Savannah Energy Share Chat (SAVE)

Over exposed, and in profit, need flexibility. 1143 sale of 18800,which shows as a buy gives me that

Try putting a limit order in that will give you more shares after costs.
But it might not happen.
The perils of trying to time the market!
Costs and spread are a curse.
Spare a thought for poor JNRW on the other place.
He proudly sold out at 13.5p and declared he would buy back at 10.5p.

Why on earth would you sell and then attempt to buy back ?

Sold some at 16.26,but unable to buy back. Interesting

start of the next leg up after small retrace?

Well no RNS but certainly looks positive so far this morning :-)

Hopefully the 1 code at the end of the day suggests they'll be back in the morning :-)

It will be interesting to see if any buyers come in at 15p after this pullback ?

IZ - ta. I didn’t write my post well. I know directors would tell us but maybe only when they’d finished buying their respective tranches. AK seemed to buy his over a few days but we only got told at the end.

It’s more individuals / companies who maybe not so forthcoming with TR1’s. Eg. I’ll never need to issue a TR1 but at present am about 30% towards the 1st threshold requirement. Who’d know if I passed it and did not issue a TR1. Additionally mine are spread across SIPP, Self-Select share-dealing accounts etc. I struggle to manage my holding and I’m sure nobody would be tracking them against my NI No. or anything similar.

Anyway, let’s all hope for news soon and another good week / bit more of an upward trend to the SP.

Agadem, Aim rules state 'An AIM company must issue notification without delay of:
? any deals by directors disclosing, insofar as it has such information, the information specified by Schedule Five;
? any relevant changes to any significant shareholders, disclosing, insofar as it has such information, the information specified by Schedule Five; '

The wording 'insofar as it has such information' implies that the company is reliant on the information being provided to it, so you would expect any director buys/sells to be notified promptly, whereas other they are reliant on other shareholders providing the relevant info. This suggests to me that there hasn't been any director buying recently, which, personally doesn't bother me, everyone has their own reasons in life. Agree we should get some TR1's though soon as some there has been a lot of buying recently.

Schedule Five
Pursuant to rule 17, an AIM company must make notification of the following:
(a) the identity of the director or significant shareholder concerned;
(b) the date on which the disclosure was made to it;
(c) the date on which the deal or relevant change to the holding was effected;
(d) the price, amount and class of the AIM securities concerned;
(e) the nature of the transaction;
(f) the nature and extent of the director’s or significant shareholder’s interest in the transaction;
(g) where a deal takes place when it is in any close period under rule 21, the date upon which any previous binding commitment was notified or the date upon which the Exchange granted permission to deal in order to mitigate severe personal hardship; and
(h) where the notification concerns a related financial product, the detailed nature of the exposure

I know it’s early days still but this is a billion pound company in the making eventually. Increased revenues quicker debt reduction. Nigeria gas revenues of $200m per annum, Accugas has infrastructure asset worth about 1 billion. Early Niger production of 1500 Bopd from 2021. To be increased in subsequent years. Further acquisitions of potentially distressed assets. Increase appraisal, development and drilling on our current Nigeria and Niger assets, potential dividends, institutional support, all in time for the commodity boom cycle.

HD - I agree and if you’ve seen my posts on here going back sometime, you’ll know this frustrates me too. Only AK as. BOD member owns more than I do and some hold extremely few shares. If this is such a good thing why aren’t the others piling in?

Having said that, there has (is / are) clearly been somebody loading up quite heavily in recent times. Whilst I don’t believe the TR1 process is adhered to very well in the whole of AIM, we could well see 1 or 2 new TR1’s soon and if we do, they may include BOD folk.

This comment defo rings a bell.....
“Yes I believe they will be reached, but to be honest, in time, I expect them to be many multiples of the hurdle prices”.
I find it stranger by the day that there wasn’t more Director buying at the lows. We obviously know AK bought a chunk more but why didn’t the others have more faith?!

And here is the excerpt from the last annual report:-

“ For initial participants, the awards vest on a straight-line basis should the VWAP at any point during the five-year period exceed a hurdle price of 47 pence, with 100% vesting on the VWAP reaching 68 pence. Participants who receive shares pursuant to the awards are subject to a three-month lock-in period during which they will not be permitted to deal in such shares, subject to certain limited exceptions.”

