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Trek, I'd be very happy if we have similar SP action following relist ??. Hope it's soon but my money is on another 4-5 weeks of this......
ADV were suspended from 17Dec to 31st March, if SAVE run to a similar time scale then 3 and a bit months would mean we should hear something around mid September.
I wonder if the relishing will come with a placing. This deal constitutes a RTO so it may well be that SAVE recapitalises to to take on the pipeline(s) and also refinances existing debt at the same time.
I was just looking through ADV’s relisting RNS’s. I do not hold any stock there. This is quiet interesting in terms of improving one’s own knowledge...
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ADV/update-re-proposed-reverse-takeover-transaction-4wl0iagcw9rhqij.html
Trek
Glad you posted this link Porschefund, the quarterly Goehring & Rozencwajg newsletters are an absolute must read for those interested in O&G and other commodities sectors. These and Crescat Capital’s newsletters are really thought provoking.
“This board is unique there is no nastiness. Everyone is a sincere holder. Quite extraordinary.”
Don’t worry all that will change in a heartbeat when SAVE is re-listed and the herd arrive :)
Cross-posting with you 911! That sounds interesting too. Thanks! Now everyone is suggesting something and I’m spoilt for choice! :-)
Love your wisdom Zone. As it happens I’m currently reading up on Russian history. As if you’re reading my mind. I work a lot. No sports with this virus going on. Apart from running. Starting back on tennis. This board is unique there is no nastiness. Everyone is a sincere holder. Quite extraordinary.
Tier- Some reading material for you while we wait.
http://info.gorozen.com/2021-q2-market-commentary-iea-ushers-in-coming-oil-crisis?utm_campaign=2021%202Q%20Commentary&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9CJraZwmjCeqxNfTNIJ4hfFJTs9m72q2puvMw6suwjy5Ag8URO0SQHx64Mc1BtO-qNpBHYwWD1CGzBAZ2hJCaKnHII3g&_hsmi=146588065&utm_content=146588065&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=4ae10555-2654-4c83-85eb-e67df8c2ca82%7Cb36fa1a4-5d02-4da7-abd6-d10a7da9c590
When will we reopen!? I miss this board so much! Nothing to read :(
dividends are game changing for shareholders here who acquired the majority of my holdings at 7-9p , once dividends are announced i expect to recoup my outlay here within three years easily
Olderandwiser maybe not for starters right away but definitely setting up the possibility of it going forward.
If they could pay out a similar $400m over the next number of years or so like Seplat has done, that would be about 30p/share on a billion shares or even at 30% future dilution about 22p at current exch rates.
Seplat IPO'd in April 2014 and was already a producer with $775m full yr revenues for 2014.
Dividends running at just shy of $60m/yr
Floated at 210p - price now circa 100p.
Interview last week with Seplat CEO says now in growth mode/ANOH gas plant etc next year and this will enhance dividends even more. At 2 mins in - "since IPO we have given back over $400m in dividends to shareholders". https://www.lse.co.uk/media/seplat-energys-ceo-roger-brown-hosts-london-capital-markets-day-and-focuses-the-strategy.html
Worth bearing in mind that Seplats total $400m+ of dividends still came about despite 2 previous oil price slumps prior to covid, delta unrest and a long period of very sizeable shut in oil production (Nigeria only and no other geographic focus), then covid and ultra low prices.
Save IPO'd in Agust 2014 but did not become a producer until the very end of 2019 so has ground to make up in paying dividends. Floated 56p now just shy 20p.
My estimate is if Exxon acquisition goes through and with a small 3,000 bopd uplift in Doba production it should put us on a par with current Seplat revenue.
When Save acquired the Accugas business, based on approx the $120m/yr FCF of existing contracts & production, it was envisaged that it would contribute $12.5m in dividends. It's been running now for 18 months so with refinancing of the debt, i would have thought it will be a goal that AK will want to complete on.
With Doba and Agadem yet to come plus any other possible acquisitions which is their stated objective, you couldn't rule out Save being a very sizeable future dividend player.
A dividend of $60mn/year, for starters, is about 4.5p/sh. Not bad. Then, with a progressive dividend policy over the next few years, say 5p, 6p, and for many of us LTHs we will effectively get our capital returned in full in possibly 3 years, with all still to play for.
Further to Treks Seplat post -
Average oil price was $64.69/b and Gas $2.86/mcf.
$308.8m half year revenue from 30,028 bpd oil & 20,000 bpd gas = 50,028 boepd.
Save guidance from Nigeria assets = greater than $205m/ full year so pro rata half year should be $102m+ (before any significant gas sale increases).
Gas price averaged $3.90/mcf.
If the Exxon acquisition goes through and doing a minimum of 13,200 bopd at a similar $64.69/b = $156m/half yr.
$10m+ half yr from pipeline fees.
On completion it should put Save on roughly $270m/half year revenue or just over 10% shy of Seplat.
A modest increase of 3k bopd at Doba would see Save on the same level of revenue as Seplat whose recent m/cap has ranged between £500-£600m and have reiterated roughly the same guidance for the year ahead.
I would have thought Save could increase its net Doba oil production by 6-7,000 bopd. Up to 5,000 bopd to come from Niger EPS.
Seplat is solely one country of operations in terms of risk and doesn't have the reserve upside from the likes of Save in Niger with 2.4 billion bls mid case risked recoverable. Seplat too is yet to rerate/future growth pipeline etc so imo it sets out a valuation marker for Save in the short-medium term given it was said to catapult them into the premier league of E&P.
Paying out a dividend of just under $60m/yr.
Let’s hope with the substantial cost savings at Accugas and the intended acquisition of Exxon’s assets that there soon will be a substantial dividend here.
Prior to the Exxon deal, Finncap had 2.4c EPS for next year which is about $24m not counting any new gas sales.
I can’t make call. Hope there is a replay.
SEPL some good interim numbers and a divi announced as well today...
•
Revenue up 32% to $308.8 million
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EBITDA of $178.9 million
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Cash generated from operations $125.8 million
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Cash at bank $298.8 million, net debt of $456.4 million
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Successful issue of $650 million 7.75% senior notes to redeem existing $350 million 9.25% senior notes and repay $250 million drawn on $350 million RCF
•
Refinanced $100 million Westport RBL facility; raised a $50 million offtake linked to the RBL in July
•
Total capital expenditure of $57.5 million
Trek
Savannah Energy PLC, the African-focused British independent energy company sustainably developing high quality, high potential energy projects in Nigeria and Niger, is pleased to announce CEO Andrew Knott will be hosting a retail investor webinar on 29 July, 10:30-12:00 (BST) featuring a presentation and Q&A session with leading energy expert, Dr Richard Norris.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAVE/retail-investor-webinar-use4zwhvm61uvwb.html
surely due Q2 results end of the month, as its BAU ?
Apart from the unexpected news on Chad, several well-flagged pieces of corporate and Nigerian news were expected in H1. It seems to me a long time without an RNS?