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Advance and accelerate exploration drilling within the mine, specifically targeting the high-grade massive sulphide which returned 70 m of 9% copper when last intersected in Q4 2019; that amazing
My valuation of Rambler Metals Ming Copper/Gold mine Q2 2021 using 340 working days per annum.
My first post gave my analysis of the mine economics prior to the latest turn around plans.
The NPV @7% discounted was calculated to be £270.94mil with a share holding of 10.69bil
Estimated NPV /Share was 2.53pence
I have recalculated the economics taking into consideration the latest mine plans and up to date prices.
my revised NPV discounted @7% is calculated to be £685.61mil the share holding is 10.709bil.
Revised NPV @7% discount per share is 6.4pence based on the following data.
Year 2021 tonnage milled per day (tpd) 1350 @ 1.8% Cu, 0.52g/t Au and 2.69 g/t Ag
2022-2024 sorting plant will provide a higher head grade to the mill requiring increased ROM tonnage ie,
H1(first half)2022, 1600tpd. H2 2022 2000 tpd then 2000 tpd thereafter until 2025.
Sorting H1 2022 15%,H2 30% sorting thereafter 30%for LOM.
Head grade increases H1 2022 2% Cu , H2 2022 2.5% Cu
2025 Duck pond mill will be relocated and milling capacity increased to 2400 tpd with sorting the mine will require to produce 3450 ROM tonnes. The head grade will be 2.59% Cu.
Total post tax costs will reduce from 2.49 $us/lb Cu in 2021 to $us2.13/lb Cu 2022 to $us 2.03/lb in 2025.
Capex figures used in NPV calculation , figures obtained from various company reports.
Initial Capex $us 18m, recently raised Capex $us15, sustaining Capex over LOM $us 27.9.
The prices for Cu, Au and Ag used are present day prices.
LOM
The present mine resource is 23.448m tonnes. I calculate that total tonnes milled during LOM (20years) to be 22.89m tonnes. Any increase in resource discovered during the mine's stepout exploration program will increase the LOM beyond the year 2041. this is highly likely.
The new mine plan ,if executed successfully . on time and within budget will dramatically improve the mine economics.
My updated calculations give an NPV discounted @7% to be $us 918.717mil = £685.61 mil
shareholding 10709098673
NPV /share = 6.4pence
This is my own assessment , please do your own calculation to confirm or shoot down my valuation of 6.4pence
This share is seriously undervalued.
Afbouer