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Hi Rogue,
We have 2 relatively quick cars.
Audi SQ8 and Mercedes E53 AMG
We switched from AVIVA as their price increased 27%
SAGA were 14% cheaper
Let’s hope they are sticking to “Pricing Integrity!”
Plus gaining market share..
Pertubed... you are obsessed with moaning about this stock you threads are all doom... do yourself a favour take your cold feet and go somewhere warmer and more inviting to you. :)
Hope our man in the UAE doesn’t get cold feet and sell out then we would have problems
Cheap is not always the best, maybe OK till you need to make a claim. All SAGA insurances are rated 5 Star by Defaqto. You pays your money and makes your choice.
Alnwick, its funny-They are always way off for me-over 30 years no claims but a fast car. Aviva get the work every year. And look at them? They need to review their algos.
Nice man Billzo, your parents must be proud of you. 🤔
🔔🔚
The usual negativity coming from Billzo I see. Maybe one day he will move on. 🙏
Cheers Alnwick, good news for you on the price!
I’ll believe the central cost savings when we actually see them…..I’ve read about millions in savings over the last few years and they haven’t happened, wooden dollars from central functions to business units etc but maybe it will be different with the new guy!
Hi Billzo,
If you look at the historical RNS you can see the First Half Year Results.
SAGA sold 800,000 new policies in the first half year of 2023 which was 6% less than 2022.
As of 31st July 2023 there were 1,600,000 policies in force which was 5% below 2022.
We were told last week that the average margin per policy had fallen from 69 pounds to 54 pounds.
So a rough estimate of the Insurance GP would be 84M pounds.
Central costs have been reduced by 7.7M with more savings to follow.
SAGA reported in their trading update in January 2023 that they were maintaining "Pricing Integrity"
In other words if a policy or enquiry isn't profitable let it go !
The Motor Insurance market is slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels.
We have tried SAGA for Insurance of our 3 vehicles every year for the last 5 years and they have been expensive.
However we obtained a price last month and SAGA were the best !
We now have Motor , Travel and Health Insurance with SAGA. The service is 1st Class.
Best Wishes
I’ll have a look at the numbers but there is no way that saga have ever sold 4 million new business policies in a year….any year.
The key for me is the policies in force number, which has absolutely dropped over the past few years. In a high inflation period, retention is always affected but with that comes the opportunity to balance the book with new acquisitions as customers churn from other insurers.
You’d want to see strong retention numbers from saga because in theory the 3 year policies should be much stickier…..the devil is in the detail but you have to ask why is retention so bad if customers have a fixed priced during high inflation? Why are they going? Or are those fixed price customers staying and everyone else on one year policies are leaving in droves as the price hikes kick in?
What I’m seeing is a perfect storm of huge rate increases affecting new business and standard one year policies which have to go in to potentially subsidise the 3 year policies that were priced incorrectly because they didn’t account for the inflation issues. The problem is obviously the more of your book that is made up of old 3 year polices, the longer the drag on insurance performance overall, both the broking business and AICL.
Clearly I have no numbers from last year yet to back up that theory but as I’ve said previously, the three year policies sold over the last few years will make the insurance recovery much longer and more painful.
Here’s the kicker though boys…..when I looked through the last 2 years of reports and updates, specifically focused on top and emerging risks….i couldn’t see any mention of inflation as a top risk?! The board and senior leaders have been asleep at the wheel…..hopefully the new guy will sort it out but it’s a long road ahead!
But yeah, when I have time I’ll trawl through the numbers but 3 year policies are just counted as a policy in force for that year and the book has been shrinking every year for the past few years.
Yeah. I'm not saying it hasn't reduced-seems to me to be about 25-30% 2018-2022 (note we have no firm figure for 2023 yet)..
But the latest was they present the numbers has changed so not 100% what the like for like would be-eg 3 yr policy-is that 1 policy or 3 1 for each year etc etc.
Billzo is good at this-what do you think?
In short term market is voting machine and long term weighing machine!
Pretty sure Saga will be weighed properly in due course!
The main reason for the decline is GDPR. They can no longer spam mail old folk into buying their policies.
Well on P44 of the 2018 report the figure of 2488k saga branded plus 293k unbranded=2781k is given. If you go through the reports 2018-2022 there are slight differences in the presentation formats for the policies sold numbers. Some of the figures going into the headline core figure count buildings and contents as 2 policies. Apples with Apples is hard to find.
Where is the 4415 stated?
Apologies typo there, that was 4,415 policies in 2018 and 1,725 policies in 2023.
Many thanks Roguemale1! Good to be here, just watching from the sidelines for now but tempted to buy in soon! But policies sold figures does concern me.
