Paul Johnson & Oliver Friesen from Power Metal presented at London South East's September Webinar. Watch the full presentation here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well done lads ..it still amazes me to where they put all that fuel.:).
Nice Jonbri. With you on your predictions,I'm having a decent run with ,IAG, and EZJ, ...+ Vmuk. Going great guns not a bad one to be in atm ..poss rate rises etc,
"I am also very motivated being involved in the next generation of aircraft which will use clean power and advanced structural materials."
Like Hydrogen fuelled Aircraft, and new technologies like carbon nano-tube film, to use in the curing process for bonding composite materials in Aircraft wings and fuselages?
Q. I am very fortunate that the consulting I perform now on advanced aircraft design with the tools available today means I can be located anywhere in the world. I only do a few hours a week now as I want for nothing and enough is enough.
I am also very motivated being involved in the next generation of aircraft which will use clean power and advanced structural materials.
I am also quite certain airline stocks will rise in value in the next 12 months.
Its a hard life you lead jonbri,..You'll be telling us all your 'getting paid 'next...
Just a follow up to my trip back to the Canaries yesterday. Top marks (never happened before) to Ryanair. The aircraft actually left the ground spot on departure time and I was in my place at 19-30 which included a 40 minute car trip. The aircraft carried 143 PAX. Tenerife airport was the busiest I have seen since pre virus days and it was good to see. The only form the Spanish border control wanted to see was the QN locator one. The two vaccine cert was not asked for. Of course it is required to be checked by the airline before boarding.
I know better times are amongst us and the travel industry will benefit.
Ahh well doug, i suppose your just a bit miffed cos your advised bs 'Hawaii' trip definately wont be happening this year, my kind offer of tissues might come in handy for you there.
Perhaps hypocritical you can go back to Portugal again?
Excuse me for not taking your historically rubbish tips on board, id sooner ask somebody with a tinchy element of success.
Nah, absolute tosh. Some flights may be full but so many flights have been cancelled it's no surprise that some are full. However, I don't believe Mikey's hype. Colleagues and pilots I know are saying the majority of flights are empty. Most flights are operating at a loss because the price of a flight this summer is cheap as chips. If demand was so high the prices wouldn't be so low. Just go on the website and see for yourselves. Seems Mikey can't give 'em away but has to keep flying popular routes on a skeleton basis or he'll lose the slots to competitors. Once this summer's true figures come out the SP is gonna crash big time and catch a lot of people out. I'd recommend selling and take what money you can before the cack hits the fan.
Doesnt have to be a sad day JB, dont have to be besties to be able to agree on a few facts, alls fair in love and war as the saying goes eh. Glad to hear that Mikeys plane you are probably now on is packed to the gunnels, will help the bottom line figures continue to improve, which even a numbscull hiding under a rock can clearly see are likely to be getting better.
Good to hear the rya investment is nicely up at 55%, genuinely without meaning to **** on your parade, im edging you currently on my investment, having bought at the low 9 euros, but hey up is up so a good result all round, after whats clearly been a very successful investment for both.
A shame the many emotional effected knockers didnt realise that without the additional drag of a divi payment, the sp of mikeys lot was always going into recovery mode faster than others, dont even need to mention the advantages the lower cost business model and business accumen of those in charge adds, nor the increasing cash balance. The SP speaks for itself and will continue to do so no doubt, much to some peoples unhappiness.
"I am at Manchester airport at this very moment waiting to catch the 14-25 Ryanair flight back. I can honestly say it is packed and just like pre virus days."
I don't doubt what you're saying, but it's meaningless if the profit margins are low, or negative. As far as your "Ryanair investment +55% on a big number", well done for getting in at the right time, since successful investing is all about timing. Maybe you're correct in your assumption that RYA will fly higher, maybe you're wrong, but the figures suggest that RYA is already overvalued imo.
I was going to leave it at my last post, but I'll always reply to posts directed at me.
Man that sad day has arrived when I totally agree with DT’s sentiments. fleccy, I am totally mystified why you have chosen this bb amongst the many thousands you could have picked to bore us sh*tless with your obsession with numbers.
Well I had to travel back from the Canaries over the weekend and I am at Manchester airport at this very moment waiting to catch the 14-25 Ryanair flight back. I can honestly say it is packed and just like pre virus days.
Just for the record fleccy my dealing account at this very moment shows my Ryanair investment +55% on a big number, I’ll just have to accept that.
