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RR if SS crosses the line and if and its a big if Gabon is the next deal i believe we would come back trading and AK will have sounded out the market to whether this would constitute another RTO or not as i am sure he would also want it back trading.
I expect another after hours RNS as opposed to 7.00am as he doesn't no need to provide to market pre open.
Would a Gabon deal be classed as an RTO (striaght into another back to back suspension) with SS success? And what is the definitive point of SS being classed by the stock market as done in order to have a far bigger market cap. Would it be at the point of AD being issued or on final Gov sign off post AD and shareholder vote, should that be the timeline?
W/O SS success I assume we would go back to back into another suspension if we were to take on the Gabon deal and who knows when trading would resume. I hope the NOMAD and stockmarket will call time on this roundabout at some point in the near future and enforce us to list again. I hope to see some context around this tomorrow, if SAVE keep their promise to update us during the course of the next week - which is by 7.00am in the morning!
TIL, Been thinking more about this and just maybe in this weeeks update not only will we get more detail on what i going on in Sudan but hopefully we will be updated on Nigeria and Niger comprehensively , possible insight into Chad (though i imagine the company line is still say nothing ).
Then for the icing on the cake is the Gabon deal where Vitol have been pressuring Gabon that they will lend them the money on the condition that Savannah partner 50/50 split on both borrowing and ownership with Vitol receiving the offtake. (Hopefully also get some discount from Carlyle if Vitol providing finance and not them having to do it themselves).
Who knows it may well just happen.
With CPF facility progressing and hopefully completing in the next few months alongside new gas contracts and increased volumes to gas power customers as well as commercial customers will significantly further enhance the value generated by the accugas business.
The Federal Government has increased the price of gas to generate power from $2.18 Metric per Million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) to $2.42 MMBtu.
Approx 10% by my reckoning
Interesting to see Nigeria has increased the baseline gas prices for gas supplied to power generation companies and gas supplied to commercial companies.
https://www.naijanews.com/2024/04/01/breaking-tinubu-govt-increases-gas-to-power-price/
Like the majority here I am a regular reader of all posts here, but post infrequently.
I am incredibly grateful for those posters who not only carry out their analysis and share it with us, but also those who contact the company, via IR, and share their views here too. Always very informative, within the confines of what the company is allowed to say.
Anyone is entitled to be in regular contact with IR, and the company are obliged to respond, and they will keep a log of all communications - and phone calls will be recorded. I have spoken to them in a couple of occasions for clarification on a few things.
For someone to suggest an individual (or “snide”) is gaining some sort of advantage is preposterous.
Stand up for yourself Smeddyo and report this chat board to the FCA if you think the company have been unethical. I know you will be proved very wrong.
Hope for good news in the next week or two.
Vitol in exclusives discussion, surely they would want a credible operator to run the fields for their loan.
I like this bit “ Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department.”
Could Vitol provide a loan and savannah be the operator with the government having a greater profit share.
National oil firm under pressure to raise funds for Carlyle assets
The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether Gabon's junta is able to raise the necessary $1.3bn to clinch the transaction with the American company.
An agreement under which the Gabon Oil Co (GOC) buys Carlyle's oil assets in the country was struck under the gaze of television cameras and in the presence of junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema on 15 February. Ever since, Libreville has been frantically trying to raise the required $1.3bn by the deal's May deadline. The GOC has undertaken to pay a substantial deposit of several tens of millions of dollars, and must now set about finding the rest. If it fails, Carlyle could grant GOC an extension or decide to prolong its oil activities in the country. Production is currently estimated at 45,000b/d.
Geneva-based oil trader Vitol is in exclusive discussions with the GOC to contribute a significant chunk of the purchase price. In exchange, Vitol hopes to obtain the right to market the assets' output. Its optimism is all the greater now that the Société Gabonaise de Raffinage has settled its debts to the trader (AI, 12/02/24). Until the end of the exclusivity period, GOC cannot enter into talks with new potential partners.
