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Great to see SAVE on a little run from 8/9p to around 17p and then a re-trace to 13/14p. Long-term investors will be please to see the SP move out of single digits, where it's been for far too long, into the teens. As we all know nothing ever goes up in a straight line blah blah blah.
Volumes have been very good to be honest and therefore in addition to long-termers being happy, so will MM's and traders. Let's hope the volumes remain high along with a bit of volatility as I think everybody involved, irrespective of how they make money would seem to concur that the overall trend will be up over time.
Being brutally honest, I really do admire the traders but it's not for me. I don't understand charts / technicals very well at all and do not have the ambition or enthusiasm to learn how to do it better. I have tried it a bit, did not read the "tea-leaves" well and never always seemed to get my timing wrong.
You know I'm looking for many multiples of 14p and firmly believe we see this withing the next 4 years (my latest exit point for this investment from my current 5 year financial plan) so don't think I'm only looking to double my money here from the example I give below. But as an example of looking to double your money, I look at the difference between trading and investing like this:-
If you start with £100k and want to double it, obviously you just need a 1 bagger to double if you invest in the strong fundamentals of a company and wait for it to happen. In terms for SAVE that mean waiting for the SP to go from 14p to 28p. Sell at 28p and you've doubled your money. A very very basis and stating the obvious.
If you were to trade this stock (or any other for that matter), your have to trade it and make 10% - 10 times. Yes all very much doable but will we really see 10 rises with 10 retraces be for 28p - somehow I think now. Additionally, with trading, the more and more you'd be out of the stock, the more danger of being out when the good news comes.
So if this is to gets to my target SP for 2021 of 89p, how many times would I successfully have to trade it, making 10% each time to make the same profit of simply buying and holding.
Am definitely only an investor and not a trader. But even doing it that way I don't always hold for as long as I plan to. As a recent example, I used to meet up with Matt Lofgran when he come over to the UK for investor presentatios etc. I've not been in contact with him for 2/3 years now but always still followed NTOG quite closely. I made an investment there a short while ago (even though Biden hates oil) and bought in at 0.35p. I bought in with a view to doubling my money before the end of 2021 and sold all of them last week at 0.7p. A 1 bagger in not time at all.
So good luck in whatever your strategy and let's hope we all make money.
PS, I think you'll find that Thommie at the other place is a trader - BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU READ
“We see significant benefits from integrating our production, with our ability to power Nigeria, through Transcorp, and deliver value across the energy value chain,” the graduate of Ambrose Ali University, Ekpoma, Edo State, said.
Transcorp Plc who recently acquired Afam power and Afam fast power have made another acquisition
Time for AK to get the Niger show on the road! Where else can you find a good old fashioned conventional basin with the potential of 2.8B bbls of prospective resource that can be produced with technology used in the 70’s/80’s! Finding costs of $2/bbl, NPV of $6/bbl and 80% COS, B/E $26/bbl.
Part 3 & final. Read this last:-
I’m sure that investors are aware of all this but it is worth pointing out the recent price history as well as the potential for further strengthening of forward gas prices for this year and next as inventories fall faster than originally anticipated. As gas producing companies make trading updates in coming weeks it will be worthwhile finding out quite what benefit recent prices have meant to them and if they are taking any action to lock in prices this year and next.
Part 2 - read the post below first:-
In a ‘you couldn’t make it up moment’, Government guidelines to keep windows open to reduce Covid risks in markets such as Japan are further strengthening heating demand literally blowing hot air into the atmosphere.
We in Europe have seen cold and settled weather compared to seasonal norms (and exceptionally cold winter conditions in some specific areas around Europe, e.g. Madrid where measurable amounts of snow has settled most unusually).
All this has led to withdrawals from UK inventories were near a 3-year high in the first week of January. Renewables and ‘trendy energy’ havent delivered quite as had been hoped for in some cases, indeed less windy weather has reduced wind power generation, accentuating high gas demand.
Global LNG production growth slowed sharply in 2020, increasing by less than 6m tonnes to 361.4m tonnes, after years of sharp increases and some large LNG projects have recently experienced unplanned outages, further reducing supply (e.g. Hammerfest in Norway, Prelude and Gorgon in Australia, Arzew in Algeria).
Short supply of LNG vessel capacity and congestion on the Panama Canal has reduced the availability of spot LNG cargoes, with the longer journey for US cargoes going to Asia soaking up capacity. Thus spot vessel rates have rapidly escalated, with BP recently paying $350,000 a day to charter an LNG tanker – the highest day rate in history for any commodity tanker (I understand LNG tanker spot rates are typically around $50,000/day).
