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Looks like Nigeria is providing tax incentives for investors in the gas sector..
https://businessday.ng/opinion/article/nigerias-gas-sector-and-the-role-of-tax-incentives-in-stimulating-economic-growth/
Who knows we may even get a conclusion pre Feb 1st maybe even next week fingers crossed
Hopefully the fact that the last extension was only for an additional month and half rather than the obligatory 6 months suggests that they are close to finalising this one way or the other. Personally I'm comfortable with an additional extension if it means we get this across the line, but what I do not agree with is the total lack of communication on any aspect of the business. It'll certainly be an interesting next shareholder meeting either way.
Komakino - I'm still surprised that UK listed companies can operate in countries such as Chad and SS given the UK corporate governance rules. I'd just like to see the shares relisted regardless of where we are on SS, so the Board become a bit more accountable and forthcoming. Shame we don't have a stronger Nomad.
Totally agree with everything you have said RR.
I think 10 years is enough time to create shareholder value, and we currently sit suspended still with sod all comms from the company for the best part of a year.
If the deals we are going for mean the company can't communicate in detail with shareholders about the deal, then maybe they shouldn't be involved in these transactions.
Personally I think its time AK is moved on if he can't close out the SS deal in H1.
When you look at his record it really is very poor, apart from the Nigerian Gas operations, which when last informed were performing well.
5 out of 5 successes in Niger were impressive but that was over half a decade ago.
I think his time is up.
Communication appalling, shareholder value creation even worse!
Possibly TiL, but if the sticking point was signature payments then they'd just up those if they needed rather than increase the whole transaction price so the signature payments would increase. AK has always been clear that SAVE behaves in an ethically correct way (probably what cost us Chad) so it would be interesting to know what's going on behind the scenes, as I'm pretty sure SS are out for everything they can get. Doubt we'll ever find out though.
I for one would be disappointed if that happened and don't believe it will.
Komakino - Perhaps, they may be some signature payments tied into the all inclusive headline price..............
Til, that would only happen if the delay is actually a problem with Petronas rather than achieving the consent of the appropriate SS ministries. I think it's much more likely to be the latter in which case the acquisition price is immaterial imo
I wonder if we are willing to go higher than $1.25bn to secure the acquisition. Let's say we are prepared to pay $1.6bn for the assets would that be enough to convince of approval ?
I'd agree with that TiL. I think most people understand the situation with SS but they certainly could keep us better informed on Niger and Accugas. The kpi for the debt revaluation was actually set in 2021 as a kpi for 2022, never mind 2023, so that's a spectacular fail by any reading. I'm sure there's valid reasons for this but they should be more upfront imo and explain the challenges rather than leaving it to us to get frustrated over the lack of closure.
Rockyride - I think post people frustration is not to do with M&A and deals i.e south sudan. But mainly to do with lack of BAU updates, the company could do a better job in keeping the investor base appraised on BAU activities, if they did that than many would be happy to wait for as long as it takes for M&A deal closure.
Ooooohhhhhpppppppssssss here are the KPI’s for 2023 that I alluded to that have been missed:-
Reach 1GW renewables
Progress R3 well test
Complete South Sudan
Add at least one more M&A
Complete Accugas debt refiannce
Articulate corporate strategy
And I’m not one for hearing the bad luck card called - I’m one for addressing the overall risk of any future potential deals taken on. These deals we are trying to close are HUGE for a small company such as ours and the assets are being sold at bargain basement prices for a reason. I absolutely agree that the deals we’ve tried to close so far were the right ones to go for at the time but I want to see far lower risk deals being taken on for the next 12 to 24 months.
Rant over - over and out - Ciao
This is why I am getting more and more frustrated. Here are some of the most important KPI’s for Savannah to deliver on during 2023. Whilst I agree we could not expect them all to be hit, at the moment, this looks like quite a dismal performance and the least I expect is to be given some commentary on whats going on. AK has relentlessly said in the past “what we say we will do - we do” and also has frequently said “we are not an ‘or’ company we are and ‘and’ company”.
