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TBTT - I think regardless of reporting practices, the issue of whether or not there were other underlying reasons for the withdrawal of guidance has been disproved. The other uncertainties highlighted, namely the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and ECOWAS sanctions is affecting all Mali-based mining operations (HUM are more exposed than RSG but the share price is doing well).
Guidance has been reinstated albeit with the loss of 15,000 ounces due to the strike action. The company expected this to run longer than the 10 days mentioned previously. The removal and reimplementing of guidance was little more than posturing to get the unions around the table.
Today's update confirms RSG are on track to meet 400,000 ounces minimum this year.
"Resolute Mining Limited is pleased to announce negotiations with the Union Nationale des Travailleurs du Mali (UNTM), the union representing workers at the Company's Syama Gold Mine (Syama) in Mali, have resulted in the signing of a conciliation agreement which confirms the cancellation of further planned strike action at Syama.
A compromise has been achieved between Resolute's subsidiary company in Mali and the UNTM under which a commission will be established to evaluate measures in response to COVID-19 and current economic conditions. The UNTM has agreed to be involved in identifying solutions and has cancelled proposed strike action at Syama.
Following the conciliation agreement operations at Syama have returned to normal and all efforts will be made to ensure a stable industrial relations platform is maintained for the rest of 2020 and beyond. While no guarantee can be provided that the UNTM will not reinstate future strike action, all parties have agreed to the framework of a win-win partnership. The industrial relations dispute and strike actions taken prior to the agreement will result in reduced gold production in the current quarter. The total expected negative impacts on Syama for the September 2020 quarter is a delay in production of approximately 15,000 ounces of gold.
Following the cancellation of further strike action, Resolute has reinstated production guidance for the 12 months to 31 December 2020. Taking into consideration the negative impact of the industrial relations dispute in the current quarter and other uncertainties relating to the potential impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and ECOWAS sanctions, Resolute has provided an updated guidance range based on previous 2020 guidance.
Total production for 2020 is now expected to be within the range of 400,000 ounces to 430,000 ounces of gold at an All-In Sustaining Cost of between US$980 per ounce and US$1,080 per ounce.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Yes, Resolute is indeed cheap, but I think it is cheap for good reasons. Not least, it's long history of deceptive and misleading financial reporting.
I'm not a shorter, and there are a lot of other (gold)fish in the pond, so I'll leave it there.
Hopefully today's news will steady the ship and lead to an appreciation in the share price.
LuckyLuciano - to address your question about hedging, the company state a minimum of 30% of the next 18 months of forecast production has to be hedged to comply with 'funding obligations' ie. covenants on the $300m worth of borrowings on the book.
With regards pricing of forward sold ounces, $1,576/oz to $1,670/oz is much better than the price we were receiving 6 months ago. Obviously it's not ideal we can't sell 100% of production at market prices. Even cash rich producers sell at discount to market pricing (see the latest SLP chairman's statement on PGM sales for proof of that).
With regards their other investments and holdings, I believe these are of insignificant value compared to the $62m cash, $72m due in receivables (balanced with payables) and $175m held inventories. I am not sure which activities you mean that make RSG fall into the investment bank category, can you clarify with sources for this?
As for safety their track record is pretty good and their stringent Covid measures is ironically the reason behind recent strike action. As is evidenced across many countries around the world, including here in the UK there are groups of people who would rather not follow government health advice and go out and protest for no good reason.
Further to my point about the Hot Copper forum, the reason I am confident most people posting about RSG don't have a clue and want the company to fail is due to the long running smear campaign, with defamatory remarks like this being recommended by 10 other posters:
"RSG must be the worst managed mid cap goldie on the ASX."
Hi TBTT, I've been following the HotCopper discussion. Looks like a number of 'bad actors' ripping the management and company. One poster 'kwerk' suggests rewording the sentence to arrive at a meaning opposite to that stated, that workers stood down were not actually on full pay. Other users are also spreading this misinformation as fact. I don't subscribe to their interpretation of the language but certainly it would help clear the air if another statement was issued to provide clarity.
Another poster 'doubledeckerdog' called for shareholders to rise up, rid the company of management but admitted to not holding any shares.