Where should we expect prices to go in the short term? Weather forecasts are warning of more cold weather to come over the coming weeks – with even the outside chance of a repeat of the Beast from the East and we know what effect that has on spot prices.
but this is really good background info in relation to what we are currently doing / maybe doing in Nigeria. You never know we could also drill for oil and find gas in Niger, similar to what TXP have done in Trinidad...
I’ve pinched all the text fro Malcy’s blog:-
A number of readers have asked, and commented on why I have started putting the UK natural gas price at the top of the blog this week. I have been meaning to add it for some time but the recent rally forced my hand. The irony is that having had a huge run the first day in the blog signalled the top, at least for the very short term…
Either way, UK NBP day-ahead prices which were as low as 8.6p on 28th May 2020 peaked at nearly 80p earlier this week, the highest since 2018, making an obvious and significant change for those focusing on gas production. Looking further down the curve, winter 2021 prices reached 53.7p, the highest close since Oct 2019 – reflecting a tightening gas market for next winter.
The continued cold, settled weather drove total UK gas offtake on Thursday last week to over 400mcm for the first time since 2018. By comparison, demand of 417mcm on 1 March 2018 during the “Beast from the East” prompted the first ever Gas Deficit Warning to be declared, driving NBP briefly to all-time highs.
Spot LNG prices in Asia hit a record (at the time) $21.45/mmbtu by last Friday 8 January amid a severe cold snap in Asia this was the highest level on record, equivalent to around 160p/therm based on current FX rates. Again this was up >9x from the exceptionally low level of $2.25/mmbtu as recently as April 2020.
Prompt gas prices in Spain also went over €60/MWh – an equivalent level – as the country was battered by Storm Filomena whilst on 12 January, the market went to even greater extremes, spiking up to over $30/mmbtu, and one LNG cargo for immediate delivery was even sold by Total to Trafigura for $39.30/mmbtu – reflecting an almost total lack of short term supply.
This unprecedented tightness in the LNG market is directly impacting the UK: I’m told total LNG cargoes delivered into the UK for January are likely to number only 3-4, versus 24 last January, an astonishing turnaround. Consequently the UK gas grid is currently highly dependent on pipeline flows and storage withdrawals and as at mid last week, 38% of gas supply came via pipeline from Norway, 16% from continental interconnectors and 13% from storage. UKCS production supplied only 22% and LNG only 11%.
So whilst a gas price recovery was predicted by a number of key players what has been driving such a strong and rapid resurgence? Firstly, fundamentals have inverted completely since the spring/summer of 2020 when they were very weak, for example extremely cold temperatures in Asia have been driving record power demand levels, in turn driving very strong gas demand and even has seen reported cases of coal fired power stations being recommissioned.
Far more advertised buys than sells today and almost every day this week and down she goes. It is within the MMS gift to do this if it suits them. Personally I am intending g to top up on Monday but am expecting the sp to magically go back to 15p as soon as by buy order is placed at 8 00am on Monday mor ing
Lab - I’m never that lucky. I sell the SP goes up and vice versa. I just hold and hope :)
Thanks Agadem, for the in depth precis. I started in at 29p and was still buying at 8p, happily now averaged at 14.51.
Been fortunate Mr. B, sold more since last Post then bought back, brought average down a bit. Hoping things will look up again sooner that later,at least things look positive. Perhaps market makers gathering some shares for sale.
well both myself and my son just bought in on the dip today so for us it was a good day . Had it on my watch list and decided to take plunge today
Over 10% down on no news is what I would call manipulation:)
Bit of a bumpy ride today :(
That’s useful. I realised some cash from a few trades this week so been looking for something with a catalyst. I did not know the company previously and usually would give anything with a either a hugely levered balance sheet or Nigerian involvement a wide berth (no offence to any Nigerians). Have gone over the financials this week and recent RNS alongside several broker notes. Shore have it as a top pick in energy space for 21 and Finncap also pushing as a long. I’m swayed by the cash flows supported through guarantees. A lot of people won’t touch this until the debt pile is reduced which is good as means I could get in cheaper. The certainty of those cash flows is surprisingly high with limited execution risk.
Overall, I won’t be huge but like the story so just started layering in today. Next catalyst for me is the new client agreement.
