Savannah Energy Share Chat (SAVE)

and nothing sold, or at least no sells showing. It will only affect traders but very strange the bid is firmly held at 7.7p. Rest assured, if those buys this AM were sells, with no buys the SP would have dropped.

I really do wish that AIM was regulated a bit tighter with a few changes. To start with I’d like to see the “real” bid and offer prices displayed and also real-time trades being showing instead of showing either large or after the daily close.

I understand it a bit more complex than that but if a space vessel can automatically land and connect itself to the ISS, I’m sure these things could be improved if the Will was there.

Tier.
I think you have to consider the question: what action would need to be taken to select for a variant of a virus that was less lethal. And then question - is that required action pretty much what we are tending to do.
As I see it, any lethal or very nasty virus strain would obviously show up in those infected, with them becoming very ill - with them presenting, with their notable symptoms, to GPs and hospitals. Subsequent, suitable isolation and precautions and lockdown of contacts would by and large limit the transmission rate for this strain and it would continue to reduce the numbers of new infections ie these actions have that strain slowly dying out. But if there is a more benign strain, arising by way of the virus naturally mutating, it might be considered by those catching it, to be just a cold and so they don't self isolate nor visit GP or hospital - and so this form of the virus goes on to successfully flourish within the population.
Basically a virus that doesn't kill its hosts will prosper more than one that does.

I hope it’s true. But where do those daily 2000 new cases come from after 10 weeks of lockdown?! The country on the whole has been fantastic doing as told. Not even our amazing govt has the answer.

Seriously? Should I apologize? Wish my post was,
‘I’d like to know how much we’ve paid to retain the current licences.’
I love this board but sometimes it’s a little ott.
Good night. Hope it’ll be a good week for us all.

28th May
Oge Peters, Head of Commercial: “Savannah has been producing gas at an increasing rate throughout this crisis to our current customers and is speaking to other power stations about Accugas stepping in to meet their current gas volume deficiency.” #Nigeria #SavannahEnergy #SAVE

This would bounce through the roof if they got rid of the ******* ceo with his **** communication and massive salary

this was heading south long before covid-19. something not right. surprised the ceo has been kept in given the monumental value destruction. o&g sector has bounced but not this carp.

Yes Zengas, agree with you in opportunities going forward and defo a seller/s keeping bottom SP ongoing but struggle to see a upsurge in SP in short term unless some form of declaration from CEO in excellent forward cash flows to ride out the uncertain pandemic issues.

Sorry....distros gencos....

Most oilers have recovered to pre lockdown level, not us. We were around 13, 14p at the time.

Just a reminder of last years CEO statement, methinks it speaks for itself in AK's dismal attitude this year re communications to PI's thereby deflating confidence in future investments from persons who show an interest in this stock. A lot of sellers of this stock before annuals arrive doesn't cite confidence on accruing anymore stock even at this price. Nigerian government requiring loans from world bank due to COVID-19 and doubts on receiving payments for supplied gas is not going to attract investment until AK releases the results either good or bad (most likely the latter as he would have stated the good by now). Still holding as invested for next 18 months though, who knows what will develop in the short term re COVID-19 all over the financial markets..SAVE isn't too big to fail in these unstable times no stock is! Stop kidding yersels on.

CEO statement from 31 may 2019
2018 Audited Annual Results

Despite the obvious value accretion of the Seven Energy Transaction and the exploration success we
have enjoyed in Niger, since announcement of the Transaction our shares have underperformed the
wider index. This followed the period prior to the announcement of the Transaction during which our
shares had outperformed our peers.
.
This underperformance came despite management holding in excess of 120 meetings with investors
and providing regular corporate updates through a variety of media, and appears to have been driven
by an enhanced perception of Transaction completion risk. This comes despite the fact that the
extended completion timetable is a result of the positive amendments to the Transaction discussed
earlier in this letter. We hope and expect that, following completion, we will be able to demonstrate
the full potential of our enlarged asset base and our share price will then perform accordingly.
We are fortunate that both of the core projects we are pursuing have the potential to make material
contributions to the countries in which we operate. In Niger, our ARB project has the potential to
make a material impact on the country’s economic growth rate over the course of the next decade,
while in Nigeria the assets that we are acquiring have the potential to supply approximately 10% of
the country’s power generation requirements. I am proud we have built a business which is working
(and delivering) on such projects, and am very excited about the outlook for Savannah in 2019 and
beyond. I look forward to sharing updates on our business with fellow shareholders over the courseof the coming years.

However, can’t see a lot changing pre results in a few weeks time. Still holding strong and I still fully believe we will see a great return over time. However, am really disappointed with comms, all the mentions of $12.5m dividend, share buy-backs etc. Also apart from AK, very small average holdings from all other Directors and I own more. Can’t understand why they don’t buy if it’s genuinely thought to be so good by AK.

Not sold any here and have been adding for a number of years now. Recently built quite a decent stake in TXP and on paper making good money. Even more recently, started to build a holding in JSE to give me a bit of interest while I keep watching this very slow drying paint.

Let’s hope this comes to life at some point during 2020.

Savannah and its subsidiaries, including Accugas, have invested over US$1.2bn in upstream non-associated gas production, midstream gas processing and a 260km gas transportation and distribution network traversing Akwa Ibom and Cross River States.

Hard to believe this was only 6 month's ago..Yet we are where we are..Take note AK for your upcoming statement..

15 Nov. 2019, 9:25am
StockMarketWire
Savannah Petroleum completes acquisition of Seven Energy assets
Niger and Nigeria focused Savannah Petroleum said it had completed its previously announced deal with Seven Energy.