The way guidance was withdrawn is likely attributed to the company's intent to push back on strike action. This could be seen as a tactic to frame those leading the negotiations on behalf of workers in a bad light. Missing guidance is probably not entirely the fault of those striking and RSG may have been a matter of weeks away from confirming such news in the next operational update, however this strike action which is expected to run longer than the 10 day has guaranteed this in any case.
The sp tells the all story.
The management of RSG has been keeping this policy of hedging 1/3 gold production even if gold price has been rising for the last 2 years.....WHY?
Are they selling production to the financial hedge providers?
Call it conspiracy theory but the other side of the coin would be simply to consider the management incompetent and that still is a very good reason to sell this share, as I did last week.
Yes the recent strike is very odd, possibly the more plausible explanation is fear to be permanently left at home. None better than the workers/unions would know what kind of management RSG has.
More over by reading some of RSG financial interest and other holding, investments ect..this company looks more of an investment bank that a gold mining. Call me paranoid buy I don't like a management that focus more on financial activities, rather that running its mine safely and efficiently.
I am encouraged by the CEO buying shares and using his cash! Personally, I'm sitting on my hands. This will sort itself out eventually and at this price, there's not a lot of miners that look better
Don't you find it odd that management were so quick to remove guidance - even before the strike had begun?!?
It makes me think that they have other problems at Syama, and that they are using the strike as cover.
Management at Resolute are unquestionably questionable! Read the Hot Copper board on Resolute if you want some extra "colour"!
I haven't witnessed any incompetence from management, only opportunistic actions led by the unions. Strikes in the mining industry have been commonplace across Africa for years and Mali is no different. Unions called for two strikes in April and December of 2018 at the former Randgold mines, now operated by Barrick. Happened previously in 2016 too. AngloAshanti's formerly owned Sadiola and Yatela mines were affected by strikes back in 2014.
I remember back in 2011 when gold prices reached new highs, unions ordered their members to go on strike. In South Africa more than 100,000 miners went on strike in early autumn.
I'm not sure why the Union is demanding certain Syama workers be reinstated when they are on full pay already but if this is primarily related to the Covid measures taken, then I fail to see how anyone on here can label the management as incompetent. I would hazard a guess all the major producers in Mali are following similar measures to restrict the spread of Covid.
"Resolute has implemented a comprehensive, company-wide response to the coronavirus pandemic. This response prioritises the health, safety and well-being of Resolute employees, contractors and stakeholders while recognising our responsibility to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on all aspects of our operations. At Syama, a decision has been made to limit the travel of non-essential workers from outside the surrounding region to the mine site. This decision was made to limit the risk of transmission of the virus between separate regional populations and to maintain Syama's isolation from the virus. Protocols are in place at Syama to ensure appropriate social distancing, hygiene, and isolation. Resolute remains committed to prioritising workforce safety."
With regards the operational guidance being withdrawn, this is simply the company taking a firm response. Note the use of 'consequential actions' in relation to the strike. This suggests the strike will not be resolved within 10 days and disruptions will likely affect output. The shock value obviously didn't help the share price however it should help to reinforce the company's stance on the current strike negotiations.
Hi again chaps! As a former long term holder I'm really sorry to see the pain on this board. I never posted on here when I sold in order not to sound negative. Based on my valuation fair price was 74p for 1500 gold and 90p for 1600 gold. So I sold all my shares between 74 and 79. Didn't make much money here but also didn't lose much.
I was tempted to get back in after the coup in Mali but now with the strike it seems that there's a bit of a pattern in all these unfortunate events. As others have said it hints at incompetence at the helm. They say fortune favours the brave. It seems that the opposite is true as well. Sure, the coup is outside of their control but both the strike and the technical issues at Syama would've been avoided by a different team. Personally, I don't invest when I have question marks over management so I'm staying away.
However, for those brave enough, I do feel there's money to be made here! Both the coup and the strike are fully priced in now and again, IMO the gold in the ground is worth 74p, so that's a 36% upside at 1500 gold. There aren't many value plays in the gold space atm and this is one of them. So good luck, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!
