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Rocky, if they could add ‘significant progress has been made and…’ to that I for one would be delighted
Hey - we could get one like this:-
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 14 December 2023, the Company continues to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan. In this regard, a further extension to the Company's cancellation date has been granted to 1 May 2024. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.
63.12% according to my records
What was it before?
Good or bad news in 10 hours. Good luck all. I’m all for some delightful reading from you all tomorrow :)
So what are we expecting in the morning.
My understanding (and I appreciate the language is a bit ambiguous) is that the suspension ends tomorrow if there is no change. I can’t see us suddenly trading at 8am….
Don’t know if any significance can be attached to this ahead of the Adm doc but the Shareholdings page on the Save website updated today.
64.36% for institutions and directors
Sepl shareprice very strengthening on the back of comments by Nigerian Oil Minister the Exxon-Seplat deal 99% finalised.
Although I do agree that there definitely needs to be an update on accugas debt re-structure.
Thanks, Trust.
Goodness knows where we are with the NGN stuff.
Where is Mr Beattie? Lagos? Abuja? Bank Street?
I don't think it's replacing Gabon with Chad nor do i think why would SAVE even entertain this Gabon/Assala transaction.
I remember it was specifically asked what level of boepd production did they want to go to and how much net debt they would take on and be comfortable with.
Reply was, It wasn't coming down to achieving a target boepd figure for boepd sake. Boepd deals etc were only going to be acquired on a risk/reward value accretive basis and they didn't think in terms of net debt and how much - but risk - and how the overall debt per asset was ringfenced and financed.
So on that basis i don't think it's down to just securing 2-3 deals but the right opportunistic deals and how they are bought and paid for and risk. It's as easy to run a 50k bopd opperation as it can be 5 or 10k.
If they feel capable of running the asset on the above basis then i think it's fairly well considered - they have run over about 40 odd deals i think 27 in 2022 and 21 in 2021 from memory.
They have the authority to seek financing of up to $2.5 billion built in for a good number of years without seeking shareholder approval for greater than that.
On that basis and how they have described it, i would not be surprised that they will consider to seek out major deals.
To me, Chad is running in the background on a compensation basis for X amount of loss/damage times x years. I don't see that being shrugged off as a bad deal without recompense but to be taken in our stride and surely the lawyers to the deal have provided water tight advice and some level of guarantee ?.
Just my opinion on S.Sudan, but on a $1250m total figure for circa 50k bopd and the AI rumoured 300 mmbls - that figure should be well under half if the effective transaction date is 1/1/22 (though as ever we won't know the full details until an adm doc).
With that S Sudan present cost factor in mind, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see them continuing to hunt for other deals in this environment as other companies continue to do.
Following on from S.Sudan they said they hoped to close at least 1 further hydrocarbon acquistion by last year end - ie "at least one" - so 2-3+ would come as no surprise to me over time.
Caution there seems to be differ naira rate from different providers google rate is much lower 1 usd = 896.50 naira
Https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1752617731143192648
*Sigh*
There goes another USD50m.
Https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/petroleum-minister-backs-inclusive,-fair-global-energy-transition-from-fossil-fuels/548
SP. Sort of with you on this. I look at energy projects for a living from a commercial perspective with a view to raising finance for them - used to be mainly O&G, but now more renewables. I learnt a while ago to pick my battles. Spent ages of 'free time' looking at projects which had a low chance of securing funding and moving forward - for all sorts of reasons, - Geol risk, Tech level, location, management. Still do the odd high risk/reward but they're rare. I didn't buy into SAVE originally with my punt money, so maybe looking for something others aren't. I hope in a few days I'll be eating my words, but besides Nigeria some of these locations they're putting a lot their eggs into (even if they get sanction) are too scary for me and I'll be taking some money off the table.
Rockyride - That's how I read the article as well, plus they did mention one other acquisition by end of 2023 and this was in the half year report so they clearly had runway to do another acquisition alongside SS whatever the outcome.
