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Can i get an invite to discord ?
Great video. Appreciate the effort that went into the research.
Very helpful video - have looked at this for a few weeks and now have bought an initial tranche and will look to add....and wait! Thanks to you LTH posters - some very informative posts to help a newbie
With regards to Corporate communications, its very quiet, my gut feeling is they are trying to get to a position where there is constant newsflow.
Cyberbub, thanks for the feedback. My apologies about the slip of the tongue describing the forecasts as being based on Cu at $4. In the presentation it states it as $3 several times, and I do say that later in the vid. I have added a clarification to the video description admitting to the error. Good spot. Thanks.
Very nice video Contrariwise thanks!
Two quick points: there's an error on the market cap figure at the end (as mentioned by your colleague), and halfway through you say that all of the forecasts are based on $4 copper where the slide shows (correctly) that forecasts are based on $3 copper.
But very good and comprehensive, and Frank as well. As you say there may be headwinds from placing shares and warrants for a little while, but if the management deliver a good positive newsflow then these won't take too long to overcome IMO.
The basic requisites for major profitability are: management execution and copper price. That's what you're risking your money on by investing in RMM.
Cornishknocker, no offence taken. On the podcast we do our best but are very well aware that we don't know everything. We are very open to constructive criticism. I will update the description tomorrow.
Yes of course! I hope you didn't take that as a criticism, to be honest its a credit to you tgat you picked up tge railings management, its something that a lot of people don't think about.
Cornishknocker, thankyou once again for sharing your expertise. As someone new to the story it was difficult for me to find a way in. Would you mind if I added your comments to the description on the Youtube video? The more information the better. I will also add a link to this thread.
Hi Contrariwise, thats a great video (and thank you for the mention).
Just a couple of things: -
1. Tailings facility, a full tailings dam is not required, with tailings storage required being surfe/standby capacity only. The reason for this is that the duck pond mill includes a paste fill plant. The paste fill plant thickens the tailings to enable it to be placed underground (tailings dams are turning into a thing of the past after several high profile dam failures). If you look at duck pond on Google earth, tge mine had a modest 5000m2 dam, which would have mainly been used in the early days of operation before mined out stopes became available for backfilling. We already have lots of mined out areas for paste fill.
2. Ore sorting feasibility study - this is a pretty small study as the hard work was done a couple of years ago into the technical study if both XRT sorting and traditional DMS. So the feasibility study won't be much more than re running the financials.
I think the 2021 forecast was in the right ballpark. Between now and 2025 we should see progressive hikes in profit achieved and forecast - and also a lot of progress. The market does not need to wait until midnight December 31st 2024 then suddenly see a re-rate to £300m overnight which would be likely (ish) on a low PE of 6. If it did then we would all buy in the week before ;-). The way copper producers are going I can see the PE's in the industry rise much higher in any case.
A lot of things can happen between now and then especially as the grades and reserves likely increase and bigger deeper pockets observe the progress. Who knows - as the company progresses it might even take further opportunities with other copper producers... get it right and the opportunities are huge for Tony B and RMM.
I think Tony B is on a incentive to get this to 1.25? Easily achievable. All good.
By "on here" I should clarify I mean this chat room not your presentation.
Thorough and informative. How long investors have to wait for a decent return will depend on a) progress in the turnaround plan b) how well that progress is communicated (a point you made very well) and c) how forward looking the market decides to be on this company. I am hopeful of a significant rise before 2025 but by the same token some of the forecasts on here seem a tad optimistic! AIM is unpredictable and you were wise to add your disclaimer, but working with the facts as you laid them out would certainly help any potential investor to make a decision about the company.
Diryan777, great vid. Thanks. We will be updating our Share Talks occassionally, after half yearlies etc.
Thanks for the positive feedback. As you may be able to tell trying to work out what the story was took me some detective work. Thanks to everyone in this chatroom for their help in pointing me in the right direction.
Just had to come out of exile temp just to add words of encouragement to your excellent balanced analysis. We could conclude that rambler had been in a steady spiral of doom for the last 5 years but this has more than certainly been brought about by a low copper price environment. It does look like a different opportunity to the past and really it cant help but make profit if copper stays at this level, if it gets the ore sorting in place then this will also underpin the company. Copper price will play a big part but the forward outlook for it looks good.
I think you have room for a part 2 re-visitation, id like to see more detailed look at the little deer licence and more of a look at the exciting exploration upside on Ming north i have been highlighting. All in all could of done to video myself it was mirroring my thoughts so precisely.
On the shares in issue i think its important to point out for the less experienced that we are the beneficiary of the shareholder destruction and can greatly benefit from a successful turnaround. Its clear in the past the previous management were lazy and maybe they gambled on waiting for higher copper. Just do not know why they didnt raise years ago to address these problems at least on the ore sorting. On that point thanks to Cornishknocker for this ore sorting video which shows it in operation , amazing stuff !!
I like the assymetric upside.
Took a very large position in another mining share when sentiment was very low, post a placing, and it was game changer :-)
The graph on market cap was useful - showing how market cap has not changed with all the money now in the bank, debt:equity swap has resulted in a massive reduction in interest and debt payments, a turnaround plan in place, and a lot of uncertainty lifted. Leave it to the professionals to execute in the mine and we will see updates as they progress throughout the year.
Excellent presentation and well balanced. Most of it probably underlines why Josh Brown on Half Time Money stated yesterday that he wouldn't be investing in any Canadian mines anytime soon. It also helps to see issues addressed in black and white, something the Company hasn't done (communication is awful).
There are a lot of IF's to be firmed up before the Company moves significantly forward BUT the potential is there. I guess it depends whether investors can wait until 2024/5 before reaping rewards.
Thank you for taking the time to provide a good Company summary. It is truly refreshing to see a balanced view.
Good to see Cornish mentioned !
A very good objective summary. Thank you.
I think the NPV presented in the RMM October presentation understates the potential NPV because it is based on trailing lower prices (as is the norm) but we are in exceptional times.
Also a LOM over 15 years tends to add pretty much zero to the NPV for years 16 onwards due to the way DCF works (probably at 8%).
Also the other project in the portfolio ... I think it was $89m NPV when calculated a long time back so add that in, re-rate the RMM October presentation, and it's more like $400-500m. Add in extra resource from drilling - infill and exploratory and the potential is huge as you eluded to.
Management comms needs to improve - I agree - and the best way is for investors to email them until they tell us to shut up - only takes 10 minutes for one exec to come on a presentation - not too much to ask for - and then we will be happy with that for a bit while they crack on..
Added further today.
Great summary - appreciate the information being provided in a digestible form. Note to others don't be put off by length of video to be honest you can actually listen at 1.5 x speed in settings if you are pushed for time.
Thanks to everyone on this chatroom who helped me put this together for my youtube channel (not many subscribers as yet, but growing, and it is keeping me sane during lockdown). I would be grateful for any feedback or corrections.