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Thanks Poker,
So when there is another writedown of the insurance the net equity will drop again. How much goodwill is in the books regarding insurance at the moment.
I suspect by May they will have done a sale and leaseback or maybe sold the underwriting business. Or Maybe generated enough cash to pay the bond outright as they currently have £135 to £145 million in cash at the moment.
still dont know which broker changed to hold and took out price target?
The Cruise City of Barcelona has now entered into a State of Emergency as a result of the regions drought and falling levels of water in the reservoirs (16%) ...the cruise ships will now only be supplied with water in case of extreme need.They will have to replenish elsewhere
" The issue in the Markets is how are SAGA paying down the 650M Debt ! "
well first step is in May with paying off the £150m Bond using RdH £85m loan ( at 10% interest) and available cash
They may have found it difficult to have entered into a new Bond, and as such turned to Roger , but it will mean their cash level will obviously drop ..worth checking the coupon the Bond compared to having to pay 10% to Roger
" That business has to be worth at least £1bn enterprise value, so £0.6bn equity."
The Equity on the books in the H1 Report was £294.2m equally £2.07 a share
The Saga brand is a major part of the positive side of the business, i don,t have a figure of value but it is significant
A JV is when you own 50% of a business. Therefore in order to do that they need a valuation for the business. That business has to be worth atleast £1bn enterprise value, so £0.6bn equity.
Hi ZCCAX77
Why would SAGA want to sell the Cruise Business ?
What they said in the trading update is we are exploring potential partners or JV.
The company told us the 2 Cruise Ships will make in excess of 80M pounds EBITDA this year.
They cost 337M pounds each to build and take 3-4 years to build.
The Ships are 5Star Deluxe vessels and demand is extremely high.
Current value of these ships will be in excess of 800M pounds.
The break up value of the SAGA business is HUGE in comparison the the current MC.
The issue in the Markets is how are SAGA paying down the 650M Debt !
I believe we will all find out on April 17th.... Possibly sooner.
Thanks rupans.
Hi Thomson,
The reason for the recent fall especially Friday is the fact that 1 of the 3 analysts has stopped setting a price target on Saga and moved to hold. If anyone has more details it would be greatfully received. I know that Peel Hunt has a price target of 145p (Hold) and Numis has reiterated a price target of 200p. Not sure about the one that has stopped placing targets.
Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/insurance/lse-saga/saga-shares/valuation
Fairly gloomy bot generated overview. Probably doesn't really account for the blend of travel and insurance, as its written as an insurance sector. Predicting a smaller loss and return to profit 2025 ish.
How much do you think we will get for selling this business?
Good post Thomson, now please stop this “good news is coming” unless you KNOW something is in the pipeline. Thanks
Where is Banbury?
Buglet11. As far as I am concerned the latest update Was good news. At the time most investors were very reassured although obviously not so much with insurance. I cannot explain the massive drop in share price since the update but clearly that drop is not good news. In my opinion there has been lots of good news announced since my good news is coming remarks although I totally except there has not been the expected increase in the sp. Hopefully there will be an announcement soon and things will settle down.
Hey.
Hope you're well man?
Long time no speak. Had enough of the AIM sheet yet? Have a catch up on the detail here.
As you predicted Insurance fkkd. Cruise up. Debt a problem still.
SIngleton UAE investor 10m shares since October..
Have a look-you know how I like goodwill write offs?!!!
Speak soon.
what's the difference between good results and bad results ?
bad results, share price crashes , week after results , share price is s**t
good results, share price goes down slowly, week after results, share price is s**t
maybe someday these will actually go up ?? had for years and the heading sums up saga's share performance.
****ed off but will hold for longer.
Thomson’s good news I presume
It is just being walked down on limited liquidity... I keep buying as we go but in fairness only just got here
You gotta love these “‘positive “ trading updates and sale lease back detail, hope dwindling fast on this one
They are algo trades I think to maintain a target range for the bid/ask, usually a signal of larger orders being worked in the background.
Dunno but its creating a patch of red on my blue watchlist...
Does anybody know what all these purchases of 1 or 2 shares signify?
Hi Bruce , you’re right Sesta Feira is the posh way of saying Friday.
The slang way is SEX which literally translated is FRI
I prefer the slang …. Friday-Sex
Amanhã is tomorrow
No amanhã is friday in portugal