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wind your neck in douggie. You got it totally wrong, plain and simple and just dont like to be told.
"I have no interest in debating BT either,"
I'm quite interested in RYA, but I've said what i wanted to say, and personallyfi I don't see where the enthusiasm comes from. I'll bid you all adieu for now, but I'm looking forward to scrutinising RYA's Full Year when they come out on the 17th May.
I have no interest in debating BT either,
I've looked at it and dismissed it.
May be the metrics look better at some future date,
Not one for me for the foreseeable.
RYA is over 100% Up from the 2020 low,
I've given a couple of reasons for the market's enthusiasm.
As mentioned a lot depends on whether the pandemic becomes endemic
And airline travel resumes unencumbered, or somewhere very near.
We all have opinions, however it is the value the market ascribes to the
Company that counts- everything else is just noise and little else.
As usual from the novice - lots of insults but no facts.
Am not interested in debating my thoughts on BT with you. Im not invested so i dont care, i fail to see why you are so interested in just rya on a similar basis - go preach on about Iag or Ezj or Wizz or something..
I do recall Bt being much higher some time back, but again im not invested so i dont care one jot. You obviously do as you ramp them so much, as is your choice but it is boring.
Rather than keep on repeating the same record "why" oh "why" everytime you post, maybe ask yourself "why not" for a change, widen your horizons possibly.
Obviously you swim against the market tide with regards opinion on both Rya (and BT oddly enough) , as you are entitled to do, but im not going to waste my time playing the numbers interpretation game with you for the reasons i have already stated. i.e. the market values RYa highly based on a bigger collective thinking (not just a few negative people) and their accountants clearly know more than you will ever do about the finacial state of play.
"* With respect to BT, near uninvestable unfortunately- arguably a plaything of both governmental and regulatory policy." In your opinion.
RYA "clear European market leader and lowest cost operator."
I keep reading that, but I'm not sure how to interpret it. When I read "market leader" I assume they mean the biggest airline, but clearly in Ryanair's case it must mean something else.
Since the pandemic has fritzed everything up, I'll look at the 2019/20 figures for RYA and IAG:
From RYA's FY20 report
Revenue 2019 €7.69bn 2020 €8.49bn
Profit after tax 2019 €885m 2020 €1,002m
From IAG's FY 2019 report
"Our results showed a 5.7 per cent decline in our operating profits to €3.3 billion, which came despite our revenues climbing
to €25.5 billion."
So Ryanair generates a third of the revenue of IAG and a third of the Net Profit, so I assume RYA is a third of the size of IAG. It actually surprised me to read that, as I've been conditioned to believe that RYA was the biggest airline. Obviously the term is used loosely in RYA's case and makes the comparison against the individual components of other Airlines.
Since RYA has cut costs to the bone, there's an argument that other Airlines have more cost cutting potential.
As for BT
You didn't mention of the £1 BIllion annual increase in profit from 2023, £2 Billion increase from 2025
Ofcom due to publish the Wholesale Fixed Telecoms Market Review, likely positive for BT
Pension review due soon, but Deficit reduced, as reported in last years annual report, and "Pension Teach in".
"Group IAS 19 deficit fell to £1.1bn at 31 March 2020"
Once the FTTP and 5G rollouts are completed, and the exchange closures start, BT will just tick away generating cash with few overheads, unlike Airlines that have high overheads and are at the mercy of oil prices. Both BT and RYA have competition, so that's something that affects both equally.
I remember BT at £13:40p in 2000, I nearly had kitten when it dropping to £ 11 . In 24 hrs at the start of the Technology crash .
I was in Aberdeen technology fund at the time . :((
* clear European market leader and lowest cost operator.
737 Max is the next stage forward to further enhancing cost advantage.
Whether the share price more than allows for this is a different calculation.
Medium term a lot depends on whether Covid-19 becomes endemic
(rather than a pandemic) allowing the return of uninterrupted Europe wide
* With respect to BT, near uninvestable unfortunately- arguably a plaything of
both governmental and regulatory policy.
That's before you attempt to factor in the extraordinary pension issue.
And I dont mind investing against trend, however BT just looks a world of
Unnecessary Pain imv. Hopefully many PI's there were astute enough to
Exit in the early stages of the huge multi year SP decline.
"Tis beginning to sound like a very boring broken record."
Obviously you only enjoy broken records that play a tune you like.
If you can find any mistakes in the figures I've posted, then I'll happily hold my hands up and check it out. Ryanair isn't at risk of going bust, and I've never implied that in any of my posts, but they will come out this Pandemic significantly poorer. The cash from the €400 million rights issue appears to be burnt, on top of other cash reserves. They will likely burn through another Billion Euro's in the last quarter, up to April 2021, not including the £600 million CCFF repayment in March. There will be some cash coming in from advanced bookings, which will probably cause a slight improvement to the figures, then there's the €850m bond maturing in June. This is only a rough guess, but RYA's cash reserves could drop from the €4.5 Billion, reported on the 30th Oct 2020, to €1 Billion by the end of September this year. Here's how I came up with the figure:
(last reported cash balance) - (assumed cash burn per quarter) - CCFF - (June bond maturing) =
€3.5 Billion - €1 Billion - £600 Million - €850 Million = €1 Billion (approximately)
It could be above or below that, dependant on various factors like resumption of international travel, advanced bookings, etc, etc.