I went through all their annual reports yesterday. For their 2018 annual report it says they sold 4,415 policies in 2023 this was down to 1,725 policies in 2023. PBT in 2018 was 123M from insurance and in 2023 it was 67.7M.
Until they sort out their insurance business they'll struggle to pay off their debt.
Morning Golarge, welcome aboard the good ship SAGA.
"Also if you look year on year the number of policies they're selling, it's more than half what it was back in 2018."
Please can you clarify what figures you are using to make that statement? It doesn't appear to be based upon the Annual Report and accounts for that period....
There seems to be a huge spread on the price right now. About 8p between buy and sell. I was considering jumping back in with my profits from SALT but maybe wait till that spread narrows.
The latest trading update from saga essentially said 'travel is doing great but there's still major challenges with insurance business'. Their insurance business is the only part which actually makes any real profit, so believe this is the reason it's dropping. Also if you look year on year the number of policies they're selling, it's more than half what it was back in 2018. Their insurance business is clearly struggling and they've got huge debt, so it's tough times ahead.
A couple of years ago, when results were FAR worse and transparency going forward was utterly lacking, Saga was trading between 300p and 400p. If I recall correctly the CEO bought £200,000 worth of shares at just under £3.90.
Now, with travel almost fully on track and cruise booming, why all this gloom from the markets?
Insurance has been under pressure over the last couple of years, but all the talk in the media over the last couple of days has been about motor policy prices rocketing.
So why the gloom?
https://sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/saga-says-annual-profit-set-to-more-than-double--15995692.html
Saga says annual profit set to more than double
Saga said on Tuesday that it expects full-year underlying pre-tax profit to more than double on the previous year as it hailed an "outstanding" year for the cruise and travel businesses.
In an update for the period from 1 August 2023 to 29 January 2024, Saga - which specialises in products and services for the over-50s - said it now expects revenue growth of between 10% and 15%.
Ocean Cruise revenue is expected to grow by around 30% year-on-year, it said, delivered through a load factor of 87% and per diem of £331, both significantly ahead of the 75% and £318 seen a year earlier.
As a result, and in line with previous guidance, the group expects to exceed its target of £40m Ocean Cruise trading EBITDA per ship.
Meanwhile, the river cruise segment is expected to return to underlying profit, supported by a load factor of 85% and a per diem of £285. This equates to revenue of around £44m and 17,000 passengers, up from £29m and 12,000 a year earlier.
Travel revenue growth is expected to be between 40% and 45%, with 58,000 passengers, up more than 20% on the prior year. In line with previous guidance, travel - when combined with the river cruise business for consistency with previous reporting - is on track to return to pre-pandemic underlying pre-tax profit, it said.
Chief executive Mike Hazell said: "For 2023/24, Saga remains on track to deliver significant growth in revenue, in addition to an underlying profit more than double that of the prior year, exceeding our previous guidance.
"Our cruise and travel businesses have had an outstanding year, having taken around 120k passengers on holiday, with customers continuing to be drawn to the strength of the Saga brand and offer. As a result, these businesses will return to profitability, in line with expectations. In insurance, the market-wide inflationary environment and declining policy volumes are continuing to impact our performance.
"The year ahead will see a continuation of these trends across our business. Bookings for the new seasons in cruise and travel are robust, showing good overall progress."
Saga confirmed at the end of last week that it was considering options for its cruse business, including a partnership arrangement.
...
Volumes aren't huge and we closed right on the last support, If we don't get a bounce tomorrow then it is highly likely that we'll head down again to 107 ish. That's my view anyhow. As for the selling I think the market is expecting another impairment in March, the strategy of three year fixed insurance deals is coming back to haunt SAGA it seems as costs in the sector rise. It has not fallen like this for over two years but again the volumes are lite. It's a tough hold as very few people selling will realise a profit from it. Hoping for some better days here thou once the knee jerk is over.
This is horrendous, can we stay above £1 this week ?
OK, thanks, I will try to be happy when it rises as no doubt, it soon will. However, I have to voice my concern when the price falls over 25% in a week. I agree with Bill, insurance is a disaster, but I feel the fall is overdone and we are due a correction back to 135 ish soon. After that, it’s down to any good deals that can be made on cruise, or less likely insurance. Anyway, good luck to all of us.
Buglet, I'm merely pointing out that your strategy as previously regaled, is sell some when they are higher and buy back lower. No issue with that.
But as previous I am just saying that the only time you post is after big drops, and always negatively. You never post positively when it rises....or indeed any personal opinions on why it might be going up or down. Just that there must be some secret bad news. Neither you or I have any influence on how this moves so may as well lighten up a bit? But good luck anyway. No issue with you making money long or short.