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Insurance year to 31st Jan 21 was split £70m half one and £64.6m half two
Half one 2022 was £69m
The drop in H2 i seem to recolect was documented in one of their reports as lower travel and the sale of Bennetts .
Bennetts has worked through and travel insurance should be better in H2 - reserve releases are the unknown but comfortable with £69m in H2
Olmsey one to decide less support to Tour (BB) or more (L) ?
Good debate gents. A mix of the incremental revenue point (BB) and weaker insurance(L) gets my vote. Roll on tomorrow!!
BB
Yes, I am invested.
The difference between your original figure of £46m and mine of £10-15m is essentially that mine includes £20m+ of costs for cruise central costs/depreciation/finance costs in H2 whereas yours don't, I believe, and I have assumed a lower insurance profit plus higher tour loss, combined £10m, in H2. That is essentially the £30-35m difference between our figures.
As you say, we will see what Saga has to say tomorrow. I would be very, very pleasantly surprised if PBT is £30m but not at all disappointed if it is just £10m.
Lucre.
I am comparing half 1 small profit with half 2 which will be ?
All of your three items finance cost / depreciation and central overheads went through H1 and we still more or less broke even!!!
The debate is the incremental revenue and costs of sailing including advertising will it shift the numbers on a comparable basis by £11-£15m as you suggest or more as I reckon. I need Tour rebates to reduce to get to my £30m midpoint and more. Roll on tomorrow !!!
Hi Lucretuis
The wording on Slide 14 are ambiguous and there was no intent to mislead. Having reviewed this several times and proved the point backward to £40m through number of days x capacity x 999 passengers x per diems. I concur with you the modelled values are £275 per ticket and 85%. Great spot, if you are an investor it would be good to have you on board helping with analysis.
We can agree to disagree of PBT and EBIT&D. There are different ways of presenting this and in my line items (taken from interim PowerPoint) interest and central overheads are separate.
My predications and I stand by them are
- Circa 81% capacity booked for 2022 cruises which compares to 61% same update two years ago pre pandemic
- Half two profit you say £10-15m. This implies the impact of cruise operating and lower Tour support visa vs. H1 is just £11m -£16m. Take your point on just a guess and my £46m might be optimistic. Mid-point on our two guesses is £30m. I think that will be cleared but tomorrow will reveal
- No ship repayments so cash should grow considerably particularly as they book receipts two months in advance of sailing so Feb and March. So minimum of £185m could be up to £200m.
I hope you are invested as this will rise and good to have someone on this Board who may challenge / validate my excesses!!
Also good to see you at the York Station party
A suitably contrite Banbury Boy
Banburyboy
Yes, please look at slide 14 of the 4/11/2019 presentation, carefully. Slide 14 and note 1 very clearly show the occupancy figure of 80.2% relates to the OLD cruise ships. Slide 14 and note 2 very clearly show the per diem of £235 for the new cruise ship is based on the booked per diems of in excess of £275 for one of the new ships and an occupancy rate of 85% (£275 x 85%=£233.75=£235, slightly rounded up).
You have estimated that the H2 PBT will"conservatively" be £46m. You have arrived at that figure by taking the adjusted PBT of £1m in H1, added back the cruise loss of £35m, added in your estimate of H2 cruise PBT of £40m and then deducted £30m of additional costs (actually £33m, £20m in additional overheads and £13m in additional cruise costs) that were guided to at the H1 stage. Precisely where in that calculation have you taken into account: cruise ship depreciation, cruise ship finance costs and cruise ship central overheads, all shown illustratively on slide 18 of the 4/11/2019 presentation?
Your figures also ignore the fact that tour loses were guided to be slightly higher in H2 and that the insurance profits are usually seasonally lower in H2 . Ignoring these points and using your method, PBT in H1, ignoring cruises , was £36m. From this can be deducted the £20m of additional overheads to give PBT of £16m. Based on the November 2019 presentation, the annual PBT of each cruise ship would be c. £20m at per diems of £275 and an occupancy rate of 85%. That would give £20m for H2 before deducting the additional £13m of costs, which is a PBT of £7m after deducting them. Per diems in H2 will have been higher than £275 but occupancy is likely to have been less than 85%. Also finance costs , cruise central costs and other cruise costs will be higher than shown in the slide deck from November 2019. Who knows whether net, net all this is a plus or minus to the estimate of £7m cruise PBT?
£7m plus £16m= £23m. From this can be deduced the additional losses in H2 for tours and seasonality for insurance. This might be £10m, give or take. perhaps. So my guess, and I emphasis guess, at H2 PBT would be in the range of £10-15m. Anyone can arrive at a different range by using different assumptions.
Hi Lucretuis not much of a vote of confidence.
Slide 14 of 4th November presentation is key
Note 1 model is on 80.2 % capacity (not 85%)
Note 2 per deims were £235.
They were highlighting with 85% and £275 how well discovery bookings were doing . So sorry you are wrong on that.
The difference between EBITA and PBT consists of three items depreciation £8m , finance cost £8 mand central £4m. If you ready post carefully you will know finance and central costs are doubled up elewhere making a half year a full one. I concede you are right on depreciation which I tend to forget as its non cash. So a little slack there. Proof of pudding Thursday
Thanks for your post. BB
There is a flaw in Banburyboy's cruise profit figures. Saga has said each cruise ship (based on the assumptions outlined in 2019) would make EBITDA of £40m a year not PBT of £40m. There was, according to Saga in 2019, £20m of costs (cruise central costs, depreciation, and interest costs) to take off the EBITDA of £40m per ship per year to arrive at PBT per ship per year of £20m. Therefore BB's starting point for cruise ship PBT is twice what it should be. Also the assumption for ship revenue was based on a per diem of £275 and an occupancy rate of 85% not 80%. With H2 additional Covid costs of £13m highlighted by Saga, the starting point for Cruise H2 PBT, based on Saga's assumptions from 2019, should be £7m. Given that mistake, I would be somewhat sceptical about some of his other numbers.
Bb - well done some great info today and I feel very positive that you are close to the mark! Not long to go now and all will become clear and hopefully a good uplift from where we are now!
Perturbed I would probably agree.
In September the Board set out their stall for a "transfomational" half two. With cruising not impacted by Covid all the dots are in place .
They have five years to pay £52m of deffered ship payments from pandemic and were forecasting reading £100m 2024 bond from available cash.
You won't see divys for a while but strong cash generation, debt reduction and £150m plus profit before tax.
Best of all negligible corporation tax which goes up to 35% next year as we are in tonnage tax regime.
Maybe not £6 in 2022 but possible in Jan 23 ?
We’ve had Brexit, Covid and now we are on the brink of war, every time we start to look more positive something negative takes us down, some might say buying opportunities but for me it’s too many false dawns, can’t see £6 this year, sorry