At a court hearing on Wednesday, administrators were appointed to Seven Energy International and on Thursday effected the transfer of Seven assets to group companies controlled by Savannah and AIIM.

At 9:14am: (LON:SAVP) Savannah Petroleum Plc share price was -0.1p at 26.7p

24 days to go till we all know, should have been published this month but bad news is always difficult to share when your remuneration is going to be cut according to share price.
Not sure how delaying bad news is going to help SP to move upwards..Defo no cash to progress Niger before late 2021 mibbee 2022..AK behaving like Dominic Cummings and treating all PI's with contempt. 5p on bad news no doubts.

SAVP likely to have effectively written this report but can hide behind Cap Access if it all goes horribly wrong.

Obviously paid for research should normally go straight into the bin but with Results four weeks away, it provides a useful and +ve general steer. However, IMO SAVE facing multiple challenges re cash flow and supplies/kit. Suppliers may be going bust /in lockdown and debtors not paying. At least SAVE should be ‘too big to fail’ and Govt will do everything possible to help out.

This is the mother of all f****** tedious stocks to be in. Collapses to record lows and sits there month on month with seemingly no drive from the board to try and reverse the huge crapness of it all! Get cracking on Niger FFS!.

Tier. I will give you my 2pence quickly. The truth is always in the pudding and in the case of HUR AND SAVE you see the graph that resembles investor destruction. Simply put you cannot believe anyone or anything unless you see it for yourself. In the case of HUR I think recovery is possible although they did play the investors by not informing them earlier yet if you followed the charts you would have got out earlier. That’s why you should always set a stop loss.

With regards to SAVE the potential is huge but let me tell you that little R a T ...... AK is toooo quiet and the PR is very concerning here. Although assets they have look good long term I feel there’s more at risk here than meets the eye. Luckily I sold after relist And to think the company is in a way better position now than when I sold shows you the sp at 7p says something else.

I have nothing against anybody posting on any bb but some have just ramped these to the moon and back ..... what really upsets me is they still haven’t stopped. For god sake stick your cash flow and EPS where the dog can’t find it because what your saying and the company officially announced are chalk n cheese. Again the market have save at 7p for a reason. I really hope you guys get your investment back. Good luck.

Being paid reviews/analysis, as they all are, does this mean the company agree it’s only worth 28p?

Thanks for the heads up itsriskythat. Wasn't Capital Access last research note from a couple of months ago TP 54p? I can't find it on SAVE's website now but if so, it's a bit of reduction. Still, I'd take 28p at this point! ;)

Thanks Itsrisky, interesting comments on payments. ‘ What’s new in Nigeria?
• The update confirmed that cash collections totalled $168.8m in FY2019, and that $96m has been collected in the 20 weeks since the deal completed on 15th November. FY20 guidance from 2019 was reiterated at an average of $130m p.a. for 2020-2023.
• Gas production levels are up 34% since its acquisition of Seven Energy, and importantly has proven itself to be a reliable gas supplier when most of its competitors in the country have failed to deliver consistently. This will be noted and serve as a positive driver for Savannah in a country that’s plagued by unplanned blackouts and energy capacity constraints.
• Recent gas supply and payment problems in Nigeria have made investors nervous, but Savannah has continued to supply power stations with no disruption, and has continued to receive payments in return. Its gas now powers c.10% of Nigeria’s power production, so it is a key supplier and enjoys a strong relationship with the government – as well as considerable leverage.
• The new FIPL Afam contract envisages a supply of up to 35 mmcfpd, which at the regulated price of c.$2.50/mcf would result in $32m of cash p.a. Even if we assume the contracted take-or-pay level is a conservative c.75% of this and supply starts in June 2020, that’s $12m of additional cashflow with minimal incremental cash cost – the client pays the connection expenses.
• SAVE reiterated that talks with “several other potential new customers” are “making good progress”, and at current prices gas still provides a significant cost saving to the industrial userbase in the vicinity vs. the diesel generation currently used.
• Clearly given the market environment there have been concerns about cash collection, and this announcement should put those to rest. Further, we believe that given the addition of a new customer and the ongoing discussions, that this guidance is conservative.’

Savannah web-site has a new research article

" Approximately $125MM of costs related to R3/R4 PSC are unrecovered as of 2019 year-end."
(Page 332)
Phase 1 - up to 1500 bopd. ($14.4m total of which $8.1m for the EPF is leased over 2 years).
Phase 2 - 5,000 bopd. ($43.3m).
"The total external funding requirement for Phase 1 and Phase 2, prior to the project becoming self-funding, is estimated at US$57.7m 2020 prices." (Page 329/330).

Is the $50m from the Geneva based oil trading group still available which was announced in Sept 2018 ? - that would cover most of the production set up.

Currently 33 mmbo 2C from 4 discoveries with upside to 105 mmbo appraisal from same.
Further 24 mmbo recoverable mid case potential from deeper targets in 3 of the discovery wells.
$125m to be recovered (10p/share in cost recovery + value of 33 mmbo 2C with a weighted average of $4.80/b when moved to 2P = $158m).

Let's hope this part of the project kicks off later in H2 and a more detailed explanation of how the exploration side will commence in terms of size/duration and cost. Current share price doesn't reflect anything for Niger.

Long term holder who almost never has anything to add. Whilst suffering like many others having watched the value decimated over the years I wondered if any future SAVE dividend would be subject to a with holding tax as described in the Seplat RNS of 19th May.

https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/05/22/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xx/