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Hi Potnak yes we’re at the mercy of GSK who are not obliged to do us any favours. A long delay with 737 would strategically weaken Sar. As regards 1801/1802 I think the BID know exactly what they are worth pre and post phase 1 and have decided that it is worth the risk to pursue phase 1 before doing a deal. I think there is a frustration amongst many with historical delays, PR and general lack of clear communication other than cryptic tweets that continually fuels hope of a deal. The lack of II is also strange given there are other small pharma developing Tyk2 compounds that are well financed with large backing. I too think that it will have to be a patient wait until at least phase 1 for 1801 is completed and hopefully in the convening time something will transpire with 737. These are the only factors that will propel the s/p other than a surprise T/O.
Been saying this for years, the BoD pricks just want to keep themselves in a job until retirement! How many times have they purposely underplayed news releases. It’s a joke and they need to be booted out!
Hi All - not posted for a while but still follow the BB. You may recall we had some great results with SRA737 back in 2018/2019 (I think) when the AACR posters were published. Theses are on the SAR website and the conclusions section cites the results as STRIKING, SIGNIFICANT and COMPELLING!
We know our CHK1 works in combo very well and I’m certain GSK would have picked this up in DD. Time will tell as always
Spot on Krone ... They had such an opportunity yesterday to highlight the possibilities now that SRA737 is under the wings of GSK ... but as always most on here think the minimum legal requirement is good marketing and PR ... it was obvious where the SP would go based on the complete lack of enthusiasm being shown in news from SAR even when opportunities arise ... lets hope when they announce the CTA they elaborate more and blow those bloody trumpets I would love to know how much the marketing and PR 3rd party associations are paid by SAR for Jack S*it
Hi RMM, I am well thank you and many thanks once again for sharing your current thinking. I suppose the SRA737 situation will become clearer hopefully sooner rather than later. I absolutely concur with your sentiments regarding the BoD having the commercial nous to get Sareum noticed and on the radar and like you I am concerned that potential acquirers will lose interest or that the business model is broken by the time it is taking to really get things moving. The absence of proactive and dynamic PR is a long standing complaint and the occasional cryptic tweet simply adds to the frustration. It is equally frustrating that after years we still don't appear to have any institutions on board, we have heard nothing from Peel Hunt and we get little from Medistrava or Hybridan. All this in the context of having 3 drugs with world beating potential!
Hi NDR. Yes, We do all agree there is value in 737. How much is the question and at what risk? Science says there is potential but Pharma is business and for me, something doesn't add. There were 6 parties involved in the negotiation to buy Sierra, 6! but yet 1.9 billion was the highest bid. Those interested parties obviously didn't see a dead cert blockbuster or that number would have been much higher. If SRA737 was a dead-cert blockbuster. Dilly would have held out for much more. Follow the money. Anyone who has worked in sales will get this. SRA737 is an opportunity that has the potential to be a big sale. However, the sales guys know that there is a **** load of presales to do to get it over the line with no guarantee of a win so they keep it in hand. This makes their pipeline look healthy, the sales director can present a healthy-looking pipeline to the board and everyone is happy. Sooner or later, someone will have to commit to the project and throw some resources and cash at it. Hopefully, GSK will do that or licence it to someone who can or will.
I'm passed the science now. The board need to commercialise our assets. 18 months should see all compounds in trials. Then we can sell or sit back and wait for the results.
Potnak everyone is entitled to their opinion on this bb within reason which is what makes it so good. But no one can say definitively what GSK will decide to do with 737 before the year is out. I think what everyone agrees on is that it is not a worthless drug.
I'm in agreement with RMM and he presents the arguments much better than I ever do. I did say back in April that the GSK deal would give us more of the same in regards to waiting for them to develop SRA737. I still think and hope they will onlicence it or even sell it.
