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I find the first article quite intriguing as the investor confidence is purely driven by them. On one hand they are comparing that the investment sentiment is low and yet they are very slow in approving savannah deal. Makes no sense at all approving savannah deal will go along way in bring back confidence in the South Sudan oil and gas sector and rejecting it will kill any investment for the foreseeable future
Interesting coverage on south sudan and oil sector with a couple of articles:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/investor-fatigue-hits-south-sudans-oil-production-bogere-charles%3FtrackingId=xaE9JjrrT4q%252FLkHjdItuRg%253D%253D/?trackingId=VnBO%2FF2CTX6YN%2BKCPg7jnA%3D%3D
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/foreign-invstment-network_believeinafrica-partnerships-economicgrowth-activity-7122186320382193664-gmmM?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
The Nigerian government has won a case in a British Court that has overturned an $11bn (£9bn) damages bill awarded to a firm in 2019 following a dispute over a failed gas deal.
The fine amounted to a huge chunk of Nigeria's foreign reserves.
Monday's ruling is part of a protracted legal battle between British Virgin Islands-based firm Process and Industrial Developments Limited (P&ID) and the Nigerian government.
Nigeria's lawyers argued that P&ID had paid bribes to obtain the contract and corrupted lawyers to obtain confidential documents. P&ID denied Nigeria's allegations, blaming the failure of the gas deal on institutional incompetence.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu welcomed the decision by the Business and Property Court in London.
In a statement, he described it as a victory for Africa and the developing world, which he said had long been on the receiving end of “overt exploitation”.
Campaign group Spotlight on Corruption said Nigeria’s economic prospects had been held hostage by what it said was an arbitration award built on bribes and lies.
In his ruling released on Monday, the judge found that P&ID had paid bribes to a Nigerian oil ministry official in connection with a 2010 gas contract, and had failed to disclose this when it took Nigeria to court after the deal fell through.
Nigeria Sees $10 Billion Inflows Easing Liquidity Crunch
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/nigeria-sees-10-billion-inflows-easing-forex-liquidity-crunch
I won't paste article for fear of Mike Bloomberg's lawyers approaching me, but it mentions weeks as the timeframe for this and also the official NGN rate reaching nearly 1,000 a few days back (already discussed on this board).
S, I think posters (the clever ones not me:) don’t know the answer rather than unwilling to help :) some even unsure if it’s wise to invest in this sector? Good luck if you decide to get involved in prd.
Meanwhile SAVERS longingly await at least one big deal announcement by Dec 15. Missing the pages and pages of traffic here.
Apologies for off topic but aware there could be some on here that have a reasonable opinion/knowledge on Predator oil. I have a friend that just went in on it in a reasonably big way based on another friends tip( which I knows not great). From what I can see it’s purely an exploration play. Anyone have any decent knowledge on whether it’s a good punt/option.
From a pure supply/demand perspective, then as long as our Oil (not that we have any really yet) can be sold, $140 would obviously be better for Save than $80. $140 is only going to be hit if some of the existing supply can't get to market and there is still the same demand as now, so as long as ours can then there would be great financial benefits to SAVE.
Obviously, however, there are lots of other important reasons for not wanting this to happen, as a lot of people would suffer financial hardship if it did, not to say that it would only likely come about if there is an escalation in the current conflict which nobody wants. So yes, $80-100 is good for me too.
I would not want to see $140 oil for ANY reason, most of all by an escalation in the Middle East. I would not want to see it even from supply / demand imbalance due to lack of CAPEX spending over the last 8 years. $80 - $100 oil is the sweet spot for me, giving oil companies HUGE profits whilst not affecting regional / global inflation / recessions too much.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Allianz-Trade-Says-Oil-Could-Hit-140.html
RR's post was from Malcy's Blog, not RR's words. If you want to see what Malcy has been saying about SDX use the link below
https://www.malcysblog.com/?s=sdx
RR I have just seen the statement in Malkys Blog I will do more research
RR,
What do you mean by SDX and its re-emergence? I was in years ago and it looks in very poor shape and the bb is dead as a dodo. One poster did sa though that it might either be bought or buy. Sorry for being off topic but I am wondering if there might be an opportunity there
Africa Oil Week
My trip to Africa Oil Week was extremely fruitful and a number of countries as well as companies showed just how well they are doing on the continent. Country wise I would pinpoint Angola, Namibia, South Africa and Nigeria as being in the spotlight, the latter due to San Leon Energy being able to announce the huge funding for the pipeline during the conference. Also speaking to Apache I learned more about Egypt and why Pharos and others remain keen.
The other country that was being mentioned a great deal was Morocco, ahead of next week’s Morocco Summit it was good to see a full complement of Chariot executives speaking at the conference and plenty of chatter about Sound and its progress (see below) as well as SDX and its reemergence and of course the exciting potential at Predator who won’t be at the Summit.
Clearly Afentra are doing very well in Angola and I’m just picking up on Corcel as well who are in country. Finally Eco Atlantic appear to be gearing up for a spectacular campaign, not just in Africa either.
Finally whilst British Airways cannot be blamed for the cancellation and 28 hour delay of the return flight from Cape Town to London but it can be delayed for a disgraceful policy of overbooking which led to an unseemly session of fare paying passengers being booted into touch…
He would probably like to keep that quiet now (only joking)
I think he played a massive part in us obtaining our Niger licences back in the day
TiL - yeas good to see and I did not realise he was a co-founder of SAVE back in 2014. For some reason I though he was more of a recent appointment.
