rocky's update on Monday................................
Last update with extension came day before deadline so will we see update tomorrow with further extension and interims friday as i think further extension is ever more likely now.
Surely we are engaging with the govt to see if we are actually wanted in country or not ?
Lol, yes, not quite as good as getting it in one lump. If it pays for AK's performance bonus each year then I'd probably settle for that :-)
Should cover some minuscule acquisition cost
Thanks Zengas. The amounts received by Fenikso from LOGI each month so far have been in the order of $800,000. Save get 25% of this until the $16m debt is repaid so looks like we'll be getting about $2.5m a year for the next 6-7 years.
From Fenikso today 26/3/23
' Fenikso is the restructured holding company that used to be called Lekoil Limited. The Company holds one main asset which is a US$51.9 million loan made to Lekoil Oil & Gas Investments ("LOGI"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Lekoil Nigeria.
Net assets of the Company at the end of the Reporting Period were $19.3 million. Cash balances as at the end of the Reporting Period were $1.09 million.
PERATIONS REPORT AND ASSET SUMMARY
The principal business of the Company is to manage and ensure the full recovery of the LOGI Loan. The Company has received payments under the LOGI Loan as at the end of 30 June 2023 amounting to $2,615,472. A further $1,543,240 has since been received post 30 June 2023.
Outlook
The Company intends to repay all creditors as well as the first instalment of the Savanah Energy loan repayment before the end of the year. Once these steps have been taken the Company will look to build its cash position before deciding how best to deploy the cash it builds up.
Following the Settlement Deed, the Company entered into a loan agreement with Savannah Energy pursuant to which the Company agreed to pay Savannah Energy certain upfront payments together with 25% of all amounts received by the Company from LOGI pursuant to the LOGI Loan, subject to a maximum total payment of approximately $16,256,159. '
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/fenikso-limited--fnk/interim-results/7777271
Might be something to consider but after the number of gas contracts already signed and operating are we constrained in anyway given that there is always the possibility at any time that customers who are taking 80% TOP say they want to take more or all of their DCQ.
I say this on the basis that if you add them all up they mightn't be able to supply the contracted demand ??
They supplied 145 mmcf/d last year all from UQUO - that's the average and we know that 3 contracts didn't start until June last year and 1 more signed in August 2022 - so capacity could be tight/tightening.
Also the compression project is to complete next year so undoubtedly that's needed for expansion.
Then If you think about the AMOCON deal signed just there in May and operational - SAVE is buying the gas from them ie up to 20 mmcf/d and perhaps in trying to understand the points i make above - " Gas purchased from AMOCON does not require processing by Accugas and therefore does not utilise available capacity at the Uquo CPF" (which is to 200 mmcf/d and following compression up to 240 mmcf/d potential).
Is this a sign that they are buying in that gas so as to be able to make sure they have that gas to fulfil their existing contracts as well as have capacity for new ones - otherwise just sell our own Uquo gas.
In light of the timeline of those contracts having started it will be interesting to see this years full average compared to the average sales of 145 mmcf/d last year.
Worth adding that as far as i'm aware customers pay for their own connections so who knows there could be deals afoot.
I've no doubt the gas opportunity for SAVE is huge.
Heard it before - but the expansion and near doubling of Stubb Creek oil is sheduled next year - so this could be viewed short term as replacing Niger income re the1-1.5k bopd there which was expected Q1-2 2024 ?
I said a few times that judging from all the other deals that other companies are involved in, all i can find from the time of a SPA, it appears it's adm doc, put to shareholder vote and then wait for approvals in due course as timeline of doing things. Whatever went on over the weekend it could be viewed that the govt keeps it's options open ie approval not yet fully given until the last, otherwise i don't think that what was announced yesterday would have been allowed to happen in the first place.
The adm doc and relisting could well come anytime from SAVE but i'm still not convinced it will come with govt approval at the same time - personally expecting it in the order of above (unless the whole thing is unfortunately not proceeeded with).
I think Cplloyd has a valid point in that chasing acquisitions has cost us in terms of share price - but i view that in the light of the debacle over Chad where if it had went smoothly the reverse would have happened ie share price would have been much higher and we may not have been suspended now at all for this past 9 months.
Let's say we had stuck with just Accugas and on the 996m shares it would be more like 62p instead of it being around 45p on the present f/diluted number based on an $800m net valuation for the Nigerian asset net debt free. We were playing for 80p-100p f/diluted with Chad and i still see that with S.Sudan if it goes through regardless of wining arbitration over Chad.