Under special adviser's gun
For Carlyle, the February deal was signed by Bob Maguire, head of the Carlyle International Energy Partners fund, which directly owns the assets acquired from Shell in 2017. The Gamba oil fields and terminal are operated by Assala Energy, which is run by Tullow Oil veteran David Roux.
The buyer was represented by GOC CEO Marcellin Simba Ngabi, who used to work for TotalEnergies. The pressure on Simba Ngabi is so great that the matter is being closely monitored by Gabon's transitional head of state via his special adviser on mining, hydrocarbons and energy, Arnauld Calixte Engandji-Alandji, a former director of GOC.
‘Gabon-ising' the economy
Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department -, the Turkish trader BGN and Indian groups have also been mentioned as potential partners. However, none has made a strong enough commitment for exclusive discussions to be concluded.
The only certainty is that Maurel & Prom (Pertamina) is definitely out of the running. The group, already heavily involved in the country, signed a sale and purchase agreement with Carlyle last August, just before president Ali Bongo was toppled. However, when Nguema came to power, the new administration quickly decided to pre-empt the deal, making it a symbol of the "Gabon-isation" of the economy championed by the junta leader, who officially announced this decision in November, and reaffirmed it during his 31 December address to the country.
Firstly, a big thanks to all the regular posters on here who supply excellent content and debate in Savannah. Whilst it has been frustrating for many of us shareholders on the length of the suspension, I really do hope AK’s luck changes somewhat for the better.
Secondly, I am not a regular poster at all but fail to see how a cryptic analysis of someone’s feedback from IR, can establish them as not acting in good faith. It is tantamount to slander imho.
RR et al please please keep up the faith and the excellent feedback. Happy Easter to all…..
Well I guess at times it’s impossible to please everyone. I personally feel enormous gratitude towards all the good contributors. Without you all, especially Zengas, I’d have sold @10p, or below. I’m happy for the Rocky-return, after the Aga-hiatus. Happy Easter Monday! Rns Tues 7am?
This imo is one of the best boards I have experienced where everyone tries to help everyone else. RockyRide makes a major contribution and it is much appreciated by almost everyone. I regret I am unable to pay you such a compliment.
Smeddyo: I for one am very grateful for the time and effort RR puts into contacting IR and summarising the conversations on this board. IR are open to questions from all of us but most do not make that effort.
As your most recent post is little more than a rephrased version of your last post on 8th July 2023 I’ll limit the effort I put into this post by simply repeating Komakino’s reply.
“Smeddyo, nothing IR give out is price sensitive so I'm not sure what advantage you think is being gained over other investors. It can be useful to have them clarify certain things in RNS's or from presentations, and sometimes to confirm published plans are on track etc, so nothing untoward with getting information from them.”
I find your regular contact with IR deeply unethical from SAVE's side. I recall you "having a feeling things would go quiet" for a while and selling a portion of your holding - and no dobt vice versa.. It stinks. The company is a joke allowing snides to gain an advantage.
The last thing I’d want would be issuing equity unless it was at a significant premium to 26.35p. I would not be adverse to issuing Petronas 20% of our company in shares as a part payment for the balance we owe from the $1.25bn - economic interest payment. Let’s say the balancing payment at deal closure is $400m.
With 1.412bn shares fully diluted we would need to issue Petronas with 353m shares giving us a new shares in issue number of 1.765bn. For the 353m shares I would want to see a minimum of 40p which is 50.4c @ fx 1.26. This would equate to $178m coming of the $400m leaving $222m to be paid for from future production.
