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12/12/22 - "Full details on the conditions to completion of the Transaction will be set out in the AIM Admission Document."
The adm doc was to come in H1 so we would have been able to see surely what the completion conditions were.
Given that the adm doc is now 15th Dec or before which is 3 weeks or under- are the completion details going to be relevant this far on ? Have they been dealt with by now ?
As reagrds the flagged expected announcement of at least one further hydrocarbon deal this year - Petronas had invited bids for it's Chad, South Sudan, Gabon, The Gambia and Senegal assets valued at up to $3b so given we did not get Chad, is there any possibility that we could be looking at something else from them.
$1250m of that was for S.Sudan and $278m for Chad. That leaves about $1.5b for the rest of the $3b worth of assets that was reported for sale.
Petronas Chad at $278m had approx 11,000 bopd + 48 mmbo 2P + 38 mmbo 2C + the pipeline interest that generated $64m revenue giving $25m FCF.
Good to give the PR guys something to do as they presumably had a fairly cushy ride while the shares are suspended - and the Investor Relations part is virtually cut off. For my part I just want to get the shares trading again. If they tumble on the back on no news so be it, as they'll realign if/when the deal is done/not done - and the company will be more inclined to give operations updates on existing operations which have been scant to say the least.
Nice one RR, it's appreciated,
Looks forward to seeing any replies...
Thanks
I sent in 7 questions earlier in the week to Sally. Whilst we know we will not learn anything material in the replies, it’’s very encouraging that Sally replied late yesterday to acknowledge my email and is hoping to get something back to me next week.
1 - are Savannah still on track for the South Sudan deal and expecting to issue an Admission Document on or by 15/
12/23? What are the work streams that are still being worked on?
2 - as we issued a term-sheet to a consortium of lenders quite some time ago, I'd have expected this to have completed by now. Where are we with the Accugas debt re-finance and is it still expected to close in Q4/23?
3 - as part of the companies FY23 objectives, one was stated to be 'close at least one more hydrocarbon M&A deal in addition to South Sudan’. Is this still expected to happen before the end of this calendar and how many deals are we working on?
4 - how are things going on with well testing in Niger and has the new $4bn pipeline been completed and commissioned?
5 - how are the 4 x ICC cases going and with all the changes going on in Chad (energy minister being sacked due to trying to nationalise Doba), are we talking directly to the Chad Government and trying to reach out of court settlements? I guess with the TOTCO/COTCO revenues being frozen that it's it hitting Government finances quite hard.
6 - will the company be releasing a Q3 operations / finance update and if so when will this be issued?
7 - if all customers took their full take or pay quotas from Accugas, would we be at full capacity or do we still have spare capacity to add new customers prior to the compression project being completed?
Accugas Awards Scholarships to 50 University Students from Akwa Ibom.
https://metrowatchonline.com/accugas-awards-scholarships-to-50-university-students-from-akwa-ibom-metrowatch/?amp=1
Would very much rather the President announced ‘deal with Savannah is to complete in due course’! Anyway is it looking likely we’ll see SS completion, another big deal signed and refinancing by 15 Dec? These three aren’t interdependent and so far no news on any.
Kelboy: you wrote what I was thinking, only more eloquently! The global witness "governance" team look exactly how you'd expect them to look...and one of them is a BBC person (aka the paramilitary wing of The Guardian).
It would be hard to find a more bent article than the Global Witness article. The country has virtually no other form of income but oil and this has been written by some bed-wetters interested in virtue signalling. They choose to have a go at some banks and oil companies without asking whether it is the responsibility of the government how the money is spent. I'm sure it could be spent better but if there is no revenue it will never be any better than a subsistence economy. Apiece that ignores all reality and goes on at such length is a waste of everybody's time.
Another interesting article, talks about oil reform
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/juba-dollar-restrictions-to-stay-as-pressure-mounts-for-reforms-4430294
Interesting article.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/holding-corporates-account/fuel-fire-eu-banks-and-investors-tied-violence-south-sudan/
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1724540011188502661
Good morning.
Thanks folks
As long as both parties feel the deal is still on and can be completed we can continue to be granted extension. Personally feel this deal will go into next year and probably a new extension of 31st March 2024.
Hubs - my understanding is that these types of deals have long-stop dates which do what they say on the tin. However, if ALL concerned parties agree to an extension and there is a realistic chance of the deal completing they can be extended.
But for reference, read the WEN RNS yesterday.
If the deal remains live, we stay suspended.
I'd be happy to be suspended a year from now if this deal still has a decent chance of completion on terms that satisfy our BoD.
That said, Patrick Heinisch's recent posts on x.com don't provide much comfort on the local politics.
https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1723992924235448388
My understanding is that the reason we are suspended is because of the RTO status of the SS deal. If that deal is not complete by mid December and there isnt the possibility of an extension; is that the end of it? Is an extension a possibility if we are close?? Does anyone have experience of these things?
A brief video re SAVE’s scholarship sponsor scheme.
Good PR for accugas.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FhcZci6bcl4
Tweet on X a bit earlier today:-
#Savannah was pleased to participate in the inaugural Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (“NESI”) Market Participants & Stakeholder Roundtable 2023. The conference discussed the accomplishments, challenges, opportunities and prospects of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry, 10 years after its privatisation in 2013. #Savannah’s Head of Commercial, Oge Peters, was on the panel to discuss the topic: “Gas to Power: Challenges and the way forward”. Oge spoke about Savannah’s contribution to the Nigerian domestic gas market and power sector, where we currently supply gas enabling c. 20% of Nigeria’s thermal power generation capacity, as well as supplying gas to power for a number of industrial customers. He advocated a more attractive gas market with the right incentives to encourage domestic producers of gas.
‘but I would still expect a successful SS deal to re-list us at >50p.’
Cloud cuckoo land
Maurel and Prom not getting it easy either on getting deals over the line. Report in todays AI that Gabon govt is preparing to pre-empt on their $730m purchase of the Assala assets. Comes on the heels of not getting their takeover of Wentworths Tanzanian assets interest.
Let's see what happens here with regards to news in the next 5 weeks with a view to readmission.
Well so far, any official stuff we have read says the pipeline and production have not been affected by the war in Sudan. But as we are all aware, as the war continues, there has to be a dark cloud sitting over the pipeline. This is why it’s imperative that when the balance payment is known ($1.25bn - the amount of economic interest credit from maybe as far back as 1/1//22) and I’m expecting it to be somewhere around $400m to $500m, that we split as much as possible of the payment into future production payments. I really want to see the debt we take on kept to a bare minimum. Maybe something like $200m to $250m of debt and the same to be paid from future production.
That would then give us in total for the company about 75kboepd of production, a maximum of $600m debt, I would hope for 2P to be >400mboe and 1.4bn shares fully diluted.
Yes we will get discounted due to everything thats going on and especially the war in Sudan, but I would still expect a successful SS deal to re-list us at >50p. then we have Niger to come on line at some point, 4 x ICC awards hopefully in our favour and organic growth / new customers when the compression upgrade is completed next year.
Thanks CYB. Hopefully it won’t impact SAVE’s negotiations.
But the terms have already been agreed?
SS - I fear that if the deal closes share price will not react too positively as we’d like to, but will react fairly negatively if no deal.
Again hopefully I’ll be proven very wrong.
Maria seems to be on a path to recovery so I wonder if Savannah are waiting to see how much it recovers by before executing on the re-financing debt.
Perhaps if they think it can recover strongly back to the parity post the de-pegging earlier in the year could mean in could recover a significant portion of the fx loses back
https://newtelegraphng.com/naira-appreciates-against-dollar-amid-cbns-forex-initiative/