Although AI can never be 100% accurate, they tend to call more things right than wrong. I read it as we are looking at the Gabon deals to replace the CC lost production of circa 20k. They did not hint that we were looking at Gabon for any reason to SS failing, in fact quite the contrary. I see AI as seeing us as having up to 30k of solid very profitable business in Nigeria, bidding for 20k-45k in Gabon and hopefully closing circa 50k in SS. On top of that we have a reasonable % chance of a significant award fro ICC cases. Roll this lot forward 5 years + ARB production in Niger and all the renewable projects and you can see a huge company. However, my investment period is not 5 years from now, my investment period was 9 years from 2015. I have always said since day one (2015) that I want to completely restructure my finances in December 2024 and the clock is ticking for me. Hopefully I will retain a large SAVE holding post December but will only do this if it delivers a sizeable yield.
On Assala Gabon assets the articles implied that the bid deadline set was 20th Jan 2024, so I wonder if things are much more progressed on the Assala assets that yesterday article suggests, Yesterday's article may have been delayed reporting by Africa Intelligence
Fair Point Scotpak the article I posted yesterday seems to suggest that us pursuing Assala assets in Gabon is more a substitute for Chad rather than south sudan so let's see. Africa Intelligence still seems to suggest that SS is still on or at least the article yesterday seems to imply that. Now we can all sit here and guess how much we trust AI news sources, however they were very early in highlighting our interest in Petronas South Sudan assets so here is me hoping there comment is based on more credible actual intelligence from people close to the deal as supposed to a throw away comment based on conjecture on whats publicly available so far.
Given the nationalisation of Chad and the huge uncertainty over the closing of the South Sudan acquisition, why would Savannah even entertain this transaction. This isn't Andrew's personal gambling vehicle, this is a listed company with a group of shareholders. Aside from my annoyance, the question also has to be asked why they would even consider being involved. Is it because SS is also close to falling through? If we had done zero M&A, and just focused on generating free CF from nigerian business and paying down debt, perhaps we could have been in a much better position. Sorry guys, just typing out my thoughts. Obviously frustrated like many here given 2 years + of suspension.
Vitol seems to be the only trader / financier considering but they want a credible operator to manage the assets, I am guessing that's where Savannah comes in.............. I wonder if we go 50/50 split as yesterday article suggest that we are going for these assets due to Chad nationalisation. If we did get Chad Exxon and Petronas assets as originally intended that would have been circa 20,000 bopd. If we get 50/50 on the Assala assets than that would replace the 20,000 bopd that was intended from chad initially.
Plus going in with a joint bid with the government means approvals will not be an issue as long as Carlyle accept the bid and the Gabonese government want us a partner.
An extension on yesterday article referring to Gabon assala assets..........
"Vitol seems to be the trader most in tune with the government's aspirations. But it does not want to commit to a deal worth nearly a billion dollars without a serious operator capable of helping GOC in the management of complex oil assets."
Gabonese officials are working on a financial package that would enable them to pre-empt Carlyle's assets and to counter an offer from Maurel & Prom.
A team from the Gabon Oil Co (GOC) were in Paris on 17 and 18 January to address the crucial issue of the state's pre-emption of Carlyle's Gabonese assets (45,000 bpd). The delegation met with Carlyle managers and in particular Guido Funes Nova, the Italian who is in charge of the asset sale project. Carlyle wants more details on the financial package envisaged by GOC, and has given it until 20 January to submit its final offer.
After several months of negotiations between oil companies and Libreville, Vitol seems to be the trader most in tune with the government's aspirations (AI, 11/12/23). But it does not want to commit to a deal worth nearly a billion dollars without a serious operator capable of helping GOC in the management of complex oil assets.
Among the firms contacted by GOC is TotalEnergies, from whose ranks its managing director Marcellin Simba Ngabi comes. But the French major does not seem genuinely interested in investing in Gabon, and has in recent years been selling off its assets there (AI, 25/11/21).
Time is of the essence. By the end of 2021, Carlyle had launched the process of selling its Gabonese assets, which it had acquired from Shell in 2017 and then entrusted to Assala Energy. The US group announced last August that it had reached a sale agreement with Maurel & Prom of the Pertamina group.
