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Be sure to not let the door hit you in the back as you leave....
You can shout out all you want AimtoDeath. You should appreciate that I share my work here -The numbers speak for themselves. I am not here to blow the Sav thesis. I am here to share my calcuations.
Do not explain to me the NPV over the number of years. 11y because Sav assumes the consumption of 75% of group - or their PFS assumes they will produce 0.29mt over life of mine vs 0.38Mt of group resource.
In comparison, ZNWD FS assumes consumption of less than 30% of theirs.
Npv. Moreover, a resource with short duration merits a lower multiple.
Your arguments about costs and IRR. We all know spodumene has low capex and this high irr. Nothing new here. And cost is already factored in the Npv analysis.
Further; unproven - is suggest you check the market cap and valuations of EMH which shares the same Cinovec resource with ZNWD - and perhaps so have to tell VW that that type of resource is untested - their likely offtake partners.
You miss the key point that in reality, all EU resource should be approved as even if you assume all these get a green light, the EU wouldn’t attain its 80% self sufficiency.
Anyway I am not here to waste my time arguing with someone who instead of having a thoughtful discussion, choses to attack.
'Not so dumbpunter' number of times I hear people pushing their resource because it is a. Big or b. High grade but they neglect to compare the golden figure C1 cash cost and even recovery rates to better align projects. The DFS here will show a 15yr+ project (20yr with a little more drilling) and one of the lowest C1 costs in the spodumene industry. Galaxy was $450/t last year, Pilbara sits on $350/t before our reduced not CIF anymore C1 is $270cif, but I reckon $50 saved in shipping to China alone with EU buyer, more so the first important years of ramp up and debt pay back SAV will have a C1 less than $200/t with the bull case for a peak of $1000/t spod as we come on line... That is a very safe investment given we will have a guaranteed preferential market too. Finance will be more favourable and cheaper than 2018 would have been. And the safety net is SAV can then operate at the lowest price in spodumene last 2 years whilst others like Galaxy are shutting up shop. It is so much more than size and grade. AVZ has a cost in C1 of $346/t just on diesel trucks to the coast! Not a good ESG rating either. I'm not here for SAVs size but the economics and EU market.
No.1 Imagine the deserpation to come onto another BB to ramp your wares and put down the share on that board.....(extremely low personally) amd do it with misleading information....
No.2. If you are trying to suggest that Portuguese Gov having anthing to do with Galp decsion (though not theres) is laughable, they are a 7.48% holder. Galp are looking into Li because they know Gov would get behind them and access grants etc.
No.3. On current Scoping Study SAV has an NPV of $356m from a 11yr project IRR 63% and CAPEX of $109m, whereas Zinn has a $510m NPV over 30 years! IRR 27% and CAPEX $191..... I know you will want to shout about oh the figures will get better but so will SAV, resource has doubled, increased output and reduced C1 costs, by-product pricing increases, this will sail past $500m NPV
Zinn resource is NOT spodumene and is untested in Tier 1 batteries
So jog on.... and you didn't make it you have pasted it. All projects will be needed but trying to lie about other projects to push your own is poor.
Malik has done a great job of pointing out the apparent misalignment of valuations for lithium stocks. While everything he says seems to make sense I adopt the strategy that any and possibly every European lithium junior is going to do well and it’s probably best to hold them all. However I still believe that SAV is best placed and undervalued so keep most of my investment here. One day there will be a major breakthrough announced.
Yes Thanks for info. However your comments re ‘question marks’ over SAV & Portugal Li are completely misleading. The MdB mine in Portugal will produce Li ore - 2023- for Europe ultimately- once refiners come on stream. Portugal needs Li mining/ processing, etc and this will supercharge their economic recovery in manufacturing.
You may like to check out which party let the Galp / SAV talks lapse. In your commentary you say Galp. In SAVs commentary, they say SAV. Both sides still say they are still talking to each other.
Let’s look back with hindsight in a few months time, post EIA and as the market tightens.
I did a chart this morning, comparing the valuations of key lithium stocks (see link below).
I posted this for Zinnwald, but useful for all key names on space. This assumes close to spot hydroxide p.
For BCN, this is priced at share p as is today; not at higher takeout valuation. At takeout p, for BCN, you’d would need to add something like 8-9pp to the shown ratio.
https://twitter.com/malik49977264/status/1408326105879257089?s=21