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- H1 2016 EBITDA £60m vs £59m in 2015
- current ytd LFLs -3.7% and improving from -3.9%.
- soft sales comparatives in H2 from a quick look at last yrs reporting
- bad news out the way now with the impairments and provisioning (mostly non-cash)
- Dividend maintained. decent yield
- v.low net debt
- improved mgmt
- improving economy
I Would expect the valuation get to 8-10x ebitda pretty soon and not sure what the selling is about in the last couple of days. reckon full yr ebitda will be be easily over the £130m mark.
CITI downgrading the stock this morning
Maintain my sell , September will be very messy and the new CEO can secure some nice out of money options as part of his contract .
Good volume in the stock today , further downside expected prior to arrival of new CEO.
Would also expect a very further reaction to the stock going ex divi in mid September .
There will always be M&A talks with this stock , but the new CEO have to make further provisions and replace some of the divisional managers .
Kitchen sink is what we call it .
Sell more ,September will be a tough month for the stock and the sector
You were spot on.
Agree, the kick up was due mainly to no cut in the divi as was expected. Everything else was as expected.
Based on top end of their forecast for year end (£80m pbt) this seems fully priced now IMV on a PE of about 14.
Numbers still bad and more closures and W/O's to take place .
Pubs was good , the rest ....
Relief rally this morning , a couple of funds chasing income on the back of no divi cut .
Would continue to sell and suspect once market makers have been sorted out , price will drift this afternoon ,
I sold a third Thursday just incase but I'm pleased with today's results, dividend maintained and no nasty surprises really like this share hope it does well for everyone
Having sold pre Brexit and bought back in shortly afterwards, I sold up on Thursday am for a 50% profit. I felt it was not worth risking my gains by holding through Friday.
Thanks, good luck to yourself too.
Was going to keep just my profits in here but - if in doubt get out - so I sold up later today.
This was never a long termer for me, just a post Brexit play. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow though.
Would definitely sell more shares today
Divi cut ?
Tricky one , to do this prior to the new CEO's arrival seems unusual .
But agree with you , the U.S. Markets are very nervous now and I believe the market has now exhausted the post Brexit move .
So the food and leisure sector will most likely trade sideways .
Yep, did read the Tempus article. Have come around to your way of thinking tbh and considering reducing today. Made a decent profit here (for a change!) so will bank some.
Don't think there will be any surprises tomorrow but it's all priced in and with the Yankee doodles pontificating who knows which way the market in general will go tomorrow.
You probably noted the cautious comments in yesterday's press , the company is really quite restricted in what can be done until the new CEO arrives next month .
What will be interesting is their pub division LFL numbers
Fair enough, do see your point of view, even if I think your being a tad pessimistic.....being cautious does not mean a profit warning though.
Not long ago you were posting £5, so assume you have had a change of heart, otherwise why reduce!?
Again no offence intended but your posts do seem to send out mixed messages, to the point where the cynic in me would assume that you have already reduced your holding here!.
What I meant is that is we will most likely have the company being more cautious during the Q and A session with the analysts ,divi cut already factored in .I believe we will have a more sober guidance for Q4
The post Brexit / warm weather rally is over .
The key is consumer confidence and I believe the stock /sector have had their run and quite frankly the market was very quick with their upgrades post CEO announcement , an easy call at that time , but our new chap has a lot to do . The M&A premium that the stock is enjoying is not to be ignored , but I would be a seller at these levels and look to buy the stock back 15-20% lower . Good old Mr Page must be astonished in how the company have messed it up .
No offence intended, didn't presume to think that you were not aware of the "in-line" statement just odd though that if you were then why post the statement that "There will be a profit warning".......any reason for posting that?.
