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TiL - yes it is a very good paper on what’s going on in Africa and as we have been involved with SAVE for some time, we are reasonably educated on what the paper is saying.
I wonder that if AIM push us in to resisting on AIM we could go down this route again and from the paper:-
“The period between signing and completion has also become longer. The government consent process is dictated by law in many jurisdictions, with a “deemed” consent if not approved within a specified time period, but it takes a brave buyer to agree to complete a deal without formal approval.”
If we did go down the deemed consent route in SS, personally I would see it a less of a risk with SAVE not being operator. I don’t think the SS Government would / could just re-nationalise or portions.
Fianlly, if we do go down the deemed route, it will be very interesting how the market take it. Would they respond better if we walked away or continued with deemed consent? But with every month that goes by (assuming production is still taking place) our debt liability at the end of the deal is getting smaller.
We simply KNOW nothing!
Great summary on challenges facing deal making in Africa this year and beyond
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/545796/deals-in-africa-10-things-to-watch-in-2024/
I would still like to see a partner involved in Niger
I think we have capacity allocated and I seem to recollect 45km at a cost of $30m but simple design and relatively short time to construct and commission.
The Pantheon Resources cost for their hot tap into the Trans Alaska Pipeline System ('TAPS') main oil pipeline is estimated to be $20 million... and a rather protracted affair.
Did SAVE issue any info, back in the ‘early Niger days’, as to the cost and accessibility into the Niger export pipeline?
TiL - I’m sure there must be reasons why we have not progressed Niger a bit more even taking into consideration the wait for pipeline and recent coup. Back in 2015/16 AK told me in a 1 to 1 he was going to dril dril drill and prove prove prove and then sell without ever producing a single barrel and i quote ‘why would I ever want all the hassle of being a producer’!!! How times change eh?
Am bit disappointed to be promised 1.5k trucked for so so long and then a total backtrack without any explanation. I am guessing it either was not worth the hassle or to do with SAVE’s overall ESG calculations.
But with 5 from 5 nearly 6 years ago, 33m 2C, 6.8bn unrisked and an export pipeline operational I also would like to see some short-term decent size projects being delivered here including 1.5k to 5k in the shortest time possible along with an aggressive drilling program.
For all the bad luck and high risk stuff we’ve had and taken on, a good result in Niger in the short term, on it’s own could make our SP move in a very positive direction.
I never thought that this would be so high to the top of my thoughts again so soon. Just goes to show though, in Africa, you need lots of irons in the fire to give you a good chance on the law of averages of something landing.
Anyway, only 9 trading days to go before we get news on 2nd April and who knows maybe before.
GLA
Moved into our 16th month now for suspension and i do wonder how long it can go on. While the company surely knows what the delays are, shareholders are in the dark and limbo.
I wonder if there is another acquisition being worked up but surely this would have been newsworthy and announced by now (the 'at least 1 other hydrocarbon asset by end 2023').
While not suspended, Seplat is till trying to get its Nigerian acquisition over the line from Exxon which was announced 25 months ago despite them being in the country over 10 years.
Hoping a finance minister which has previous ministry of petroleum experience alongside the current petroleum minister have some sense and can convince Kiir to approve our deal but I wouldn’t hold my breath
another ss finance minister sacked and replaced by former minister of petroleum. the ss ministerial **** show continues…… remember the sacked minister is the one who talked about the caltech saga.
https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1768937985276264899?s=46
Tier - I do wonder how long the suspension can continue. There are projects in Africa still awaiting signature five years on. We are getting on for one and a half years. There has to be a drop dead date, and as far as I'm concerned we've past it. It doesn't sound to me like a signature is imminent in spite of what the Co may be convincing LSE, and in Africa small steps forward can be knocked back in a flash with the carousel of changing government personnel who have other ideas. For me this has also added a significant risk factor to SAVE shares if/when they resume trading pending the next potential lengthy suspension, and I'll be looking to reduce my position.
Rockyride - Pleased to see Niger coming back into play for Savannah now, time to stop dilly dallying on Niger and commence an aggressive work programme
Bola Tinubu's U-turn on Niger sanctions received with relief in northern Nigeria https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68563579
They basically confirmed still no government approval; not that we wouldn’t have accurately predicted. I don’t mind further extension but are we likely to get this deal and surely AIM will want a lot of questions answered in order to justify more time given?
Hello RR.
I join all the others to send my deep gratitude.
My very best to you, 🐸
Yes, many thanks RR.
Any inkling in your IR conversation as to those 'other' aquisitions?
Full Interview - https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2024/focus-on-south-sudans-oil-sector-a-promising-future-ahead/
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-bayssen-amami-208a2355_tr%c3%a8s-honor%c3%a9e-de-repr%c3%a9senter-lagence-activity-7173307190714265600-xwio?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
🌱🌱 very honoured to represent agence nationale pour la maîtrise de l'energie anme in the tunisian 🇹🇳🇹🇳 delegation to the uk 🇬🇧🇬🇧 for a busy agenda in london, glasgow and edinburgh for sustainable energy and decarbonisation.
the delegation brought together directors from the ministry of industry, energy and mines, steg tunisie, groupe chimique tunisien and the bizerte cement plant. we had the opportunity to share an overview of the opportunities and challenges facing the industrial sector ahead of the entry into force of the cbam.