Great to see Yacine Wafy Savannah Director in this list - https://www.choiseul-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Choiseul-100-Africa_2023-1.pdf
I know we hardly produce any oil ATM but this bodes very well for us should we eventually get hold of some decent production. Well worth a read. Also with all the weakness around gas prices ATM, I’m really liking our price gas contract + annual inflation increases.
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-surge-on-spr-refill-plans-middle-east-fears-persist-3198075
RR
The Reuters article refers to the black market rate when dollars are in short supply.
Aboki FX is the black market rate.
Aboki FX Lagos parallel market rates https://abokifx.com/home
Below is the official rate and has been in a steady band since being allowed to free float by the Central bank. I'm not expecting any hit on SAVE in this second half. Since it was devalued in June - it 's been steady ever since in a tight band at the 775 level . That's the official bank level - the other is the unofficial black market rate. I seriously doubt if the Central Bank would devalue it again.
Dollar-Naira charts
1 year - https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NGN
last month to date - https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=NGN&view=1M
Hi scotpak - hope you’re well and still looking in? As you seem to have your finger on the pulse of the NGN fx stuff, what are your views on the Reuters note I put on earlier today and specifically what impact it may have on our refinance work stream and the associated term sheet?
"The videos, which were circulated on Sunday and Monday, purportedly showed the men engaging in intimate acts with other people..." Well, at least it was people, I suppose...
I'm a bit confused on the NGN issue, spot quotes appear some stronger at about 780 to the dollar. I suppose the article is right. If so, expect another fx hit to H2 p&l, albeit smaller than H1. Sigh.
K & TiL - considering the super 7 are divesting $bn’s of assets and we have ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity to grow our hydrocarbon and renewable footprint in Africa, it seeks like a bloody hard job in finding the deals we want and trust. Like you say, with all this networking going on, surely something has to come to fruition at some point - and hopefully soon.
On another note, and i have no idea how this impacts our ‘imminent’ re-finance of Accugas debt:-
ABUJA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Nigeria's naira hit a record low of 1,100 per dollar on the black market on Wednesday, online platform abokiFX showed, a day after the currency hit a new low on the official market due to persistent dollar shortages.
The naira has been in freefall on the unofficial market, where it trades freely, which worsened after currency restrictions were lifted on the official market.
The unit fell to a record low of 980 naira to the dollar on the official market on Tuesday.
The central bank has said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market occasionally to boost liquidity, after last week ending an eight-year ban on some items that were restricted from accessing dollars on the official market.
Last month, the currency slid past 1,000 naira per dollar on the black market and continued to weaken as excess dollar demand is funnelled into the informal market from the official market.
And finally a FYI:-
N'DJAMENA, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Chad's defence minister and the government's general secretary resigned on Wednesday, an administration spokesman said, after two separate sex tapes purporting to show the men were shared widely on social media.
Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo accepted the resignations of defence minister Daoud Yaya Brahim and the government's general secretary Haliki Choua Mahamat, Kebzabo's spokesman said in a statement, without giving further details.
The videos, which were circulated on Sunday and Monday, purportedly showed the men engaging in intimate acts with other people. Reuters could not independently verify the material and was not immediately able to reach either man for comment.
Sex scandals are rare in Chad, a mostly Muslim country with conservative social morals.
Thanks TiL. At some point all of this is going to come to fruition!!
Komakino - Savannah is also at 3rd Morocco Oil & Gas Summit and Exhibition next week. Yacine Wafy presenting - https://www.in-vr.co/morocco-oilandgas
Seems like they are are probably interested in North Africa as well..................
Https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/media-invited-to-attend-libya-energy-economic-summit-noxdbz7g
Energy Capital&Power (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) extends an official invitation to energy and general news media to participate at the second edition of the Libya Energy&Economic Summit – scheduled for November 8-9 in Tripoli’s Rixos Convention Centre. Media will have the opportunity to be at the center of this historic summit.
In partnership with the Office of the Prime Minister and with the support of the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the National Oil Corporation (NOC), this historic summit is poised to bring together leaders and participants from the energy, finance, trading and infrastructure sectors. The 2023 event follows the resounding success of its inaugural edition in 2021, which marked a historic milestone as the first major energy investment event held in Tripoli in a decade. Media representatives are invited to cover this second edition, one that promises to shape the future of Libya's energy landscape.
The two-day program features an official reception on November 8 with keynotes delivered from dignitaries as well as strategic panel discussions and presentations across two stages on November 9. The reception and summit feature keynotes from Libyan leaders including Abdulhamid M. Al Dabiba, Prime Minister of the State of Libya; Farhat Omar Bengdara, Chairman of the NOC; and Mohamed Oun, Minister of Oil and Gas of Libya.
International invited digitaries include Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the Republic of Italy; Robert Abela, Prime Minister of the Republic of Malta; and Alparsian Bayraktar, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey.
The Libya Energy&Economic Summit 2023 is proud to work with sponsors TotalEnergies, BGN, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, Savannah Energy, OMV and more, and with official supporters Renewable Energy Association of Libya, AmCham Libya, Libyan British Business Association, U.S.-Libya Business Association, African Energy Chamber, and Rystad Energy.
Was about to caution your optimism even though I sense its a bit "tongue in cheek", but at least you seem a bit more relaxed than you were a few weeks back after the publication of earnings.
Good luck to all, and I sincerely hope our patience is rewarded.