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JB, Scamp, many thanks for posting your views. Having seen the FB session last night (with some rewinding on occasions) and looking at the body language from TP, I am of the opinion that a deal is currently 40/60 against a deal. TP will most certainly be asking for 2.7% for the first year (in keeping with CMA) and the SWW is still very much in the table as it will help protect full time posts going forward. It is also important as it could be the catalyst for achieving different and innovative working patterns which are both more family friendly and easier on the body as staff get older.
Scampthedog I know it is confusing with such large trades but it would have to be a buy to reduce their short and yes Blackrock would appear to be a reasonable candidate. I wouldn't be too surprised if it was DK just like any other trader top slicing only on a much larger scale. As I mentioned if it was a sale by DK or another institution to drop just over 1.6% is not too bad. As I have said before I expect SWW to be in any agreement and the self funding measurement will need to be thrashed out very clear and robust. Any future hours reductions proposed will IMO follow the same methodology.
Why do you see the hour reduction as paramount importance to delivery? are you linking that to a potential reduction to USO ensuring as TP said some job security for full timers.
I agree CWU only want a 1 year deal and TP will try for the best he can get perhaps 1.7% for this year followed by a 2 year 1.2% and 1%. He could ask for a further payment for the hour/s in previous agreements but the key point which we can't or shouldn't forget these needed to be self funding so I personally don't think he will go down that line. If a deal for closer to 2% was agreed for this year only that might be sold as recompense for working through the pandemic or 1 hour of SWW.
I think the chances of an agreement and a paydeal are 75% it will happen in next few weeks. As always we can only give our opinions,hypothesis and guesses on numbers, the facts will emerge soon/eventually.
Yes, I agree, JB, It will be important as to who dumped that large trade late on Friday afternoon.
If it is shorts selling to then reduce their short position down even further...then thats, obviously, good news; it could only be BlackRock I would have thought, if indeed it was someone actually closing a short position, due to the large single size of the trade.
But...if its Kretinsky taking profit...then...oh dear. Ah well, like you commented: "we will find out probably Mon/Tue".
As for yours comments regarding Pullinger's update...I have to confess I did not see it that way in the slightest.
To me, Pullinger looked and sounded quite rueful.
If you recall, on his closing note, he made comment, again, to the "Four Pillars Agreement"; specifically the "Shorter Working Week".
Do not think for one minute that any new agreement could not include at least an hours reduction...it would never get ratified by the membership. And whats more...the CWU leadership know it.
If people think that this dispute is primarily about pay...then they are sadly wrong.
For a great proportion of posties that reduction in the working week is of paramount importance...especially in delivery.
Without at least one of the two hours that will be owed come this October any proposed agreement would be dead in the water. Period!
And regarding pay. The union does not want a three year deal at present. It wants its members to be rewarded through a one year deal that takes into account the extra mile a lot of hardworking posties (yes there are still some) have gone this year; no doubt, at some later date, afterwards, an extra two year pay deal could then be thrashed out to be nailed on.
If I had to guess (and it is a guess) I would have to suggest that Pullinger wants at least a 2.7% pay rise this year alone plus a reduction of one hour in the working week; he may well also demand a £500.00 payment to all posties for giving up the extra hour for another twelve months to be then negotiated upon next year.
The chances of an agreement in my view? 1 in 3 at best -- at vey best!!
And you will only have to wait another three weeks at the very most to find out...perhaps not even that.