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For anyone interested here is the comment on British Bulls this morning
"The bulls are in full control. The negative sentiment that led to the last bearish pattern has evaporated. Besides, the signal is suggesting to STAY LONG. It is best to follow the signal and continue to hold this security"
Cheers for that info Gooner.
Things just keep looking brighter.
Share price in 2018 was over 100 in old money and they had about 6% holding then. Eventually went on to hold near 10% i think so above half their holding was bought at over 100p per share in old money (before the 15 to 1 consolidation). My earlier estimate of their average is probably too low. They are definitely losing money by selling even at current price let alone the amount they sold at lower prices. Goid riddance of course as they are acting as a massive drag for the rest of us holders.
Setanta bought most of their holding between 2018 and 2019. Well before the pandemic hit.
Setanta definitely biught shares. I looked into this when they first started to sell. Their average buy price was in mid 40's in old money if my memory is right. would have lowered it due to taking up rights but i think they are selling at a loss. They started off loading when SP was much lower so whilst they are getting somewhere close to average price for them now, a lot of their shares have been sold at a loss. I can only speculate they have made a decision to get out of the sector or similar. DYOR of course.
Gooner glad you are back and a holder again. I think you ,Rogue and slowand steady have been here since my first day.
Searched through the RNSs and cant see Sentana buying in. Looks like they just picked up the rights others did not at £1.80. Nice work if you can get it !
Horse,
You mentioned: "l’m unsure the percentage of travel staff who worked from home pre pandemic but l’d bet moving forward there will be significantly less staff in expensive buildings."
We had almost no staff working from home pre-pandemic - literally a handful.
The new model is now completely the opposite so the cost savings will be enormous as we move forward. Only Enbrook is being retained with all other buildings released to market and FM costs zeroised.
Beach
Good news re 100% being offered in 2022
If the cabins listed are what’s left in jan 2022 then they are off to an absolute flyer. They may of course be drip feeding the availability of cabins but that would be unusual for a cruise line.
Banbury/FJGooner (you stole Tierney!)
Are we maybe at risk of underestimating the knock on value of travel? Travel Insurance bought and data collected to sell other products. There’s many a loaf been bought for 20p and it’s not for the seller to get rich off the loaf?
Also, l’m unsure the percentage of travel staff who worked from home pre pandemic but l’d bet moving forward there will be significantly less staff in expensive buildings.
I think travel may contribute more than l could ever evidence but it’s purely a hunch.
Thanks FJ and Beach
The accounts don't split the costs of cruise and tour so it's combined.
-Cost of sales for the £464m revenue in 2020 was £365m so gross margin of 22%. We know cruise operates at 50% from there presentation so I make that around 11% on Tour. So I book a £5,000 holiday £4,450 goes to the operator.
The gross margin of £99m becomes a net margin of £22m after £77m of UK selling costs (why oh why were ther not furloughed !!!!). So £22m PBT is a net 5%.
£21m of this was lost through finance costs and impairments - bringing us back to the statutory £1m PBT.
Beach we are paying the providers of the service a lot and the 11% margin we make is more or less subsumed by selling costs.
Don't want to be too negative but if someone would buy Tour for a notional £1 we would fly. I hope they are still looking for a buyer.
When I worked at Saga it was within the Travel division. Half of our annual bonus payment was based at company level and half was based at divisional level.
If I recall correctly, during the last 10 years that I was there, the Travel division qualified for its bonus on 7/8 years and missed out on 2/3 years (one of which was due to the eruption of the volcano in Iceland). So travel was making a positive contribution - and hitting the annually mandated profit targets - for the majority of the time.
Just an observation from my experience there and make of that what you will.
Having said that, in the later years, I had the feeling that Travel continued to exist partly for marketing the brand and partly due to its important part in the history of the company. As you rightly point out the margins are rather thin compared to the insurance operation. Staffing levels in travel were also very high in comparison to insurance.
Insurance was always seen as the senior partner - at least during this century. When I first worked there in the mid-1980s, it was still very much Saga Holidays plus other offerings such as the magazine and some insurance services.
If we can avoid volcanoes, pandemics and airlines failing whilst owing money, then travel can operate at a profit every year - the profits may not be as huge as from insurance but every little helps.
So the question may be - is the "every little helps" in the good years sufficient to outweigh the damage done in the bad years?
Horse - 2022 at 100%. See message below.
Hi ****, yeh working on 100% for 2022, we shouldn’t need isolation cabins by then but if it comes to it we will work through that nearer the time. As far as we’ve publicised it’s the first UK cruises that will be 80% but I would predict like you say the rest of possibly 2021 will be at the reduced capacity but nothing confirmed passed the UK cruises yet
I’ve asked the question Horse
Banbury what I don’t understand when it comes to Tour is why it is so loss making?
They are running a tour operator’Titan’ but don’t own planes, hotels, or other fixed assets.
Essentially all they do is have staff to take bookings, do the admin and general other operational stuff.
They book flights through 3rd parties just direct customer could do. They employ ‘Ground Handlers’ in each country, who look after everything abroad and the operation abroad. So effectively if everything stops like it has, where is the big outlay? If that makes sense?