The Unions feel/suspect that the longer people are told to stay at home (albeit on full pay) the more likely it is that they'll be paid off eventually.
So the Unions are demanding those at home are allowed to return and are assured future employment.
However, RSG know that if they capitulate easily to the request, the Union will see this as a weakness and soon come back with further demands,however unreasonable the demands may be.
IMO this Strike issue will run and run. It will not be solved quickly in the next few days. We also have the ongoing Mali political mess.
There is still Gold there though, so although I see the SP falling to perhaps 45p, I will look to buy more when that happens.
Seems incomprehensible to me - a bugger's muddle. Should get sorted in a few days. certainly not worth selling out for in MOP
Why would you strike when you are on full pay for not working? ..... obviously no British workers involved.
They could have been working on making a pick axe out of gold ready to smuggle out by painting it black, that's the only reason I can think of that anyone would voluntarily want to work in a mine rather than receive FULL pay for not working?
My thoughts exactly Tiger.
Shorts have been ticking up a bit again since late August which also was a concern.
Originally I had been hoping for an uplift, anticipating a decent forthcoming quarterly and maybe some news on Bibiani.
I cannot imagine that the news will go down well on the asx so I have sold out (again).
Unlucky Mine Syndrome (UMS) occurs when a series of seemingly random disasters affect the same operation over and over again. Management claim they are simply unlucky, but in reality UMS is a reflection of their incompetence.
How quick Resolute were to rescind this year's guidance on this strike news. It makes one think there might be other problems at Syama as well!
Rain, Plague, Coup and Strikes ..... bring them on there's still gold in them there' hills
Half Year Underlying EBITDA up 96%
Gold production up 24% - Revenue up 33% - Net Profit after tax up 32%
Highlights for the six months to 30 June 2020
· Gold production of 217,946 ounces (oz) (H1 19: 176,237oz)
· Gold sales of 212,668oz at an average gold price received of US$1,427/oz (H1 19: 176,294oz at US$1,275/oz)
· Revenue from gold and silver sales of US$305m (H1 19: US$229m)
· Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of US$107m (H1 19: US$55m)
· Net profit after tax of US$36.3m (H1 19: US$27.5m)
· All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of US$1,020/oz (H1 19: US$828/oz)
· Syama Underground operations returned to full capacity with sulphide processing recoveries increasing to 80% in the June quarter
· Mako Life of Mine Plan (LOM) updated increasing gold production by 39% and adding two years of mine life
· Refinancing successfully completed through equity raising and new low-cost, flexible syndicated debt facility
· Ravenswood sale completed with total proceeds of up to A$300m
· Cash and bullion balance US$88m, listed investments US$35m and promissory note A$50m
· Comprehensive COVID-19 response plan implemented while maintaining full year 2020 production guidance
· FY20 Guidance maintained at 430,000oz at an AISC of US$980/oz
I am sure that there will be. These results include the large amount of low A$ hedges in the first quarter. In the UK conference call they were talking about banking waivers that will allow them to reduce the amount of hedging required for the loans to take more advantage of high spot prices.
The call was also interesting in explaining how they hope to offset tax and royalties in Mali against their vat payment.
Looks a pretty solid performance but I would hope to see higher gold price achieved in the next quarter. More to come, I think
Main points from this.
Production /ASIC still on target . Sulphide recoveries still over 80% , although still targeting 85% looking at the balance between greater throughput and higher recoveries to achieve maximum gold production.
They are confident about the situation in Mali, their office in the capital was only closed for one day and courts etc are open and functioning. Vat situation in Mali still not resolved.
Along with the plan for Tabokorini, it sounds like they are going to have a positive announcement about mineral resources during the next quarter both in Mali and elsewhere.
Back in this again now that they have released Keita. Still a lot of uncertainty, but also the potential for a good upside if the results are on track and the situation in Mali is stabilising.
Think it is this Friday when we get results
Steady as she goes. One day the market will catch up.
Media outlets are apparently spreading lies or 'fake news' about a three year transition. Today the military denied this and reiterated their intention to move quickly. Interesting comparison with the 1991 overthrow and 1992 elections. This very much looks to be a repeat of that event rather than the 2012 coup.