🌟on the first day, we held an open dialogue with leading uk investors and developers interested in learning about opportunities to invest in renewable energy, green hydrogen and decarbonisation such as british international investment, globeleq, savannah energy, mott macdonald, dints international, itm power and pash global.
🌟the afternoon was spent in one-on-one meetings with national grid, ofgem and the foreign, commonwealth and development office. the day successfully concluded with a masterclass on the carbon-market, raising the opportunity to make the tunisian energy market more attractive to foreign💡💡 investors.
🍹 📸 we were invited by his excellency. mr. el oued, ambassador of tunisia in london, for a welcome ****tail during which he spoke about the importance of close collaboration in the field of energy transition and decarbonization with the united kingdom.
🎯🎯with our focus on green hydrogen, we couldn't miss the opportunity to visit scotland 🏴🏴. we visited the uk's national engineering laboratory to collaborate with the tÜv sÜd. next, we were invited to visit the site of logan energy limited, a british company specialising in hydrogen-based solutions. a discussion with the scottish hydrogen & fuel cell association concluded the mission.
I just put my 2 penneth in to a debate on the other board and I thought I’d pop a copy of what I wrote on here. Maybe useful to any new people who are in research mode…
As a long term holder (first purchase at 40p and bought all the way down to 8p) I clearly understand and respect everyone’s view on this debate. All views will differ significantly based on many things but 3 of the main things will generally be, when people invested, what was their investment period and what they deemed success to look like.
However, in the cold light of day, this year SAVE (formerly SAVP) will see its 10th anniversary since its IPO. At the time of IPO 218.4m shares were issued and the SP was 56p.
Whilst I clearly understand that Rome was not built in a day and that businesses are not grown out of bottle tops, IMHO, LTH’s here do have the right to be disappointed as to where we are at. I guess any BOD member, any II or any PI who invested at day one would have ever dreamed that the SP would now be 26p with 1.3bn shares in issue.
Over a shorter period, which in Africa may not be fair to mention, but I will - 2023 was a disaster. With AK often saying ‘we do what we say we will do’ and that ‘we are an AND company not an OR company, 2023 was horrific.
SAVE set themselves a suite of KPI’s for the year and from memory as i can’t be bothered to check, the 2023 KPI’s were:-
1 to close South Sudan RTO deal from Petronas
2 to close one other hydrocarbon acquisition
3 restructure Accugas debt
4 end the year with 1GW of renewable deals underway
5 complete a well test program in Niger
As far as I know, all the above is factually correct and everyone is allowed to draw their own conclusions from it all.
Personally, I am extremely disappointed as to where we are at but I will certainly not be making any panic sells whenever we should re-list. If SS should fail, everyone will be disappointed and the SP way take a knock, but with all the following seemingly improving, I see the medium term to be very rosy for our Market Cap and subsequnt SP:-
1 CPF to complete soon in Nigeria which i think is more significant that a lot of people realise
2 First oil in Niger and could be higher than 1.5kboepd from day one IMHO
3 I believe the 4 x ICC cases are looking very favourable le for us and I expect a minimum of $500m being awarded. If the oil revenue is being held on account, I firmly believe we will see a large one-off distribution
4 Other hydrocarbon deals could be very well worked up
5 Our renewable team in SAVE is strong and although I’ve never attributed anything to it, it could be huge in the future and as Z says, potentially be floated off in it’s own right
6 Dare I say we may even close the Accugas debt deal. The NGN has improved from 1,624 to 1,604 today - GREEN SHOOTS? PMSL
Anyway, thats enough from me, I’m sick and tired of typing and only just got in from watching The Christians!
BLOODY BRILLIANT?
Thanks and appreciated RR.
Thanks RR. Much appreciated.
We covered a lot of ground on a country by country tour of Africa. There were lots and lots of smaller convos but here are the main snippets:-
SS
“AK backwards and forwards from SS whilst conducting other work in different African places.”
“That’s, very astute of you to say that. And yes, IdEALLY AK is pushing very hard for a strong Government commitment before any issue of AD”
NIGER
“Things are going well again and we do expect first oil this year although we could not give a date as to when”
“Savannah have recently spoken to the Government who are keen to see first oil from Savannah TY but more importantly want to see more drilling from out company”
CHAD / CAMEROON
“We have the same set of attorneys working on the case since they were first appointed. AK is happy with the work they are doing and they will be retained until ICC decisions are made”
NIGERIA
“BAU is going well and debt restructure is still very high up on the agenda”
GLA
@ Rocky - many thanks for posting, its given me a lift !
@TIL - agree an extension wouldn't that bad at all as would likely indicate meaningful progress must have been made.
@NTM - echo your sentiments on doing business in Africa. From my own experience, it often feels like a game of snakes and ladders. But if you go about it in the right way and have plenty of patience you win more often than not. And, when you do win, you win big.
GLA