I thought I'd just post a few of the highlights (for me) from out last update on 22nd December 2020 for some of the potential new people looking in here and considering buying in to SAVE:-
Revised Capital Expenditure guidance of approximately US$8.0m - US$10.0m (from up to US$45.0m) primarily due to rescheduling of the capital expenditure programme and the deferral of drilling a new gas production well on the Uquo field, with the Accugas compression project now accelerated and expected to commence in early 2021.
Of the total average gross daily production of 19.2 Kboepd in the year-to-date period, 87.6% was gas, including a 16% increase in production from the Uquo gas field compared to the same period last year, from 87.3 MMscfpd (14.6 Kboepd) to 100.9 MMscfpd (16.8 Kboepd).
Total cash collections from the Nigerian Assets year-to-date period ended 30 November 2020 were US$164.3m as compared to cash collections of US$124.2m in the same period last year, an increase of 32%. Cash generated by the Nigerian Assets has been directed to funding operating and maintenance costs and debt service. - SAVE are very confident that the FY guidance figure of $200m for 2020 will be delivered. As this update was given on 22/12/2020 up to the end of November, the remaining cash was already banked!
As at 30 November 2020, the Group cash balance was US$95.6m and net debt was US$419.7m. Net debt was significantly reduced during the first 12 months since completion of the RTO. It is also worth mentioning that as debt reduction is due to continue, every $20m of reduction is worth 1.5p to the SP.
In addition. a new gas sales agreement is being finalised with a significant new industrial gas sales customer, a subsidiary of a well-respected international company, based on the signed term sheet which was announced in June 2020.
Planning is underway for the drilling of a new production well in the Uquo field with long lead items having been procured. We are also finalising engineering for ordering compression equipment for the Accugas central processing facility. Both of these projects will ensure our continued ability to deliver gas at current and anticipated future increased contracted volumes to satisfy customer demand. To offer further flexibility in our gas conditioning capabilities, mechanical refrigeration trains for the processing plant were successfully installed and commissioned in October 2020.
So, in summary we had an excellent update and are due news on multiple fronts which could drop on to the RNS board any day soon.
Surely if the results are going to be good, AK will be keen to expedite there publication maybe end of March, beginning of April as it would have a profound effect on the company not only its share price but access to debt restructuring for Accugas and Funding for Niger and hopefully a divi.
AK for pities sake get the promised news out about new Customers and the Plan for Niger. This is the getting beyond the near future. Maybe they should have said news will be released in "the fullness of time" like politicians do. Frustrated like many others
Interesting - now we have our Chairman SJ taking up a role at Viaro who provide the type of funding we'd be looking for - so any chance they are a potential candidate for pre funding Niger ?
'We are an Independent British Energy Company active in production and trading. We have grown rapidly since 2012, the Viaro Group reached turnover of close to $1 billion in 2019. We have production assets in the UKCS and commodities we trade include gasoline, middle distillates, petrochemicals, naphtha, fuel oil, and crude oil with global trading houses and other counterparties. Through our trading activities, the Viaro Group has established strong relationships with many oil and gas operators. '
Viaro Energy has been trading petroleum and petrochemical products with international partners since 2012. Our trading is based on a network of established international partners, but our intention is to enhance our business by expanding our network and researching new opportunities. Oil and Gas is our core business.
From FinnCap in the last 8 weeks re Niger -
"Savannah is also considering a potential pre-payment facility as a funding option."
"The funding requirement to develop the five R3 East discoveries is ~US$60m. On our estimates, Savannah would be able to finance this organically from existing cash resources and the free cash flow we expect it to generate in Nigeria. However, management has said that each business needs to stand on its own, and so financing will require either partnering or project finance. Management is expecting to provide and update on its future plans in the near future".
Says a lot about the quality of the Rockrose assets as SJ always associated with top quality businesses.
Interesting that Steve Jenkins joined the board at Viaro Energy in June just before the announcement of a takeover offer for Rockrose ...
"Viaro had $950m turnover in 2019. Its directors include Stephen Jenkins, who ran the North Sea-focused Nautical Petroleum firm that Cairn Energy bought for £414m in 2012. RockRose shares closed up 702p at 1832p."
A friend of mine bought some BTC back around 2013. He changed his home computer and smashed up his old hard drive and dumped it with the BTC having given up on them as he didn’t want any ‘crap’ on his new computer! He only had around £50 and could be bothered to swap the wallet over. It was about $120 a coin then!
I wonder how many people have done something similar. I expect there are many lost coins.
We all wish we bought BITCOIN :)