We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Billzo you were obviously unhappy at 1704 Saturday? Football results not to your liking? :)
Where we are now due to historic goodwill being unwound (I assume it was loaded up to make the IPO juicy?), the ship debt and the unknown on insurance returns.
Next month we will know what that looks like and at some point we may have the debt position improved by a leaseback/whatever or we may not. Even if we do that will affect EBITDa but at least then there is a this is what it looks like now position and then you will have to make your mind up where it could get to when insurance recovers, travel steadies and costs are under control? I am relatively lucky to have an average below 2 so I think I'll get back and when it goes there I will see how I feel. Billzo you're about the same price? WRT Roger acting as a bank I thought when that was announced the view overall was that it wasn't any more expensive than the banks? And as for Babu being able to hoover up cheap shares, if indeed he still is, so could we if we were so inclined? Volumes low until results I think. As for the 6 quid which I know winds you up, I'll say I don't know now until results, market cap low due to the above so clear that lot and it will be well north of where are now which in any event would probably be enough for most on here, not that there are that many now compared to the 2020 covid recovery share club. Like exams, in a few weeks time it will be all over!
Do you have view on what good might look like?
Batfasted,
main reason is very low volume can swing this share plus they need to refinance and not use rogers money.
If they did a sale and leaseback on their cruise ships things would look a lot better on the balance sheet.
Because back then, insurance was still seen to be a cash cow and was generating decent revenue and profits with travel expected to come back to profitability post pandemic.
We now know the insurance business is in dire straits and the group is reliant on Roger bailing it out as it’s been built on a debt mountain.
Previous directors didn’t control costs which have spiralled out of control over the past few years so yeah, the business is probably in a worse position now than it was a few years ago.
Hopefully the new CEO will sort the mess out and the travel partnership talk is interesting but the days of talking about £6 a share are long gone.
What is going on with this share? The BOD issue some vague reference to possible partnership agreements but we don’t know any more because they can’t reveal any details at this stage. So shareholders like us are kept in the dark while others like the man from the UAE are buying cheap shares.
How can this share be worth less now than at the depths of the pandemic before the 15:1 consolidation? Something is wrong and small shareholders should be given an explanation.
Luckyin
In the H1 Report ..p24
https://corporate.saga.co.uk/media/krtft4dd/saga-plc-2023-24-interim-results-statement-vf.pdf
Late surge on tiny volume. This is just such a volatile share
Open annual report.
Word search "Reserves"?
Wild stab in the dark.....
Presuming that underwriting a diversity of risks requires reserves to be placed to one side, as policies underwritten today, may not be settled for years. The reserves needed, could either be understimated or overestimated to ensure payouts.
Where do I find total Saga reserves available and the amount used made of these reserves in last few years.
Help appreciated.
Appreciate the clarification 👍🏻 have a great weekend
Hi Billzo,
The Net Debt figure was £711.7M in January 23
The Net Debt figure was £657.4M in September 23
The Net Debt figure will have increased slightly as stated in Januarys Trading update as cash was in the range £135-145M
Net Debt will remain in the £600M’s but remember the company is now generating positive cash !
I would expect Net Debt to be sub £600M by Jan 25
Happy Weekend
I have the net debt figure at £711m…..appreciate it’s obvious but that includes the available cash, which is essentially the bond payment……so the debt figure will remain at £711m after the bond is paid if they use all available cash which they won’t as they’ll be using more credit from Roger…..so the net debt position might increase?
In last years Annual Report Ship Debt was 469.2M pounds.
Total Net Debt was 657.4M pounds.
150M Bond will be paid in May 2024 from a combination of Cash and loan from RDH.
Current value of the 2 Cruise ships is ?? My guess 800M pounds
These 2 Ships will make 80M+ pounds EBITDA
However the Interest , Taxes , Depreciation and Amortisation will be close to 50M pounds
So the net profit of the 2 Cruise ships will be closer to 35M pounds
Happy Weekend
The market value is now based largely on what it is to commission similar ships. This will be most important in any sale or leaseback deal. Intrinsic value has increased significantly and when added to the load factor makes them very desirable!
Thanks Bilizo, do you know how much debt they have tied up in the ships?
Lol, doesn’t sound too bad!
You could sell your house and live on a saga ship for the rest of your days. lol
Jokes aside I guess my point is if you sell the ships and lease them back, you can pay off debt but you’d then just be leasing them back. I’m interested to see what deal they’re looking to sort and how that helps long suffering share holders
Completely understand that, I still don’t know how that helps. My house is worth more than I bought it for, if I sell it I’ll still need somewhere to live 🤷🏼♂️
I think he is saying that they may be worth more today than when they were built.
It probably would, I’m not sure how that helps Saga, unless I’m missing something?
To replace those ships would probably cost 1 billion today!
Purchased with credit
Does anyone know if saga owns their two cruise ships outright? Or did they purchase them with credit?
I'm just trying to work out if they did sell or loan their ships what would their balance sheet look like? Would their debt reduce heavily?
"AVIVA ... their price increased 27%, SAGA were 14% cheaper"
Well reflected in the share prices.
Hi Alnwick,
Well I don't know how they quote then! GR4, lowest postcode. Aviva did try it on so I just went back n via Confused. Job done.
Oh and Aspers my old fruit-also Defacto 5* also! They should do a shareholder discount...