Investing Matters Podcast - Episode 3 featuring award winning tech innovator Elizabeth Gooch MBE is now LIVE. Listen here.
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Like upgrading your house interiors with 24k gold everything but your house price stays the same as your neighbours’; some sharp cookie then decides to buy it just to strip off the gold… :)
Please everyone have a good week while waiting. Enjoy your posts. Thank you.
AK has on paper created large value here. The market hasn't wanted to recognise this so far though.. but from 6p to 19p was good progress ahead of this suspension, at least... so maybe that's changing.. and maybe that change can even speed up on the right next deal completing - only when the detail is revealed of whatevr deal can that judgement be made - but 6p here was a farcically low s/p anyway so its still much too early to say imho..
Which brings me on to a little elaboration on Snaffleman's post just below: because it's a business in Africa it will always be MUCH harder to have this share price rally to what on paper seems 'global ' fair value imho. On top of that this is an AIM sector that is massively out of favour as a rule and may stay so.. sure it has rallied decently this year, but from very low levels and off the back of now very strong O&G prices .. but versus historic sector, valuations current ones are still generally poor to bad versus such a favourable macro backdrop ?.. (simple generic eg - of which save.l is one of many that fits into- would be a stock off from 100p a few years back to 10p in 2020 and people then trumpet a 'wow' 200% rally this year .. that's still only 30p versus 100p a few years ago)
Generally, the current very high price of gas - and perhaps oil too - is absolutely not medium term sustainable imho.. it would crash economic recoveries and cause recessions etc.. and, given aformentioned relatively uninspiring rallies so far, this illustrates to me that this sector will, one way or other, remains a poor sector generally to be a long term long in .. however there will be some exceptions to that .. and here's very much hoping that save.l will be one .
Why as you claim did you invest in the first place in a region that you will never get value and worse is full of corruption.?
Dusteringmong if you’re not happy then as soon as relist happens you should sell whatever the price and stop moaning ….I assume you did some research beforehand….I’m happy to wait…
Interesting debate as usual on the SAVE board.
Duster does in fact have a point on shareholder creation.
So far there has been nothing, absolutely zilch since we took over the Seven assets. No share price growth, no dividends, since the deal was completed just under 2 years ago. He also makes a good point with Rockrose and Kistos.
Rockrose listed in 2016 and I believe went from 50p to over £20, whilst paying a dividend. I think it was brought out for £16 a share.
Andrew Austin then listed Kistos in November 2020 at around £1 a share. Another North sea gas play. Share price now £3.60.
That is what I call share holder value creation. All this has occurred since SAVP was listed in 2014 at 56p a share. Share price currently 19p. Woeful!
However the building blocks do appear to be in place for SAVE. To AKs credit the seven assets appear to be performing excellently. Production up, costs cut, and debt being paid down quickly. Niger with the current oil price and sentiment in the sector should be a company maker on its own. Throw in the Exxon deal and this could easily be a multi billion pound company.
Zengas has put forward many comparisons with valuations of KOSMOS and TLW to show what SAVE could be worth.
If this all comes together, and remember the amount of shares AK owns and the institutions average, with a bull market for oil and gas you would think £2 to £3 could easily be achievable in the coming years.
Your never going to get full value here because of the location and corruption in Africa.
Would be better buying closer to home not all eggs in a risky basket
60p to 20p wow well done AK Thanks come on guys we heard all this after the Severn transaction what happened to all the promise then?
Dusterinmong, I think that's wrong again....he....AK has delivered... he has delivered exactly what he said he would...the timeline might not suit you..obviously..
The share price is not reflecting the great foundations that have been put in place...
I held Eland a few years ago and couldn't believe how long it seemed to take for people to catch on... all came out in the wash though..
He needs to deliver which has not been the case so far
Lets see if he can over the coming months?
This is my last post on this subject and it could come over as either defensive, stupid or both….but I don’t care, I absolutely believe that:-
Massive shareholder value has been created with the assets we currently have, current production and the future growth of existing assets that we now have a line of site to. Admittedly all that counts is the SP, and we have not seen the shareholder value reflected here (quite the contrary) - but we surely will see it in the short to medium term (3 to 18 months).
Then any new assets added will complement this released shareholder value into the SP along with a very healthy dividend being paid.
AK has created no shareholder value over the years is my point.
He needs to deliver sooner rather than later imho
Compared to some D-
I feel confident that the staff issue will be resolved and is in fact, a relatively small part of the overall deal both financially and in terms of legal work. It goes with the territory and is written into the risk/reward ratio. Having done a few take-overs and sold a couple of companies, in the UK admittedly, there are always difficult points of negotiation right up to the close. They become greater than the sum of their parts purely because they hold up all the work that has be done previously. If there is a will on both parties for them to be resolved then they will be. I suspect AK is a tough negotiator.
