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Hi, Tier. Not back in yet, just watching - but unlikely to have 70% of my holdings here again. Thoughts on the $500m payment? - I was concerned that some misleading rampers had arrived here, and though good news (on which some were buying), it needed to be seen in perspective of the overall situation with regard to government non-payment. Personally, I cannot invest here until we know the gas payment situation, and are updated monthly on it (like GENL and GKP on KRI payments). Too, management has to improve (Note: I took a large chunk in JSE - light years away in communication and professionalism from SAVP - ask Mount Teide! -, quarterly reports, quick decisive action to unfolding events, honest responses to questions, and, relevant to today's thread, the entire board is taking a 25% reduction in salary despite fantastic results, and the promised dividend maintained - that's how to look after shareholders ). But, if at SAVP we are getting paid IN FULL and ON TIME for our gas, then opportunity here beckons. Let's hope they don't try and fudge this issue in their annual report and AGM! Much honesty needed here. Good Luck.
Gas invoices paid 2020 free cash flow of over $100m usd and we peak production being achieved plus we are not going to be reliant on oil price fluctuation. Market cap less then 80m we are strong going to rerate shortly broker target of 30p. News imminent from the company confirming all this
Hope your well buddy. My mind boggles how you can still back this Compsny and with your posts convince others to invest. Yes I have fallen in to that trap before and maybe you have good intentions and want to help others but f f. S look at losses people are taking. Do t you have any remorse ? Come on fella ..... stop blowing a trumpet when there is no band. 5p next stop here. Sad times. Ps. Plz find something negative to post about SAVE to show your genuine
Figures from CGG show oil in place of between 30 - 97 million bls per square kilometre depending on the prospect and number of targets within. With 140 prospects and even an average prospect size of 5 km2 with 2-3 targets per prospect - the oil in place is likely over 100 billion bls based on the CPR modelling. The early drilling got off to a stunning start and success rate in terms of what was modelled with the company stating that this should be very much repeatable. Also Amdigh was their best well and they were going back to drill Amdigh deep (why?). A marked difference between the deeper and shallower prospect traps in terms of oil fill. " CGG is generally in agreement with Savannah’s mapping of prospects and leads in terms of minimum and maximum closure areas. When CGG’s maximum closure areas are run on a fill-to-spill basis, the resulting unrisked STOIIP’s are much larger than expected from Savannah’s field size distribution for the basin.
This supports the concept that many of the traps in the **upper levels** of the petroleum system in the Agadem Rift Basin may not be filled to spill, and justifies Savannah’s approach to mapping accumulation areas. Savannah’s proprietary geochemical modelling made available to CGG shows that the source systems in the Agadem Rift Basin started generating oil relatively recently: The modelled volumes of oil expelled are very large, at up to: 60 mmbbl/km2 (Donga), 80 mmbbl/km2 (Lower Yogou), 97 mmbbl/km2 (Top Yogou), 50 mmbbl/km2 (Base Sokor), 30 mmbbl/km2 (Sokor in the Dinga Trough).
These volume estimates suggest that the basin has generated far more oil than is required to fill the traps to spill. There are two possible explanations for why the traps are not filled to spill. First, despite the relatively recent timing of oil generation, much of the oil may have leaked to surface. If this was the case, a high proportion of the wells drilled to date would have encountered bitumen whilst drilling through the shallow section. CGG is not aware of any accounts of substantial bitumen deposits in the uphole sections of these wells. Second, much of the oil has been retained in traps in the deeper, largely undrilled, sections – this is the explanation preferred by CGG. CGG therefore considers the interpreted lack of fill to spill at individual traps to be due either due to leakage through the fault seals to traps at higher levels, or because of charge limitations. The charge limitations seem likely to be due either to the position of the trap on local migration pathways or to retention of oil at deeper levels.
The importance of recognising that the traps are probably larger than the mapped accumulations becomes significant when considering yet-to-find in the deeper parts of the basin – where seals are likely to be better and the traps are closer to the mature source systems. Consequently, the deeper traps are more likely to be filled to spill where charge volumes are adequate."
My conservative target was 200p all along and i know now this looks tougher in the current environment but i've always based it on the data from the pretty good CPR, Chinese discoveries of just the shallower upper sokor plays. It still remains. Everybodys interpretation may be slightly different but there's no mistaking the sheer potential in Niger (if they would soon get on with it subject to circumstances allowing). I never came here to expect Savp to be a major producer in Niger and for me and imo, it is one of the greatest plays ever in terms of low risk oil but the delay in waiting has been to call it lightly - more than annoying. My asessment was based on finding a net 400 mmbls at a sale value of $4/b ($6/b company estimate) in the ground or circa $1600m value and adding in an addittional $1b in time from Nigeria via the gas fields and the growing and highly cash generative supply business which is Accugas. An ex rate of £1=$1.30 and the current shares in issue and that's been my long held view how 200p should have come about. I expect oil to get back into the $50s next year but always an underlying danger of a low ball bid. Serious guidance followed up by delivery needed from the forthcoming results. 400 mmbls net is under 15% of the risked recoverable mid case of 2.8 billion bls so much headroom. (Hoping that we have already circa 50 mmbls of that number). On the existing main producing Uquo gas field there's an additional best to high case potential on successful exploration drilling of 578 - 860 mmcf recoverable ie 96 - 143 mmboe gross. The UNRISKED RECOVERABLE best to high for the 4 Niger blocks range from 6.9 - 10.3 billion bls. The RISKED RECOVERABLE best to high is 2.8 - 4.2 billion bls. (page 323) (Remember the figures above are not the oil in place volumes which are most likely over 100 billion bls. The figures above are RECOVERABLE and derived from CGGs oil in place estimates. SAVEs licence area is 13,650 km2"