I am an optimist, but in terms of 737 I think there are strong drivers for optimism. Based on my own experience of M&A you discount the value of what the target claims their lead asset(s) are worth and then add in what you can do over and above what they can achieve. We know from Sierras own statements that they had limited funds to invest in 737. This constraint does not limit GSK for me 737 is probably what let them make the offer they did for Sierra (it was certainly a premium over what the market thought Sierra were worth with momo). I believe GSK see the added value in 737, I expect them to progress, buyout the licence or buyout SAR. There will be a reason the BOD is so silent and time will tell, then there is also the rest of the portfolio, for me there is everything to like here with the story getting better as time progresses. GLA and always draw your own conclusions, I see only upside from the current SP in the short/medium and longer term
Hi RMM. Hope you are ok. Surprised at your statement "Taking 737 first, unfortunately I think that the Sierra/GSK deal has muddied the water for 737. If GSK hadn't made the bid for Sierra then I would have expected 737 to have gone back into the clinic by now". I don't understand ,how you can come to this conclusion. Sierra have for the last few years shown no interest in progressing chk1, after initially being so positive. How would this tie up cause problems? GSK are a animal, and a big at that and have all the pieces to do the different trials. You also state , the science is proven, however I would argue that if GSK show no interest in chk1, them the science has failed. I don't believe that to be the case, chk1 is a potential blockbuster, as Sierra and the esteemed cancer specialists have commented.
Hi Krone. I remain well and I trust you do too? Only popping onto the BB every so often as I think the science is no longer the issue but how the BoD commercialises the opportunities open to it. Taking 737 first, unfortunately I think that the Sierra/GSK deal has muddied the water for 737. If GSK hadn't made the bid for Sierra then I would have expected 737 to have gone back into the clinic by now. What I can't quite understand is why GSK is making no mention of the pipeline beyond Momo. From my experience when you do your DD on a target you value all the assets, not just one. Either GSK thinks the others have no value and will simply let them lie fallow or they have two options - develop them or dispose of them. From my perspective there is value in 737 and if GSK don't intend to put it back into the clinic then I'd certainly be in favour of SAR making a bid to acquire it. Given what Dilly achieved with Momo then its a good business model for SAR to explore (taking something someone doesn't want and demonstrate that it has commercial value). At present I'm not convinced that GSK will take 737 forward but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. On this basis I'm not expecting news about 737 for a while yet, probably not before September (I'll give the GSK team 3 months to decide what to do with it).
In the meantime, all eyes on 1801 where I expect news this month simply because that's what the team should be focused on. We've missed the boat on Covid but as this was never the main play I'm unconcerned and the little distraction this provoked did in fact provide another avenue of opportunity (URI's) that widens the attractiveness of TYK2 and thereby reduces the risk factor (if only slightly) when a licencee or partner considers the potential of 1801. What concerns me is that SAR and 1801/2 have been around too long and the process of getting them into the clinic has been pedestrian. The science may be robust but we need commercial nous to get us noticed and on the radar of potential acquirers. To this end I'd like to see the BoD getting more proactive because I have a suspicion that the potential acquirers (we know they are talking to people) will either lose interest or wait for compelling evidence that 1801/2 works which means that the 'licence at pre-clinical or shortly thereafter' business model is broken. In particular I'd like to see incentives to get deals done, some new initiatives on the PR front and even a change to executive and non-exec responsibilities. In other words we need a shake up that will underpin the forthcoming CTA otherwise it will be just another RNS confirming what we already know which the market will price in as 'business as usual' therefore no change. I know that all sounds a bit downbeat but the BoD need to show a bit of leg in my opinion otherwise we will be overlooked. GLA
Good afternoon RMM, I trust you keeping well. Just wondering whether you would share your current thinking with regard to near term expectations in light of the GSK/Sierra deal having been concluded. In particular also your current thoughts relating to partnering around the CTA and input from experts/consultants. It’s been a very long journey and your balanced and sober input has helped steady the ship on many occasions for which I thank you.