I’ve just had a quick review of some of my recent Q&A’s with Celicourt / SAVE IR which led me back to the latest annual report. Glad I did not have to type that beast of a document. Whilst I found it very refreshing to read all the great stuff in black and white, it bought my thinking back to 2 of the target prices I’ve had in my mind for a very long time. Now I completely acknowledge that internal share incentive hurdle prices are not always met, they do give a good indication of where the board hope to be at some point. I also acknowledge that broker forecast SP’s are not always hit, they too give us good indications as to what we may see from the SP with strong company performance.

With regards to the staff hurdle prices, they are 47p and 68p, while a recent broker note mentioned 52p. These are by no means my own target prices but they are certainly prices I firmly believe that we will see in due course. I know I’ve mentioned this before albeit a long time ago, but when I asked AK on a live all hands Q&A call about the hurdle prices, I think his response was something like:-

“Yes I believe they will be reached, but to be honest, in time, I expect them to be many multiples of the hurdle prices”.

At long last we are now starting to see a bit of upward movement in the SP and long may it continue. As an aside, great to see some of the great research and posts on here, especially to the importance of gas and the potential growth requirements in Nigeria on multiple fronts.

With regards Niger, I’m really excited about first oil and the new drilling campaign. Who can believe we hit 5 out of 5 excellent wells in 2015 and the SP did not budge. A couple of years earlier LGO 6 bagged on finding diddly squat in Trinidad! Also on the oil front, great to see Brent at $56 and looking quite strong. All looking good for a good 2021.

Finally, I’m hoping AK has learnt a lesson to set timescales out in the future a little to allow him to beat them and over deliver. Ie first oil from Amdigh (and is it Eridal) is due by end of 2021. How nice would it be to bring on 1,500 boepd a bit earlier, maybe late spring / summer?

I really do think that might happen and markets ALWAYS like FIRST OIL.

If SAVE secure new contracts at anything remotely close to the $7.50 Mcf(a top of the range long term LNG contract supply rate to Europe), they achieved with the Lafarge renegotiation, they would generate cash flow from them similar to a high speed currency printing press churning out high denomination notes!

At $7.50MMBtu their operating margin would probably put Apple's 69% and Centra Asian Metals 73% completely in the shade!

Thursday's world record LNG spot price of $24 MMBtu was blown out the water less than 24hrs later!
Javier Blas of Bloomberg said today(Friday) that at least one LNG spot cargo was sold for $33-$36/MMBtu to an unnamed SE Asian buyer!

That is a Brent equivalent energy price of $192-$209/bbl !

More than 94% of Savannah's Nigerian Nat Gas revenues are underpinned by World Bank guarantees and have an average contract life of 15 years.

Finncap Report - October 2020:

'Yesterday’s interim results and trading update clearly demonstrate the promised transformation following the Seven Energy transaction.

Savannah is now a highly cash generative business with US$133m (+28% y/y) of cash collections in the 12 months to end-August from its Nigerian gas business, on track for its reiterated FY20 revenue guidance of US$200m+.

This is not a passing fad either. Over 94% of this revenue is derived from US$-based gas sales agreements that are underpinned by World Bank guarantees and have an average contract life of 15 years.

Moreover, gas sales to new customers are expected to start before year-end and additional contracts hopefully signed, so there’s growth to come too at minimal cost – there’s plenty of spare capacity in the gas infrastructure.'

The fact that the fickle market is not pricing in Niger is perverse. However there can be no doubt whatsoever that this position will change and when it does the effect on our market cap will be very significant. This position is nothing other than a rare opportunity. If you add in all of the other value adding developmens in Nigeria this becomes one of the most compelling investment opportunities out there imo

We have seen decent momentum since December as it is likely to continue with cash flows in excess of $200m per year and still potential for more based on new contracts in Nigeria. The market is still not pricing in Niger where we are to start producing in EPS 1500 Bopd this year. Our cash flows will be materially enhanced and the potential is incredible wouldn’t surprise me if we carry on climbing. And this is does not include any other news which we may get from the company. Still the Sp is materially trading at discount when you think of all that is due this year. https://www.energymixreport.com/savannah-works-to-deliver-crude-oil-to-zinder-refinery-in-niger-republic/

Hi Agadem,

“Outside of all the direct news in relation so the oil and gas stuff, I also note and really like some of the softer / indirect stuff that AK has been doing and mentioning more and more on his comms.”