I'm looking forward to reading your opinion that BT is overvalued, on the BT forum, Day; No doubt we can have a good debate on the subject.
Spot on FP, the market concensous is its worth what it currently is, and based on a whole lot more opinions than the one or two struggling to decide 'why'.
Tis beginning to sound like a very boring broken record.
Quite 'why' certain people seem to think the market concensous is wrong is beyond me, clearly a bit of wishful thinking, for whatever personal reason.
Have no interest whatsoever in overvalued BT, im not invested there. But so pleased to hear i have your permission to post only "accurately" there, didnt realise it was upto you to be honest, must have missed that in lse t&c's.
"the market could not care less what you or anyone else thinks."
Lets see where the market is in the next couple of years, I'm willing to bet that a big rotation occurs, and fundamentals become fashionable again. The market works in cycles, the current one is getting tired in my opinion. We'll probably see one last leg up, in the US, as Biden's $1400 stimulus cheques find their way into stocks, and that will probably signal the the move from growth into value stocks.
You can battle to understand 'why' all you like,
the market could not care less what you or anyone else thinks.
Tricky one there fleecy , think you had a bit too much detail there . You know figures and stuff . . :)
"well try sticking to your overly confident ramping of "undervalued" BT and telecoms stocks on the Bt bb then, given you are actually finacially invested there. Im not so sure they are "undervalued" but i dont keep carping on over there about it."
Doesn't matter to me if you post on the BT forum, as long as you post accurate information.
BT's reported revenue for 2019/20 was £22.905 Billion, with a reported EBITDA of £7.907 Billion, and normalised free cash flow of £2.011 Billion, not bad considering they're in the midst of 5G and FTTP upgrades. BT will be seeing an increase in profit of £2 Billion from 2025, due to a cost saving program
RYA's revenue was €7.6 Billion, with a net profit of €1 Billion in the FY20 Results, far below BT's figures.
OK BT has more debt, and Pension obligations, but they're easily manageable. BT have operational costs around upgrades, but RYA is also investing in new aircraft, which will cost.
BT expects full-year adjusted profit of between £7.3 to £7.5 billion in the 2020/21 FY results, whereas RYA is guaranteed to make a significant loss.
BT currently has a market cap of £12.61451 Billion (around €14 Billion) , whereas RY has a market cap of €16.42783 Billion, which one is overvalued based on the figures? How the market values Ryanair above BT in the middle of a Pandemic is a mystery to me, and possibly most others too.
I say again you're welcome to post on the BT page, as long as the information is accurate. As I've said previously, I'm interested in Airlines due to the Pandemic, especially Ryanair as it seems to be highly valued, and I'm battling to understand why.
Next week will be excellent for all Airline's with the news of all restrictions to be lifted in early June .
Sage would be in his element if he were here , DT let's have a whip round and get his internet 're connected:)
well try sticking to your overly confident ramping of "undervalued" BT and telecoms stocks on the Bt bb then, given you are actually finacially invested there. Im not so sure they are "undervalued" but i dont keep carping on over there about it.
We all get your opinion here, quite entitled to it of course, but the same old same old is getting a little boring and repetative.
The people who know rya's financial position best and accurately are their accountants, nobody else.
"That's because I fail to anything, but speculative positivity around any of the Airline stocks"
Missed out see. I meant
That's because I fail to see anything, but speculative positivity around any of the Airline stocks
"particularly when only ever displaying a negative slant."
That's because I fail to anything, but speculative positivity around any of the Airline stocks. In my opinion the Pandemic has dumped them all in the toilet. The only reason I can think of, driving the outperformance of RYA, is certain interested big players. The fundamentals, and short term outlook, would indicate that RYA should be much lower than the current price.
Every business in the world uses various often differing forms of accounting practise, and i wouldnt ever dream to suggest i am as competant (or shady either) as any of the highly paid experts in that particular field. I would suggest unless equally qualified and expereinced then its likely mere unquallified members of joe public will, whilst attempting to grab the branch of understanding simply end up with a handful of twigs and leaves. Second guessing is such a waste of time.
I'll leave the running of the business to the experts in the know, not a bunch of ameteurs trying to second guess from the limited information they have availible, particularly when only ever displaying a negative slant.. I shall just concentrate on the share price which (apart from having the most successfull ceo in the business on board) is all im really interested in - and is clearly working out very very well.
"Possible that there may have been some debt/bond repayment in the period ."
Not according to the H1 Sep 30, or Q3 statements.
"This ensures that the Group is well financed to deal with the Covid-19 crisis and removes refinancing risk as
it prepares to repay maturing debt over the coming year (CCFF £600m in Mar. & €850m bond in Jun. 2021)."
"Following its successful fund raising (€400m share placing & €850m eurobond) in Sept., the Group is well financed as it
takes delivery of its first B737-8200 aircraft in Q4 and plans to repay over €1.5bn maturing debt in the next 6-months (incl. CCFF £600m in Mar. & €850m bond in Jun. 2021)."
It's possible that RYA have put aside £600m to repay the CCFF in March, although I couldn't find any reference to it in the Q3 statement, and £600m plus €306m would add up to around a Billion Euro's. I have to assume that the Billion Euro cash burn doesn't include the £600m CCFF repayment, unless someone can show me what I'm missing?
Possible that there may have been some debt/bond repayment in the period .