"And for calling people who disagree with you "missguided" - what a pompus a55 you make yourself sound with statements like that."
"RYA may do really well going forward, but investors believing that Covid will wash away the competition, leaving clear skies for Ryanair may be misguided"
I actually wrote "may be misguided", your quote made my post seem much worse than it was. By all means filter me Day, I really don't care lol. All I quoted was figures from RYA's annual report, obviously reading the truth upsets you, and that isn't my fault.
Anyway, I'm done for now. Enjoy the view through your Rose Tinted Spectacles.
No of course not, why would i want to look at figures? I only have an investement portfolio of a shade under £800k and 30 odd years investing experience (wont expand further and mention retiring at 42 - until i became bored, with four houses fully paid for, plenty in the bank, successful business etc).
Im clearly some sort of f*cking dummy, unable to make a sensible decision where numbers are concerned, and need free help from a faceless poster on a bb like you!
And for calling people who disagree with you "missguided" - what a pompus a55 you make yourself sound with statements like that. Exaserbated further with stating those (who has said this?) that "beleive covid will wash away competition".
Id suggest you pay more attention to the markets clear lead and healthly share price, ITS ALL THAT MATTERS IN THE PURSUIT OF A NON DIVIDEND PAYING SHARE, something you seen totally unable to comprehend, even after a few on here have often pointed it out to you.
As a final point before i permamently put you and your simply antagonistic nature in the filter bin to avoid your constant pointless regurgitation of numbers regarding rya, id suggest you take up accountancy, and learn what numbers disclose (or manipulate) correctly - either that or go and annoy the posters over on BT.a, where you are actually invested.
"And equally there nothing to say that it just wont continue upwards to higher highs. Everything else is all just guesswork based an individual perspective."
Day, do you actually look at their figures, and the low margins generated within the Airline industry?
For example, before Covid, Ryanair in FY2020 generated revenue of €8.4948 Billion with operating expenses of €(7.3674) Billion, so it only generated a net profit after tax of €648.7 Million. In the preceding years, RYA actually generated less revenue, but their bottom line profit was better Mar 31(2019 € 885.0 million, 2018 1.4502 Billion, 2017 € 1.3159), It's all in their annual reports. In terms of operating margin (2021 (51)%, 2020 13%, 2019 12%, 2018 23%, 2017 22%). So before Covid, RYA's profit margins were dropping, probably due to competitive pressure.
RYA may do really well going forward, but investors believing that Covid will wash away the competition, leaving clear skies for Ryanair may be misguided, and the new "Gamechanger" Aircraft aren't free, even with a significant discount.
"There's nothing to say that RYA's share price might run out of fuel, since it's flying so high. As I've said previously, there's a massive amount of goodwill priced into RYA, they need to get everything right with a shedload of good luck thrown in"
And equally there nothing to say that it just wont continue upwards to higher highs.
Everything else is all just guesswork based an individual perspective.
The collective market is a far better and unbiased barometer than any single opinion can ever be. And the market has been clearly saying, and still is saying that RYA is doing fine considering.
"Obviously lots of other people like it, low volume just means 'stickyfinger' investors (artifically helped by banning UK repurchases so excluding UK traders)"
Even O Leary, on his own, could have lifted RYA's share price with only €3.5 million worth of trades on a reporting day. There's nothing to say that RYA's share price might run out of fuel, since it's flying so high. As I've said previously, there's a massive amount of goodwill priced into RYA, they need to get everything right with a shedload of good luck thrown in. The markets are schizophrenic at the moment, certain stocks are being elevated, when the fundamentals don't support it, and others get punished for no apparent reason. Today's darlings could easily become tomorrow's dogs.
i find rya a refreshingly interesting stock to watch when it goes from 14.8 to 16.4 in a week, with a clear improving sector outlook. Obviously lots of other people like it, low volume just means 'stickyfinger' investors (artifically helped by banning UK repurchases so excluding UK traders).
Long may it continue.
I find RYA a fascinating stock to watch. I am invested in BT, and until recently BT was underperforming against RYA big time. Feb 26, BT was underperforming RYA by around 43%; BT's closing price was 123.55p, which gave it a Market cap of around £12.25 Billion, whereas RYA's closing price on the same date was €16.54, giving a market cap of over £16 Billion. BT has now caught up and overtaken RYA with a current market cap over £18 Billion.