They have already stated that they will include in the interims an update on the strategic review so I disagree that it will trade sideways for a while. From last weeks press there has been talk of a dividend cut (no surprise) and looking ahead to the company's strategic review on 26 August, Canaccord said: "We highlight a checklist of actions that investors should expect to read in the review: exit poorly performing sites, continue to develop the brand portfolio, reposition Frankie & Benny's, reduce and re-direct capex, improve digital marketing capability, reduce the overheads, review returns to shareholders including share buybacks."
So, will see how many of these points are addressed on Friday and that IMV will determine the sp movement, not sideways though!.
Good luck though in whatever you do.
With the share price now trading sideways prior to results later this week , I would be inclined to reduce in front of Friday's results .
I am aware of the announcement during closed period , some of the income orientated funds might have offloaded some of their holdings on the back of the upgrades post new CEO.
Remember he does not start yet .
RTN have like the sector enjoyed a strong post Brexit July and August , hence my recommendation back in July .the results will most likely highlight a pending announcement regarding a strategic review of the business and hence I think the share price will trade sideways for a while . Well done on your profit .
Viking1 there will be NO profit warning, from the RNS 12th Aug:
"The business continues to trade in line with previous guidance."
That's why the sp rocketed, wasn't just because of the new CEO.
They are likely to cut the dividend though.
I understand that it will suit the incoming CEO if he is able to rubbish the company's performance to date. His stewardship can then benefit from a low start. However do we actually know if recent performance will be below market expectations.
I am 55% up since buying back in post Brexit, and am wondering what action to take at this point.
I think there will be weak comparatives for aug15 because the weather was pretty grim.
Following the recent rise in the share price
Record July weather
Evidence of strong trading among the restaurant / pub business
I would now start selling the shares prior to new CEO starting and results announcement
There will be a profit warning and that will suit him .
If the stock should retreat suffiencltly prior to results
I would buy
It will be a M&A target
Sold out a few minutes just before noon today and got 431.1p. So, yeah, pleased for differing reasons.
I originally bought in high, the day BEFORE the CEO profit-warning and subsequent price crash. The very day before! Doh!
And with buying costs I was running at 370p-odd. So only a 14% profit after all costs. That's because I've long changed to 'part-buying' my way into a share to avoid precisely what happened to me here. So my initial purchase was only a fraction of my intended holding.
Had originally intended being a long term holder for the divi but the departing CEO made a murky statement point of not ring fencing the divi. (Well he couldn't really; any company in trouble shouldn't ring fence the divi regardless).
If I'd bought in the following days when it crashed well sub 300p I'd still be holding but I reasoned I was too high up the risk scale for my liking. I should think a couple of years (3 to 5) this will hardly warrant a blip on the chart; but I'm out. (For now : )
Missed a few chances to get out with some minimal losses, but the other day messed up when it went into profit in and let the opportunity slide. Didn't feel too bad as charts are extremely positive on this at the moment.
There's just one thing though.
The SP has shot up that quickly and that fast it's now 76 on the RSI indicator. (78 when I sold) So I took profits before it consolidates for the next leg of it's journey.
Over 70 RSI is always a good decider for me when selling at the top.
Feel pretty certain a couple of years should sort out this business after the new CEO frightens the life out of everyone by 'kitchen sinking' to get the best start in his new role. So why not stay a holder if I believe that?
I've got just too many in my portfolio with serious structural problems that will be 'alright in a couple of years'. So this has been one too many for me.
Good luck to all.
For the ones who are still invested here
I suspect last chance to get on board at these prices
New CEO at Restaurant a Group .....
The numbers will be of great interest
But I suspect the new management will kitchen sink the numbers , receiving out of the money options
And might even raise some money .
Still will be very interesting to see how their Pub division is doing .
With Airport tourist traffic in decline post brexit / terror there is still a small positive with regards to the Airport business , " the dwelling effect " passengers arriving even earlier because of increased security and they find themselves spending more time in airports with their families.very much the case post 9/11.a top ten M&A target in my portfolio
That i changed my mind and decided to take my profits here ie 30% and wait and see what happens, good luck all.