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Really recommend all investors read that Arden research report. Obviously take all their forecasts with a pinch of salt but the details of the Uskmouth project is intriguing. For instance, the fuel cost is expected to just be £4/MT (incredibly low due to being paid gate fees to take the waste, and compares to coal at £70/MT), and 900,000 MT/yr 20 year agreement is already in place with N+P. For N+P to make this amount of pellets, they are building 4 new pellet sites around the UK, and data shows the UK has more than enough plastic waste to provide the raw materials to manufacture the pellets needed.
Matt and tones. Excellent posts. Thank you.
But when is the target price date ?
Based on profits of £70mln per annum from Uksmouth and their assets and other revenue generation i would think the .arket value of SAE would be much greater than circa £375mln in 3 years.
Arden Partners did an initiation report dated July 17th that you can all download and read from their research portal (just need to register).
Snippet from the front page:
- Arden expect Uskmouth financial close by Jan 2021.
- Following commencement of operations on the first 110MW generating unit and operating for a steady-state 12-month period, (which we expect in 2023), we forecast Uskmouth Power Station to generate revenue (including ROCs) of £49.9m and EBITDA of £34.0m. Operating at an expanded 220MW of generation, again on steady-state 12-month basis (which we expect in 2025), we forecast Uskmouth Power Station to generate revenue (including ROCs) of £103.3m and EBITDA of £70.1m.
It's a 66 page report so will go through it in more detail. Their target price is 77p FYI.
220Mw conversion, lets say ~£60m profit from 1 power station. This blue printed conversion can be rollout out across 000s of coal fired power stations worldwide. Potential upside is mind boggling
Correct me if I am wrong but that article assumes £34mln profit from exporting energy from just the first 110mw conversion. The full 220Mw conversion will be double that?
So £68mln in profits per annum plus profits from tidal power MeyGen project within 2 - 3 years when considering full conversion.
Anyone care to estimate an MCap based on those figures 3 years down the line ?
Here is the article
SMALL CAP IDEAS: Simec Atlantis offers solution for renewables https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-8541023/SMALL-CAP-IDEAS-Simec-Atlantis-offers-solution-renewables.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead
Not a calculation it was in an article posted on here recently. Last week I think.
Had read it previously but someone kindly reposted.
I've noticed you posting a lot of positive comments here Bananaman2. Can you share your calculations for that £34m profit per annum?
Let's be honest, AIM is a market of sentiment, potential and IP. Valuations are simply based on this.
In respect of potential, SIMEC is one that has huge amounts.
Disagree with your post MMgames, many companies have substantial rises in SP without making a profit. I would say that many sustained rises have been achieved on sheer potential and estimated future earnings.
Profit not revenue from Uksmouth is predicted at £34m per annum
Meygem also generating revenues.
250Mw per annum operational target by 2021 although due to splitting Uksmouth into 2 x 110Mw conversion projects maybe push this back to 2022 whilst revenue from the first 110Mw conversion will be sooner.
1000Mw or 1Gw of projects at various stages.
Cicra £60m MCap.
Financial close and award of EPC for Uksmouth will be 'transformational'
I suggest watching last week proactive investor interview posted in here for highlights.
Define take off! This could easily double with the current rise and the signing of the epc contract
The company just did a placing to raise funds. This wont take off till 2021, read latest Rnss go back it is all on there about delayed until 2021.
Is this company close to profits ? Looks interesting but a lot of placings ? What’s the revenue and profit forecast ?