Beach and horse I hope you are both right ?
Some eye watering numbers from the 2020 and 2019 accounts all pre pandemic
2020 – Insurance revenue £304m PBT £131m margin 43%
2020 – Travel revenue £464m PBT £1m ….. margin not a lot
Travel Revenue 80% tour only 20% cruise
2019 – Insurance revenue £350m PBT £192m margin 55%
2019 – Travel revenue £457m PBT £17m …. margin 3.5%
Travel Revenue 79% tour only 21% cruise.
Cruise has some potential to be earning accretive but its relatively small. Tour is 80% of travel and is a I think a dead dog or rather elephant
I must admit to smiling about Millionaire’s recent post copied below the investment potential is because of insurance and in spite of travel.
“Earnings as a result of the unlocking of travel turning losses into profits which will be transformational to the groups finances.
The investment case is quite simple here and no need to overthink it... we are essentially buying future travel earnings in perpetuity at a snip of the actual future value. Few realise this and are thinking far too short term.
I have many friends still working in the city who are starting to wake up to the investment potential here and some have started building v hefty positions now.”
Apologies if this is not what everyone wants to hear but it’s factual. Be good to understand the positive investment case for Tour. We know form there presentations Cruise has potential.
Banbury
Cheers Beachbum and thanks for the confirmation re bookings.
Have you any idea if they’re selling 80 or 100% for 2022?
I’ve emailed to ask but still awaiting a reply from them.
Thanks Beachbum.
... and cheers for the confirmation re sales.
Have you any idea if they’re selling 80 or 100% for 2022 sailings.
I emailed to ask but still awaiting a reply?
Welcome back Horse and congrats on kicking Covid ass! Excellent!
Totally agree. Sagas biggest bookings period is September and October, when the general market is January/February. That falls in very nicely as when more and more countries have caught up by then, confidence returns, and International Cruising especially is good to go.
I predict some caution still by the over 50’s till around July for absolute clarity but know knows, could be wrong in that because, there the most keen to get away. All Cruises will be fully booked come August IMO. GLA
Back to normal now Banbury, fully kicked covid’s ass. Thanks for asking.
Strangely my previous trader mentality has been replaced by the mindset of an investor.
Whereas l used to buy the dips and attempt to sell high (usually badly) I now check in periodically to see how my investments are doing. No worse off either but maybe that tells it’s own story.
Maybe scary moments in life can help focus the mind on what’s important ??
Re forward sales:
As someone who cruises occasionally, the take up for January next year is (in my opinion) very good.
I’m reliably informed (by a cruise specialist) that oldies tend to look at their winter break after they’ve had their summer one. Beach could maybe expand on that?
I’m only 51 but that’s what l tend to do too.
Do we know if it’s 80 or 100% capacity they are selling for 2022? I’d have thought 100% surely?
Don’t call me Shirley!
I further maintain that when Bojo announces lifting on EU travel and yon traffic light thingy, positivity will grow and sp will rise even before the increase in sales that will surely follow.
I believe Punters have gone mad for UK cruises because they feel safer in UK and are extremely confident they will happen, whereas they were and to some extent remain uncertain over other cruises. Once that uncertainty lifts and they realise how **** Greenock actually is, they’ll be booking a proper cruise!
I can just hear them now - “There’s nothing in Invergordon Harry, this was your idea, my ****tail umbrella has flown away and those hailstones are bloody horizontal, you’re an ******** Harry!!”
Hi Horse good to see you back after the spell on the sidelines hope the recovery is going well.
Agree short term booking are looking very good but long term at the risk of being a pariah on my favorite board I was a bit underwhelmed particularly by January 22 both sales over the last month and overall capacity levels.
I have been tracking since 4th April
• The 6th Jan cruise had 249 cabins available on 4th April, 212 on 28th April and 205 today. So 48.7% occupancy on the 80% made available.
• The 21 Jan cruise 109 cabins on 4th April, spookily 109 on 28th and 93 tonight. 77% occupancy on the 80% made available
• The 5th Jan cruise at 83 nights is a deal breaker and represents one sixth of the total cruise income for the year. 4th April 210, 28th April 204 available and tonight 203 available. Occupancy on 80% maximum 49%.
Based on the full ship capacity of 998 passengers three cruises are at 39%, 61% and 39%. Is that good? I’m not convinced.
In addition, I had a conversation with Beachburn and he noticed like me the cabin availability can go up. The inference is they are drip feeding availability. If true, the analysis is rendered meaningless but the position most likely poorer that we believe.
On a more positive note nothing to say booking won’t fly when we have the definitive announcement on cruising and its safety.
Setanta will soon be gone.
CEO buying shares.
June, July and August almost completely sold out.
PPPN destroying targets and that’s before any extras.
Covid stats improving all over Europe.
....... and as for the future:
Go into Saga Cruises and check the availability for the three cruises in Jan 2022, especially the 83 night one.
Look at the prices they’re achieving....... and again that’s without selling extras.
As l said, all good ??