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Truth is hard to come by with you M/box so glad you agree with Swindon.
Well known i was in Bowleven well below 100p and it reached 430p in 2011. There was plenty of reasons to dyor, somethinhg you never do but always look for scapegoats for your own lack of being able to follow events. There's been an asset disposal, a special dividend of 15p last year as well to take in not to mention the fall off in 2014-15 giving todays price of 3p. You're meant to follow events as they happen good or bad to take what ever investment decisons you think fit - but there's no disguising someone like yourself who's a class one 'thorn' if you know what i mean.
As a number of others have pointed out elsewhere your made up stories on your lastest stocks and never backed by any reasonable research beggars belief with one getting 24 votes for calling you out mid week on your short term price target where he says " Call me a cynic but Munchbox you will be long gone before 23-24p" (BNM) and another "am afraid Muncbox that your comment "We DO NEED some decent news for the next leg up or it will be 30% up and then 30% down" really shows you have little understanding ".
As for Swindon41 - he also posted the factually incorrect on 3rd May "I fear your 200p is total fantasy. Just like GKP figures of 300p and 400p were a fantasy". - despite myself and 2-3 others telling him it reached 430p in 2012. He couldn't man up and admit/respond he was incorrect but turns up with another insight today, 4 weeks later comes back with his first post since.
You both are out, no one is asking you, Swindon or anyone to invest. If you don't like the posts that's your problems. I haven't seen either of you offer one single insight into the company prospects other than crticism of where the s/p is.
Incidentally the previous Numis guidance had 198p unrisked and that was only on part of the asset potential. How do they get away with it and all the other brokers - shows how out of touch, irrational and thick you are with any PI posting her/his thoughts on a bb. Grow up ladies.
Swindon41. Excellent post mate. Good to see someone else have a head on their shoulders. I have nothing against zengas but he does ramp too much. I remember him ramping bowleven to the moon when it was around £3-4 and it’s now 3p. Many investors don’t know or have the knowledge to research company details so rely on people like him to buy and sell. He’s tricked tooooo many and what annoys me is he gets away with it every time. How ?
Hang on a minute Swindon41, i never in any shape or form said "fill your boots" here or at Ptal - so please be honest to what you attribute.
As for Ptal - As it delivers to it's buyer - It's oil doesn't get delivered, sold and paid for on the main market , by up to 8-12 months. It continually delivers to it's buyer on a daily basis and they paid for the oil on that daily basis on the assumption that any shortfall when eventiually sold would be compensated for if prices were lower when ultimately sold on the main market- Likewise if the future price was greater than at present then Ptal benefiited further - so it worked both ways.
"When the oil is ultimately sold PetroTal will receive a valuation adjustment based on the actual price achieved by Petroperu, whether higher or lower".
With the sudden outbreak and onset of Covid 19 - oil prices raipdly cratered leaving a quick deficit of $42m as everything shut down which would have been completely unexpected for any company. This has reduced to $35m in 1 month and they expect prices to be stronger in Q3/Q4 when the oil is sold on the main market meaning the deficit of $35m may be greatly reduced. The pipeline is shut in due to health restrictions and expected to open next month.
The company went from an under 2,000 bopd producer to 15,000 in a year and a half and significantly increased it's reserves in that time. At $35/b brent reference it still makes a netback of $14/b which on 10-15,000 bopd is still $50m - $75m/yr and significant tax breaks.
In my view it's a short term kick where it hurts and has come about as the company aggressively spent on facilities etc to take production to 20,000 bopd which they had in their sights for the end of this year. It's one of the lowest cost oil producers around and on it's 47 mmbo P2 reserves at 10.25p it's valued at £69m/$86m or just $1.84 per P2 barrel. The RF is expected to be a lot more and in line with a minimum 24% which has already increased in the past 12 months - so implies a reasonable 80 mmbls P2 on the RF alone. Other analogue fields are showing 30-36% RF. In the meantime i'm happy to stick with it.
Alternatively, tread very very carefully. ......Zengas also said fill your boots with PTAL earlier this year and said multiple times it was as cheap as chips at 25p. Well, out comes a massive unknown cash liability , share price smashes to 10p and below. Overall I respect the research Zengas does and his knowledge of the sector, and he may well be right with SAVE . But sometimes things emerge as a blindside that defy all the background research and diligence.
K has still offered no update on cash, the background to that huge arrears in Nigerian debts owing to the company, and I would still be concerned about a CEO who is so shy about revealing this critical business information to its owners. Remember, you ARE the joint owners. If I am wrong to be suspicious I shall put it down to a further learning opportunity and take off my hat to you all sticking with it. GLA either way.
As Zengas pointed out, I’d like to know how much we’ve paid to retain the current licences.
As I read it we are getting paid. There is just an amount outstanding that is/was unpaid. Totally agree with sentiment, driven by a lack of news that’s been driven by a close period, or general hubris with a persistent seller(s) in the mix. The seller may be forced or save just doesn’t fit in, who knows but no TR1’s and AK’s 100 odd meetings have not netted out to insti selling or buying, they’ve held, obviously the sp fall would have been explained and likewise a reason to hold.
The sp has dropped on relatively low volume as often is the case on aim. The UT trades have been small (£1-2k) indicating a relative balance of buys and sell’s. It seems that the seller has a bucket of shares to offload but they are doing it gradually, happy to get rid at this price. Remember it’s the ‘aggressors’ trade that is published, so the trades are matched. In the event of the 3m buy, the sellers broker matched the sale. Sp didn’t move. In the even of the odd 50/25k sells the seller managed to offload whilst there was liquidity. Many of the small buys have I suspect been PI topping up matched by the seller. Obviously all the trades are not the same person but we have been at this level for ages with business slowly being done in 7-8p range. Any volume above 8p and it’s dumped on pegging us back. What a ‘conspiracy’ as no holdings triggered. However, that bucket of stock will empty at some point and hopefully news will arrive to take out any left.
I don’t know about you guys but the cpr feels like a spud and the results feel like TD time. It really shouldn’t be like that as the results are looking back but such is the concern about historic cashflow that buyers seem to be ignoring the cpr and ignoring ak’s reassurances.
I just cant see the results meaning we are suddenly worth say £70m. I personally don’t see that downside. If that were the case I bet a CNOC would agree with me and just tot up the assets and bid or even aiim. It’s really a strange one but worth reminding oneself of ak’s ‘last words’....
Niger...
"I believe that our new Niger Competent Persons Report once again independently verifies the value potential of our asset base in-country.”
Nigeria...
“....In stark contrast Savannah, working closely with our principal customer Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) and the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) - who we thank for their strong cooperation - has increased our gas production levels by 34% since completing the acquisition of the Nigerian Assets....”
Now I’m clinging on to the fact that AK can’t sit across a table with insti’s, govt and potential customers, spin all this and then we go under which let’s face it a £78m MCAP is a distressed firesale price. There’s gonna be a light at the end of this one and i’ve been buying.
Trek
It’s totally inconceivable to think SAVE would increase market share by a whopping 40% while not getting paid for the original contracted gas. Clearly the tweets from Oge Peters is a massive signal to PI’s that SAVE are being paid. We are currently making money hand over fist and have strategically place ourselves to further ramp-up supply. The shares have crashed due to a distressed seller/s, terrible IR/ PR comms, COVID-19, shorters and general market sentiment towards O & G. All this has help suppressed the SP to ridiculously low levels. For fair value, the SP should be multiples of its current price!!!!! The worm is going to turn very soon and SAVE will shoot-up into the 20’s over the next few weeks. IT’S FILL YOUR BOOTS TIME!!!!!