Game-changer
Gabon's coup d'état on 30 August was a complete game-changer. The new regime quickly announced its intention to pre-empt these same assets (AI, 19/10/23). This was confirmed by junta leader Oligui Nguema in his address to the nation on 31 December. The new Gabonese administration has since then been scrambling to find the funds to counter Maurel & Prom's bid.
Maurel & Prom has since made it clear to its Gabonese counterparts that it is prepared to compromise. If the government agrees to its offer to buy Carlyle's assets, it will gladly sell part of its new holdings to GOC. However, during a trip to Libreville late last year, Maurel & Prom CEO Olivier de Langavant was not received by either the junta leader or any of his ministers.
Given the high value of the transaction, Maurel & Prom is confident. Its directors believe that it will be difficult for the government's teams to put together a convincing financial package and find a technical partner familiar with Gabon
Gabon
Savannah Energy joins the race for a share of Carlyle's oil assets
Savannah Energy, the oil company owned by British national Andrew Knott, wrote recently to the oil ministry with an offer to help it pre-empt the oil assets currently held by Carlyle group subsidiary Assala Energy (AI, 26/01/24). Savannah thus joins half a dozen other oil companies trying to cash in on the planned sale of the assets, which currently produce 45,000 barrels of oil per day. Previously owned by Shell, they have been operated by Assala since 2017.
A few days before the 30 August coup carried out by General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesia's Pertamina oil group, announced that it had reached an agreement with Carlyle to acquire the latter's activities in Gabon. Since then, however, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) has officially exercised its pre-emption rights to prevent the sale from taking place. GOC is now looking for an operator and financial partner for the blocks.
Savannah is all the more interested in the Gabonese blocks for the fact that it faces having nationalised the Chadian assets it bought from ExxonMobil in 2022. Situated in the Doba Basin, these are currently producing 30,000 barrels per day. Savannah is, however, represented in Nigeria, Africa's biggest leading economy, thanks to the gas assets it acquired in the Niger delta from Seven Energy in 2019. In the next few weeks, moreover, it is also expected to complete the purchase of the interests of Malaysia's Petronas group in South Sudan in an operation it announced in 2022.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/01/30/savannah-energy-joins-the-race-for-a-share-of-carlyle-s-oil-assets,110153645-bre
To add further to that Zengas even Shell recent onshore sale to local independents will drag
https://blueprint.ng/coalition-rejects-shells-divestment-threatens-nationwide-protest-2/
Not all plain sailing for any of them. It's not unique to AK/Save but certainly frustrating being a shareholder.
Sepl has sufferred over the years from lost and shut in production over oil theft and major pipeline shut-ins causing force-majuere. In addition their gas build up has been slower than expected. Every trick in the book re court cases and attempts to kick the CEO out of the country - pretty hair raising on a one country focus.
Seplats deal with Exxon is still not cleared yet in Nigeria. In Oct 2023 they were still confident of it being approved.
First announced back on 25th Feb 2022 so almost 2 years and with an effective transaction date of 1/1/21 so now over 3 years in the making although some of the agreed terms have changed a little due to the deal taking so long and Exxons ongoing involvement.
M&P ran into problems with it's takeover of Wentworth first time around and now the Assala dea in Jeapordy.
Exxons sale on Zafiro turned sour and the FPSO sent for scrap.
Zenith relatively small assets in Tunisia (compared to Saves Chad) and suing for just over $85m.
Even Kosmos and it's partner Tullow had to go to arbitration claims to resolve their dispute.
You only have to look outside Africa and Cairns history in suing India for hundreds of millions.
As for where we are on the value ladder, I always use to to compare Seplat share price with our share price as there use to be a broad correlation between the 2 companies prior to suspension.... The Seplat share price has hit an all time high this wee and 75% up since the price at our time of suspension.
I know it's not comparing apples to apples, and probably more like apples to pears, but considering the positive correlation I would imagine there might be some read across from that perhaps not as much as 75% but a small read across of 15% - 25%, also with the fact that with every passing month we reduce overall debt and build cash...........