On another note I was looking through all my transactions on SAVE while by yet pool this afternoon. I hold them in various accounts and what a crazy trip I have been on:-
First purchase 42p July 2015
Continued to buy all the way down with my lowest buy price 8p in March 2020
Bought well over half my holding sub 10p
Continued to by all the way up and got spiked in June 2022 @ 40p
Continued to buy all the way down to Nov 2022
Bought 1m in the 23’s in Nov 2022 anticipating a decent rise upon Chad closure
God knows what we will re-emerge at and to be honest, the way I feel at the moment, I’d be more than happy if we came back at 26.35p. Yes this would be disappointing after all we have hoped for, but I still do fear coming back in the teens and having to wait a few more years before true value is realised. However, the recent deal in Nigeria does give me some comfort and let’s all hope we see a descent rise this year due to what we could possibly achieve in Niger. On top of those, the ICC cases and debt restructure could give significant leg-ups if and when we see positive outcomes on them both.
If we invited Petronas to become shareholders in the enlarged group of Savannah could it convince SS government in approving the transaction they will still get the comfort that they have Petronas still operating albeit through Savannah shareholding. Perhaps we could offer Petronas 20-25% of the enlarged share capital. I brought this point as I saw that the recent deal announced by Ithaca will see eni take an enlarged share capital in Ithaca and become a major shareholder on completion.
https://www.ft.com/content/ba599bb2-dd8e-4289-a80e-8a4d40ae6395
If the economics still made sense than it wouldn’t be a bad outcome although anything above 20-25% would reduce value enhancement for existing shareholders
The argument for approval at the moment could be that low oil exports and pipeline disruption and government coffers running dry could tempt approval from government if the exit tax or approval fees are tasty and high $100 - $200m dollars and could tempt the government into approval when they are struggling to pay salaries at the moment
Overall I am pleased with the rns for one main reason as it also a window for Q1 2024 update to land by 2 week of April as per usual timelines which will allow for a broader update on the business particularly interested to see plans on Niger being strongly articulated, also interesting to see how the accugas business is performing and if we are still growing our volumes by double percentage production. I always maintained in any circumstance or whatever is the outcome of SS I wanted to come back after the full year results of 2023. So I will be supportive of a further extension until mid June and come to market post full year 2023 results.
As for the rns last week I believe it’s probably to intended to make public the difficulties in completing the South Sudan deal I.e outing the South Sudan investment environment as a difficult place for
Investments. I believe if savannah think they have completed all there workstreams and the only thing now outstanding is government approvals than they are hoping a public statement will shame the government into action, especially with the South Sudan oil conference in June 2024, it could be savannah way of saying to the government you are your own stumbling block to approvals and a public statement could pressure South Sudan government and make it look bad especially when they are also looking to attract investments.
As for deals I believe Andrew should pursue an oil acquisition in Nigeria and if he can land another prior to re-listing that would be a bonus. Even a small acquisition of 10,000 Bopd and 50 million in 2p reserves would take us another level.
I want to remain optimistic on progress and closing of SS but I remain skeptical and believe if a rns does provide more detail next week it would likely be a public outing on the SS approval inaction more than anything else. I for one like all want a positive outcome on SS but let’s see the detail behind the detail that Savannah intend to provide.
The RNS next week could be as strong as savannnah have completed all work streams and if they don’t get approval in the next 6 weeks I.e by 17th May we will terminate the deal and come back to market it could be the final ultimatum to the SS government and a public outing
One more:
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1774026440956072009?s=20
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1773794529268695184
Whilst I'm posting, I'll comment that I do not believe that shareholders will be the intended audience for next week's RNS. But we are probably close to the edge of some sort of denouement.
Happy Easter, everyone.
I'm in a happier mood on this share today...... and very hopefully I'll be staying in said happier mood after:
''The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.''
Happy Easter All
Any of you troops who follow the above, this link may be of interest:
https://abokiforex.app
Scroll down to get the official CBN rates
Almost time for me to come out of hibernation 🥱
I forgot to boast that I’m right again it’s extended. I’m clever 😄 does sound positive can’t wait for more news next week. Log off now. See you soon after Easter. Zengas charge up your battery as it looks we need your write-ups soon.
Feeling positive. Excited to see what lies in store over coming weeks. Home straight indeed (fingers crossed!).