Yes imo this is absolutely essential. We would regularly do ‘bring your children to work days’, community sport sponsorship, work experience, interview help etc you cant do it all but my thing was to really try and help kids get a start so we focused on that.

I was really encourage when the TXP team, 11 employees and the CEO took time out to restore a special needs building in Rio Claro, Trinidad & Tobago. They literally refitted it! And of course they then earned the right to include that in a corporate presentation. It was appropriately down played but it lifts the person from the spreadsheet.

Such things humanise what SAVE are about, it builds a brand. The judo sponsorship, given AK’s love of the sport was a great move, not quite a ‘tominagi’ as they can do more. But it’s certainly a potential interview question should we appoint a new NED.

I would expect AK, as he has to theme this, it should then be lined up and just signed off by him so he can then turn up and ‘kiss a few babies’.

I mentioned before when we replace the NED position I would like to see a candidate with ESG strategic experience because let’s face it the decarbonisation properties from where the country currently is and what SAVE has t9 offer is a ‘gift horse’ to sell at the moment!

Furthermore, there is no reason that they couldn’t later add solar to their pf. It’s exactly the same management skills. Sure it’s out of the box but those are the characteristics I would be looking for a NED to bring. Someone to drive the ESG, diversification and softer side. That imo will reap benefits.

Let’s face it we have corporate experience, business acumen and forensic detail coming out of our ears! A bit like this BB! Lol,

Trek - it’s the weekend!

Nationwide discos! Cool

Hi Z & HNY21 to you and as ever, great posting again - you’re a MASSIVE asset to this board.

Outside of all the direct news in relation so the oil and gas stuff, I also note and really like some of the softer / indirect stuff that AK has been doing and mentioning more and more on his comms.

Ie all the building relationships with key decision makers etc in a very tough country to operate in (Nigeria). He seems to getting on well with the he Government and a whole load of other key people / organisations. Sponsoring the judo girl etc etc etc.

It seems to me he is setting the strategy here and then delegating to his key personnel to deliver (which is exactly what a CEO should do), while he’s pro-actively out there networking and pushing all the right buttons.

As much as Nigeria need us to help with their Gas requirements, I love the fact that he’s building very strong relationships as oppose to just being seen as a supplier.

A good first week to 2021 and hope there’s many more to come. Each day we seem to test a slightly higher level, retrace again and then surpass the slightly higher level again. Then the same the next day and the next day.

Looks to me like the MM’s / BOTS are happy for this to go up but not too quickly. However, I think we will see good news soon with larger daily increases - circa 2p to 3p.

Hi HD - well done on how you call this mate.

Has to be very, very positive for us and why Save chose to tweet this. On the road to 25GW. If we only maintain our 10% supply of the gas generation market, it should give us a target 3-4 fold increase for revenue.

Save tweet 50 mins ago that power transmission hits an all time peak of 5552.8 MW highlighting a gradual but consistent growth.

https://platformsafrica.com/2021/01/07/nigerias-power-transmission-hits-all-time-peak-of-5552-80mw/

'The new peak, she said, was an indication of the gradual but consistent growth in the capability of the power sector under the present administration.

She said that with the capacity to transmit 8,100MW, TCN successfully transmitted the enhanced peak through the nation’s grid at a frequency of 50.08Hz.

Also, the Acting Managing Director of TCN, Mr Sule Abdulaziz, encouraged all sector players to work together to ensure sustained improvement in the power sector.

“TCN will continue to build more substations as well as install additional transformers in various substations nationwide.

“It is also restringing old transmission lines to further increase their capacity to transmit more bulk electricity for Discos nationwide, ” Abdulaziz said.