Furthermore, without this staff problem I wonder if Exxon might be back at the table given the price of gas. In hindsight, it might actually serve SAVE well in the end.
Look at TWD great prospect if you think Electrick is the future for good luck dyor
60p to 10p
How has value for holders been created mate all I see here is declines albeit a run to 19p may onwards.
Hardly inspiring this guy running the Show and am out as soon as this gets past 35p
You say Aim there are plenty of good Aim stocks not in Africa
This s all about risk and reward for us and the company. Clearly these are higher risk and will come with huge rewards if and when over the line. SAVE have always set their strategy around Africa and have done so since day one whey bought 2 PSC’s in Niger. Those PSC‘ s were reluctantly relinquished by CNPC due to lack of contracted drilling. We now have an absolutely World class asset with 100% success rates.
Our BOD have excellent experience in Africa with proven track records and there is no way a small emerging company would be picking up and developing Would class assets for the prices we pay in the EU or many other parts of the World.
Yes this stuff is very difficult but was even more risky when I first bought in to a company that owned a load of sand in the middle of Africa. For me, I completely knew the risk and the company could have gone to the wall by now.
I should not even be debating this really as we are where we are and we have always known this. Anybody who wishes to moan about everything we do in Africa quite frankly should not be invested in AIM.
Here endith my history lesson which may be seen as free research after the horse has bolted.
I’m convinced we will get this over the line and the longer it goes on the better chance we have. The workers over there need to earn money to take home to their families and I’m sure this will get resolved and hopefully very soon.
And hey ho, should this fail, there are plenty more fish in the sea and our nets are well and truly cast.
Let’s hope we get a chunky update by the end of the month.
If it doubles or more on relist no issue worth the wait. If it gets called off buy the dip on opening would surely be over 30p now anyway?
Point taken but we don't have to keep doing deals in dodgy places either which a prone to what's happening again now
AK can spend the cash closer to home diversify away from Africa
I may be wrong, but I don't think Andrew Austin had to deal with, or in, any African nation state before.
I was invested in Rockrose then kistos
Andrew Austin is head and shoulders above this guy here on getting deals done, and in a decent timeframe.
My frustration with AK is lack of comms poor imho, and let's face it the last deal and this have been far longer than expected.
Hopefully be worth it in the end
See what I mean - ha ha ha
IZ - it’s a bit of a challenge mate. Having said that my English / grammar has always been appalling to the extent of embarrassing to be honest, although do have a bit of dyslexia and never re-read stuff after I’ve written it.
Anyway here’s an interesting little read. Leats hope OPEC+ can control Brent around the $85 - $95 range. The worry now though in the medium to long term, they may not be able to ramp up production high enough, especially if new wells are not invested in quickly enough, the demand for power continues to rise and growth of renewable power does not happen quickly enough.
Ooohhhpppsss sorry for my English, I was on my treadmill trying to pass a bit of time while the miles were slowly ticking up.
I share folks frustrations but should all know what we invest in and this should have been factored into everyone’s risk/reward analysis. In fact let’s not forget that this is AIM with a company operating in a very high risk area…
Shares can go up and down
Don’t invest funds that you can’t afford to loose
And all the other wise words which could be applied
Yes, if we had not taken on the RTO we would more than likely be higher than 19p now but that will flow in even if this deal fails.
And although I’m a long term holder, my main concerns are:-
Oil and gas prices becoming too high and stalling global economic growth - global recession
Linked in to the above - stagflation where we see high inflation without the corresponding economic growth
I’m still confident of the global macro stuff myself but am watching with a hawk eye news from China, the US, India and hydrocarbon prices. I hope that we return before any of my unexpected concerns happening which would at least give the opportunity to turn to cash!
Finally, premium bonds and cash ISA’s are readily available and should perhaps be considered a bit more seriously by some farther by some people who’ve previously been a tad lazy with their previous research.
“We're all free to express views without your baby insults.”
“Come on Andrew fkiiing sort your shyýte pls hurry now.”
Should practice what you preach them plus I haven’t stated any opinions only facts.
I don't really sympathise, dusterinmong should not have invested in a company that has stated and that is part of the game plan to actively look for and acquire company enhancing deals for the benefit of all involved. Obviously didn't do any DD before investing. Typical of todays society, always someone else's fault.
I sympathise if, as a result of the suspension, funds are tied up that you need, for whatever reason.
However, looking at the bigger picture and the jigsaw that AZ and his team are looking to put together, the Cameroon/Chad deal, in the CEO's words, will be transformational.
As I've previously stated, not only does AZ and the board have an obligation to act in shareholder's interests, their actions are doubly relevant given their "skin in the game".
Zengas in particular has been generous enough to share his workings and forecast of what can be reasonably expected should/when the deal concludes and frustrating though it may be, patience is required, if only because there's no other option. However, I don't believe you will be disappointed when the fat lady finally does start to sing.