We shouldn't lose sight of the importance of Accugas. They've ramped up on the number of contracts and thus income that should really kick in versus everything else that has happened. If they hadn't those new deals, uplift in revenue then i would question it if it was any good in the 1st place. So the extra income even from 1 year imo can be justified in paying towards negotiating those new deals. I don't view it as costing us on such a narrow timescale given the size of the deals/potential uplift. Over the longer term we will get a decent return on the Lekoil involvement - thats paying for somthing. I'm only looking at a fairly static value of $800m net for Accugas/Nigeria but think it will be worth a fair bit more in due course.
I just wonder will the net debt be paid down even faster if there is no immediate committment to spend in Niger. I think our interests are fairly safe and will be respected and there's a minimum if i recall of $100m back costs and 33 mmbo 2C which on a sanctioned dev plan will convert to reserves - so minimum all round i'm leaning to at least $100m all in worst case for Niger overall or 5.5p - so i still think as we stand SAVE has a value of about 50p to come through just letting Accugas perform/edge into net cash from a net debt position in the timeline stated and everything else not in the share price picture.
Haha talk about damage limitations they have clearly realised that the media had caught on that Caltech is a sham entity and now they are trying to justify themselves so they don't appear incompetent
https://www.eyeradio.org/finance-minister-says-no-deal-with-u-s-based-oil-firm-yet/
Personally i don't see why there would be any restrictions to providing operational updates such as ne gas sales agreements....................
I am not referring to further SPA's as I know they may be rules around new SPA's that but I was expecting a Q2 update which was surprising that it didn't come...................................................
I think they’re either hiding behind this deal or being advised to say as little as possible while ICC cases run. I’m convinced if everything was BAU that we’d have been told more, especially from what’s going on in Nigeria.
RockyRide - Are you suggesting that the company are not allowed to rns other news until the the admission document ?
As things stand I’d be happy to come back with ad doc and re-list without SS Gov approval. This would hopefully allow us to RNS more news in other areas of the business but more importantly announce new SPA(s) for other inorganic hydrocarbon growth. This would start to build more value into the SP and cushion the blow should SS not complete for any reason. Yes the market would not like this at day 1 but I think we can expect fun and games whatever happens now. This is still a compelling share to hold for me and I know we have to keep trying but the $15m / $20m per transaction costs are starting to build up and given all the ICC costs along with huge expensive FTE growth, we really do need to see a new strong revenues stream in the near future.
The acquisitions are on the books by virtue of the resources allocated to them thus far (time/money). I agree Accugas is our crown jewell and whilst I believe it justifies the current share price(& more) I don't see that the market will see it it that way when holders assess the progress that has been made elsewhere ... hopefully we will not have to find out and resisting will be on the back of good news (even if that isn't the SS assets).
What a rollercoaster ride this share is.
At least all this 'messiness' is playing out through a share suspended period !
And I'm now a bit more confident again that our share suspension will continue for a reasonable while yet.... which I'd be all for... indeed very thankful for.
Cplloyd threat to existing business is minimal we haven't really kicked of Niger work programme. As for Nigeria our accugas asset continues to throw off material cashflow so threats you refer to are linked to acquisitions and acquisitions that aren't yet on the books can not be viewed as threats......... and vice versa
Think there are other factors to add over pre June 2021. The entire region seems to be even less stable, particularly Niger, the deals that we have tried to do have bloated the size of the company for seemingly no additional revenue, the legal bills must be through the roof and money seems to be promised left, right and centre to renewable deals on the basis that hydro carbon revenues are going to go through the roof. In addition, we are further diluted as there was a fund raise for Chad.
Accugas debt looked like it would refinanced but that has also been a constant thorn in the side.
This share is clearly high risk and anyone invested will hopefully have realised that anyway but the reality is Chad may or may not get sorted in a favourable way, Niger may or may not start producing and be caused problems by the ongoing political issues and SS may or may not go through (if it does it may or may not be impacted by issues with Sudan). The likely outcome of a relist with the company no further on than before is horrendous for existing holders as there will be little patience for positive resolutions of all these ongoing opportunities/threats.
Zengas - Most people are short sighted and let emotions get the better if you were pre June 2021 holder when the acquisition strategy was not in place and the share price was 19p or so and you were a happy holder knowing that at that point Savannah could be a 50p+ company through accugas and niger alone. Most people have started to get their knickers into the twist............................. regarding acquistions..
With every passing day net debt will turn into net cash with the accugas asset which has potential to double or even triple production from new gas contracts.