If a CEO in a FTSE350 company performed like this without at least updating the market ads to the reasons, they would be hung out to dry by the shareholder (PI’s AND II’s). As I’ve said many times before, we floated back in 2014 with 130m shares at 56p. And now some 9 years on we have 1.3bn shares and a suspended price of 26p. Whilst I clearly understand that Rome was not build in a day, how long must we wait before we see and accretive deals flow in to the SP post the Accugas completion. On that note we have still not seen any accretive action to the SP from the fantastic Accugas deal, surely Financial IR need to be asked some serious question on that subject. We changed Financial IR a few years back to Camarco and are still to see any results from them.
Sorry to air my frustrations on here but in my opinion it’s about time we held the relevant people to account. I’ve been to a few AGM’s now but AK has only been to the one I attended in 2015. I sincerely hope he’s there in person for the 2024 meeting. Hopefully we can then pat him on the back by that time when we are on our way to a $2bn market cap company - but let’s see…
Well done, Rocky.
I'm afraid this much air silence for this long is virtually never a precursor to big, positive news (at least on AIM).
However, since we're about as well-informed as a JustStopOil protestor is on the practicality of NetZero, anything is possible, I suppose. I think we relist before Easter and probably in February.
Nigerian ops are cash-generative and we *should* get some form of Chadian payday in the next couple of years, but goodness there're rather a lot of elephants in the room.
Andrew and Nick have to face the investors when relisting comes about. And evasive answers and filibustering will not do.
He must have Rishi Sunak's team working for him! :)
I wonder if he knows whether the deal is actually going to conclude anytime soon?
The author replied to a query about the omission, so nothing sinister it appears. 'Thank you for bringing this to my attention. The article's focus was on the broader risks and opportunities surrounding Petronas' divestment in South Sudan, and regrettably, the specific transaction with Savannah Energy wasn't included. I appreciate the valuable information, and it emphasizes the dynamic nature of such developments. In future discussions or follow-up articles, I will certainly aim to provide a more comprehensive overview of specific transactions and their implications.'
Niger - https://fluidhandlingmag.com/news/new-niger-benin-pipeline-set-to-deliver-barrels-of-crude/
Interested to see what they plan to do with Niger will they be aggressive we know that the port in Lome is open and Togo through Burkina Faso corridor is open for goods into Niger. Have they explored this option to get equipment into Niger ?
Rockyride - As much as the timelines have stretched if it means that we are still on a successful deal path and we extend to 31st March 2024 than by all means I am happy to buy into further extensions with limited information, but if there aren't any binding assurances and extensions based on hope rather than actual substance of definite binding agreements than there will come a point where a sensible choice will have to be made.
Dam I caught the post button on iPhone in the sun:-
A controversial note from myself today but as a significant PI holder, I felt the time was right to let the key people know my views.
In summary, if the deal is not going to close, let’s move on and if we are to face a further extension post 1st Feb, give us some information with what’s going on with the RTO and the wider company.
If there are chances of a lifetime in African - let’s see at least 1 successful deal being completed.
After 13 months since suspension and absolutely minimal information on the RTO, the ICC cases, Niger well testing, Nigeria compression, Accugas debt restructuring, renewable deals or ANYTHING else as BAU in the company, I’ve written to Sally and James Spinney (NOMAD at Strand Hanson) to share my growing frustration. I urge any others on here to do the same should they deem it to be appropriate.
Rightly or wrongly, I think II’s will be briefed more often than ourselves. If not, what are the large team of IR x 4 I think and x 3 at Camarco actually doing.
Whilst I FULLY accept there are numerous very sensitive issues that can not be mentioned, I absolutely believe that we could have been given more information about the company in which we all own a share.
I have urged the NOMAD / AIM to force Savannah back to trading either with AD (with some workstreams still WI) or to walk away from the deal. We can not go on like this with endless additional extensions without being given some information.
A contov
Longshort - My thoughts exactly takeover the assets for now and cede control over a number of years once the south sudan government and Nilepet have built up capacity...................
It would seem illogical to sit at the table for over 14 months and not get any deal in south sudan, even if it's 50% of Petronas current assests in south sudan........
But we will never know until we hear something from Savannah
Surely we would not allow a scenario like Chad to happen again we must have some assurances that SS Gov will approve the deal. Maybe we will do a JV with the gov for the share where we somehow ceding a percentage each year over a fixed period (just a thought )