They are different companies in different sectors, but in terms of Revenue BT's is over £20 Billion, during Covid, with RYA currently taking losses and FY22 likely to be little over €2 Billion. In terms of financial investments, into infrastructure, BT has committed to spend around £15 Billion rolling out FTTP and 5G, which the press make much of, but I hear little of the cost to RYA of buying 200 737 MAX 8's. The list price of the 737 Max 8 is around $121.6 million, so 200 at list price would cost RYA around $24 Billion, but there's likely to be a substantial discount so I'd guess around $12 Billion. Maybe RYA would decide to sell much of their current "unencumbered" fleet to offset the cost of the new aircraft, but it would likely have to be sold at a substantial discount to the current asset value, maybe even bargain basement prices. BT are completely replacing their network, at significant cost, but the Fibre they install now will last much longer than the 737 Max's, have a fraction of the operating/Maintenance costs and doesn't cost much more than RYA's investment into new aircraft, with BT currently generating 10 times the revenue of RYA.
Todays 4% rise needs to be viewed in context. According to the LSE, today's traded volume for RYA is 761,154 with a value of €3,488,903.28. Today BT's traded value was £25,383,782.50, Lloyds £30,912,921.54, Vodafone £63,474,912.26 ( Vodafone are in the midst of share buyback programs, explaining the much higher figure). My point is that RYA may be over 4% higher today, but on the back of sclerotic volumes with a low value of trades, why is that? Are people holding onto the stock, or maybe some other reason, the weekly chart, below shows a tailing off trend, with various large spikes on certain weeks. I'm not here to offend anyone, just interested in other peoples views on such an interesting stock?
Fleccy, when the accrued expenses are paid, the cash balance will decrease and the accrued expenses on the balance sheet will reduce by the same amount. There is no impact to debt when they pay the accrued expenses.
I wouldn't expect the cash balance to reduce to 418 m as large companies will manage their accruals and would not reduce accruals to zero, there will always be an accruals amount on the balance sheet. Fees from airfares and ancilliary revenues will keep the cash sufficiently large to meet day to day operating costs.
The other current asset amount probably would probably not result in cash of 447m being created directly. Inventories are most likely fuel and other assets most likely prepayments.
Hope this helps.
Thanks WM2020. In that case, since the accrued expenses have contributed to the level of cash available at the end of Q1, I assume as those expenses are realised, the cash balance should reduce and possibly Net Debt increase?
They are showing Current accrued expenses and other liabilities of €2.0623 Billion, within Total Current Liabilities of €3.6383 Billion which also includes €863.1 Million in debt maturities. Am I right in thinking, since they report their Total current assets as 4.5031 Billion and Total Current Liabilities of €3.6383 Billion, then if FY22 turns out to be a loss making year the Cash could potentially reduce from €4.0563 Billion to €418 Million, with the other current assets adding a further €446.8 Million? I realise I'm looking at this in an overly simplistic way, but I'm thinking RYA must be praying things normalise soon.
WM2020, I'd be grateful if you could check the above and give your view? I'm not invested in RYA, just interested as they seem to have a lot of goodwill built into their share price.
Fleccy, you're taking a too simplistic approach interpreting the financial statements, hopefully the following will help:
1) Not all items that go thru the p&l are cash items, non cash items e.g. depreciation do not result in amounts leaving the bank account
2) To interpret the cash flow statement you need to look at all line items on the balance sheet, rule of thumb, increase in liabilities has a positive effect on cash, decrease negative; increase in assets has negative effect on cash, decrease positive
3) You correctly identified the large increase in accrued expenses of 788m, these are unpaid and will have to be paid in the future, this had a positive effect on cash
4) They also raised net 284m cash in financing activities (debt raised less paying down debt) which increases the cash balance
5) You can sleep easy they haven't inflated the cash balance, the figures are scrutinised and reviewed before being released to the market
Hope this helps.
Absolutely right both Johns.
Quite clearly Plenty of life left in the old dog yet :)
Doug, let me have your address, will post you a big box of Kleenex to cry into.
"Well fleccy is this the best you can do? Guess what nobody gives a flying f what your interpretation of the accounts".
I was just interested to understand if RYA is showing an inflated cash balance, because of the accrued expenses (liabilities), added to cash balance, which is due in the current financial year. Why did my post upset you John? You could read through the balance sheet yourself and correct me if I've stated anything incorrectly. I haven't said RYA have done anything wrong, it's up to them how they present figures within their results, I've just tried to understand their figures, what's wrong with that?