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My point was if you didn’t sold before 22Feb you may hold this for long term. But no one 100% sure this will go very well in long term. I agree with you that saga is a good company and RDH will help saga success again. But, what if this covid thing getting worse after this summer? All travels stop again? That will be another RI or takeover by someone very cheap.
Anyway, we need you here. We need different view on this board. Of course I wish saga sp keep going up from now as I am really heavy invested here.
Thanks FJ for the clarification, I still feel the picture will be a lot clearer for the vast majority of countries late June but do understand the government putting in formal review dates based on worst case scenario’s for international travel. Suppose we all just need to have some patience and see how things play out!
FJGooner, thanks for reminding me that saga Tours division may still lose money until travel fully restart. But, I am worrying more on what if international cruises delays again as cruises division lost more money than tours.
I have followed your post for long time, I know you have spend a lot of time on saga. It’s really sad you sold your holding before 22Feb, but it’s your choice and too early to say you’re wrong. I am holding this since Feb last year, there are so many times I nearly sold my holding as well, it’s really painful to watch sp go up and down then up again down again.
I feel the market is bit silly now, no one really look into a company very deep. So, sp change a lot on any news. That’s why you missed that 30% rise late Feb, because what bojo said on 22Feb wasn’t worth that big rise. So, no one knows what’s next, anything between 200-600p is possible in next few month time.
By the way, ccl up 6% in US and Norwegian up 10% today, hope we will have a good day tomorrow.
"While the watchlist will warn travellers of potential changes in advance, the government will not hesitate to act immediately should the data show that countries risk ratings have changed.
The allocation of countries will be kept under review and respond to emerging evidence, with a particular focus on variants of concern.
Restrictions will be formally reviewed on 28 June 2021 to take account of the domestic and international health picture, and to see whether current measures could be rolled back. Further formal reviews will take place at checkpoints no later than 31 July and 1 October 2021."
Banbury.....don't get too annoyed about the Furlough scheme, Saga made a significant amount of their staff redundant, it wasn't so long ago the media reported Saga were now hiring 500 new staff, they know exactly what they are doing. Roll on May 10th and the "Sovereign Test" announcement will hopefully come before that :-)
FJ the roadmap says all restrictions dropped 21st of June and Boris said last night nothing has changed regarding the irreversible roadmap, so Im pretty confident we will see a good recovery by then, IMO can’t see saga under 300 again so would get in now when setanta are still selling.
FJ - tour as opposed to cruise has wrecked this company - Destinology sold for £1 nominal after costing £15m a decade or so ago with a similar exceptional charge in last years accounts. - They did not ring fence tour receipts and used them to fund day to day business (albeit ATOL insured) this cost them £100m in cash flow and meant they needed RDH to ride to the rescue. The accounts clearly evidence this. They seem to not want to Furlough tour staff and tour lost as much as travel last year. Part of that is smoke and mirrors as cruise pays a special shipping related tonnage tax rather than corporation taxes so cruise losses cannot be offset. Great moving forward particualry with corporation tax rising to 35% but not now . The finance team will push as much of the loss into tour as possible . Never the less we should not have a great tour loss the staff should be furloughed …. grrr…… The valuation of Tour has been quoted as £100-£150m and it should do well but with the uncertainty you mention why o why not furlough the staff or even part furlough them as they cant be busy. Grumpy - banbury
Olmsey ive noticed British bulls and agree. When i get my £7 a share that im all in here for i might set up a small pot and follow them. Not brave enough though ! Agree all your points i think i was trying to suggest to CJ that but for travel the insurance arm is £6 a share. Its temporary only but travel is negatively valued on a wind up basis for now. The auditors notes show they strugglef with a valuation so settled on Nil
What about all of the tours that have been contracted for? And river cruises? And resort stays? In territories not given the green light? All of these were originally slated for restart in March/April, then May 17th, now who knows when?
Has anyone got costings on revenue lost in these categories whilst the government fiddles about?
Saga staff will be having to contact each customer affected and try to re-arrange departures or offer refunds.
I'm still very positive on Saga for the future, but it's best not to forget the reality of all of these moving milestones for allowable travel. It's not just ocean cruising that is affected for Saga.
Agree Banbury. But we also have a few short term headwinds as well as no cruises; 1) Markets a bit shaky this week so many stocks are in the red anyway 2) Setanta Selling. This will provide weakness until they are clear (I had Lloyds Bank when the Govt were selling their 25% stake and it wasn't pretty :-( ) 3) British Bulls issuing sell recommendation (and they have an unbelievable knack of call it correctly) 4) No news - this share has a history of drifting on no news rather than staying stable
There are nothing to worry about if you don’t plan to sell saga shares soon. Insurance is keeping good. Cruises will start June as planned for British sea only and there are sold out. Only problem is will international cruises restart from Aug? It’s very possible, still four months away. The reopen stocks always up and down in last one year. So, just wait for next rise and get out if had enough of this game. GLA
Rogue spot on. Insurance has turned the corner margins stabalised and 50% of policies three year fixes. Cj in the finals note 8 auditors acceped historic insurance goodwill of £ 718m with £ 216m headroom to spare. So there fire sale vauation of insurancr i £934m. Thats £6.67 a share. Its only uncertainty on travel holding this back. Im afraid your wrong on insurance its resiliant in a competative environment and made £140m last year
Cj In what respect is the insurance business not great? Care to post some numbers? And when you say "Saga wasnt a great business before Covid", what are you baseing that statement on? Again numbers always helpful.. Cheers
You need to understand that the insurance business isn't great, my estimate of £4.40 to £4.60 is what I expect after the full year results next year. Saga wasn't a great business before covid but it has clearly fallen in price below it's value therefore I think there is room a recovery but I think some people on this board have expectations that are not realistic.
Cj a very modest price. The diference in monthly case flow between cruising and not is £8m. If this is not above your target when we sail i will not only walk the plank but into a shark pool as well. Its confirmation of cruising only that is holding this back imo
More positive news should lead to another drop in the SP. This really is a strange situation. I have never known a share like it. But I just know all will come good. My target price is £4.40 and I am totally convinced we will get there by this time next year.