Niger - Benin pipeline completion looming and could kick start things there as well..............................
AIM listed Wentworth Resources reference - 5 December 2022, the boards of Wentworth and M&P announced that they had reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all cash offer by M&P for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Wentworth (the "Acquisition"). The Acquisition was approved by Wentworth Shareholders at the Court Meeting and the General Meeting which were held on 23 February 2023, but remains subject to the satisfaction or (where capable of being waived) waiver of the other Conditions to the Acquisition.
These Conditions include, inter alia, (i) consent from the Minister responsible for petroleum affairs in Tanzania under the Petroleum Act 2015 (the "Act") and any other applicable laws; (ii) the waiver of any right of first refusal or pre-emption right to which the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation is entitled in respect of the Mnazi Bay asset; and (iii) approval from the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission ("FCC"), in each case on terms satisfactory to M&P, acting reasonably.
On 11 July 2023, Wentworth was notified that the FCC has issued a decision notice that application for FCC approval shall not be determined at this time and that this application will be marked closed by the FCC.
Following this, there have been a number of discussions between the parties to the offer including recent meetings in country between the CEO of Wentworth and relevant Tanzanian government stakeholders, as well as the CEO of M&P and relevant Tanzanian stakeholders, to seek to bring the Acquisition to a successful conclusion before the agreed 31 December 2023 Long Stop Date, including at the highest levels of government in Tanzania.
There has been positive progress in these discussions, although there can be no certainty that the Conditions will be satisfied or (where capable of being waived), waived by M&P. The Company and M&P are working towards the satisfaction or (where capable of being waived) waiving of the Conditions in Q4 2023.'
As for Perenco - BLVN etinde for reference https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/agm-presentation-08-12-2021.pdf
No not suggesting that SAVE are after Etinde - although we do know that they said they were evaluating other hydrocarbon deals in Cameroon.
What i'm saying is that all these deals are difficult to wade through and i've always said not unique to SAVE. On the other board i've seen the CEO lambasted for bringing us into this. If we want the same kind of deals that everybody else is trying to build and grow from in moving their companies higher up the value chain, it's the price we pay on the emotional swings. Some others think that we are the only company doing this or somehow learn a lesson from it. I'm sure SAVE and its negotiating teams and their advisors who specialise in asset transactions are well versed in these matters. As far as i can see SAVEs net debt on its Nigerian asset will be eliminated in 24 months or less - so we are left with an $800m minimum asset (45p) still able to grow in value. This doesn't affect what happens re S.Sudan but peoples emotions will never think of this in the short term re value.
Perenco is a 270k boepd producer with about 85k in Cameroon - so i wonder why a deal for them is taking so long to get approval there especially when they are such an established operator in that country.
This only adds to my recent posts on the timelines and delays for not only SAVE in various countries but for other companies that i highlighted in August and September from when SPAs were signed.
Afentra - 3 in Angola - 2 pending, Save - Nigeria (how long was that), Chad completed with issues, - S.Sudan pending. Seplat a very long established operator in Nigeria yet from 25/2/22 Exxon Nigeria still delayed. M&Prom Assala Gabon pending. Now Perenco deal in Cameroon long delayed. Even AIM listed Wentworths takeover by M & Prom was turned down first time around by relative safe haven Tanzania. These are only the deals in the last 12-24 months.
Zengas - Wouldn't surprise me I did hear that we were interested in upstream assets in Cameroon so wouldn't come as a total surprise.
I agree with Rob this will not be agreed by Friday and I don’t see it’ll ever be agreed. All isn’t good judging by the silence from the company. Don’t look forward to reopening. Good luck all as we really need it.
Zen, I hope you're not suggesting that we may be getting involved in Etinde! Taking on development risk for a greenfield gas development offshore Cameroon may be a prompt for me to sell out.....
Re Cameroon contd -
'The Company notes that SNH's approval, the next key milestone towards completion of the Transaction, has remained outstanding for a significant period and it remains uncertain when a decision will be made by SNH whether to approve the Transaction, if at all.
Whilst Bowleven is not a party to Transaction discussions, the Company understands that, although the formal long-stop date under the agreement between New Age and Perenco passed on the 30th June 2023, both parties continue to seek to progress with the Transaction. The extended delay, with no established timeline to closing of the Transaction, has created uncertainty as regards potential additional risks associated with the Etinde project and the Company is currently considering a fundraising proposal from a shareholder which contemplates the shareholder providing equity capital at a very substantial discount to the current market price of Bowleven's ordinary shares.'