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Also bought back into RKH (s/p@8p range), in June this year, Cragrock,....agree, the potential returns are huge, at these s/p levels,....good to see, Bank of America, oil prices expectations ;-
Bank Of America: Brent Will Recover To $60 In H1 2021
Source : https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bank-Of-America-Brent-Will-Recover-To-60-In-H1-2021.html (thanks to mswartz, for link).
BW
and on shareholdings godawful I think the 2019 report said 2.4million. You may be including some options in a higher figure but 2.4 is the comparable number.
Bit of a misleading post there godawful eh?
Anyway, you now hold about as much as your mate Sam.
I fully expect godawful's tone to start to moderate a little after he's completed his last 15k
Godders99,
So I take it you won't be buying anymore until January 2021 then ?
Sft out, gone fishing.
(-:
Hi Cyan, thank you for pointing out those facts.
Appreciated...I forgot about phase 2 in relation to the latest report...but....I still feel that PMO have had to take that off the table (as raised before) due probabley to debt management/ near term projection??? for now and then reassess????
The good thing with Eddison and their was that they did present a proffesional assessment to the market. Which we have now lost.
Just for info: If "anyone" who thinks the reports are not valued in the proffesional market
About Edison Research
"Since its founding in 1994, Edison Research has conducted over 13,000 research assignments in 50 countries. Edison works with a broad array of commercial clients, governments and NGOs, including AMC Theatres, The Brookings Institution, Disney, the Gates Foundation, Google, the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, Oracle, Pandora, the Pew Research Center, Samsung, Spotify, SiriusXM Radio and Univision Communications.
Since 2004, Edison Research has been the sole provider of Election Day data to the National Election Pool, conducting exit polls......"
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200505005302/en/New-Poll-Marketplace®-Edison-Research-Finds-Largest
We could if course rely on RKH or those in the know, with speacial friends (-:
Good to chat whilst nothing is happening...when is summer officially over folks?
Any bets on timelines for:
OM
Navitas
PoO +$60
GLA
Rgds Sft
I should have added the last Edison report was dated 23rd April. On 15th May PMO RNS'd project suspension which has huge financial implications in the delay.;
"In the Falkland Islands, Premier has taken the decision to suspend Sea Lion Phase 1 to minimise ongoing spend in light of the current market conditions. Sea Lion Phase 1 is complete from a technical aspect and all of the work which has been done to date is being fully documented, such that the project can be reactivated once the macroeconomic outlook improves. A reduced team will continue to progress government, commercial and financing matters including the transaction documentation with Navitas who remain committed to farming in for a 30 per cent interest in the Sea Lion licences."
Hi Surfit .I note you lines;
".they are now scrapping the piggy bank and nothing will change untill Navitas come up with the cash. I think it is the right move.*
Nothing has changed financially from the last report correct?"
There has been a big change;
On 15th July PMO RNS'd with lines that indicated a $200m write off for drills on phases 2 & 3 . Only a phase 1 development left on the table now.
Navitas will not raise cash BEFORE the new deal is signed and approved by the FIG and thereafter only if they are certain SEALION will be developed.
The Edison reports was a useful aid for publicizing the company. If RKH are so strapped for cash that they need to save £49,500; it says something that we frankly all already knew; the cash position is weak and that the company will need a cash injection by spring 2022 at the very latest.
We HOPE that an arbitration award will be received well before then, but we can not count on anything.
The good news today is the recovery in POO to over $45
Hi Cyan,
As I see it Eddison comments: "Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies" have been made because if the company(s) went off on a complete tangent to the previous actions the their previous reports would be invalid. I see it as a standard comment.
I do not think the termination of Eddison reporting is anything other than cost savings....they are now scrapping the piggy bank and nothing will change untill Navitas come up with the cash. I think it is the right move.*
Nothing has changed financially from the last report correct?
*Note: that and a 50% pay cut and no additional share grabbing (never happen).
All IMO only.
Rgds Sft
This is essentially a dead company, almost no chance of oil ever coming out of the Falklands given the anti oil sentiment and the global pandemic
It has no significant funds to develop elsewhere and no cash flows following the Egyptian exit
Moody and the other Directors have almost nothing to do and yet cotinue to draw large salaries and bonus payments as well as generous share options in case a miracle happens
It is true that a surprise settlement from the OM case could still happen but we're in the hands of lawyers and the Italian Government so don't hold your breath
Navitas must now be a long shot too given this years events and frankly I would be very surprised if this share ever breaks 10p again before it is finally put to sleep in the next 2 years once Moody has extracted all the cash he can
Does this make me a de-ramper?! Who cares? I still hold 300k shares @ 21p but reality is hard to ignore
I CANT SEE falklands ever getting off the ground
cyan2,
Just a thought would Navitas dislike the many times higher share price broker ratings ?
No more Edison reports
29th July 2020
"Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Avacta Group (AVCT), BCI Minerals (BCI), Destiny Pharma (DEST), Globalworth Real Estate Investments (GWI), Henderson Alternative Strategies Trust (HAST), Herantis Pharma (HRTIS), Jupiter Green Investment Trust (JGC) and Rockhopper Exploration (RKH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website"
hTTps://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/rockhopper-exploration-plc/research/edison/rockhopper-exploration-termination-of-coverage/3_27387xxx-e8c5-52f8-d175-c339d166aff9
The Edison reports were a useful source of data . Why have they stopped covering RKH? Rockhopper paid Edison £49,500 for their covering the company. A cost saving measure or were they worried that further analysis would highlight RKH difficult financial situation going forward and/or the lessening of SEALIONS development chances?
" Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. "
So we can not rely on content as per in the January Edison report here;
hTTps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/sea-lion-funding-outlook-strengthened/25927/
or the last Edison report dated 23rd April 2020, here;
hTTps://www.edisongroup.com/publication/parties-committed-to-complete-sea-lion-deal/26659/
"This report has been commissioned by Rockhopper Exploration and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Rockhopper Exploration. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. "
Godders has finally gone green on my screen after last nights effort from him...I don't add much enlightenment to this board but at least |I generally keep my trap shut when I have nothing to say.
Praising, I obviously meant!!
Godders, one pseudonym braising another. I think you need to see someone, talking to yourself like that.
I agree; more progress on the legals and FIG consent could have been made. I think they were seriously considering ditching the SEALION project and paused, watching world developments. Thankfully they came to the conclusion that there will be a day for SEALION sometime in the future and want to remain in.
Do not underestimate NAVITAS ability to fund raise funds. View this from ;12.12.18
hTTps://en.globes.co.il/en/article-navitas-jumps-on-positive-shenandoah-report-1001264557
"Navitas jumps on positive Shenandoah report"
Shenandoah is a deep-water project; 1700 metres ; far deeper than SEALION.
"Navitas and the operator believe that commercial production in the project will commence in 2023. Navitas's share of the development costs will be $184 million."
(contracts for the 'trees' was announced in October 19)
"(Navitas's shares is 65 million barrels)"
"Navitas acquired rights in the Shenandoah discover in March for only $1.8 million in cooperation with two of its partners in the Buckskin project:"
"Navitas and its partners in Shenandoah took advantage of the bankruptcy proceedings of Cobalt International Energy to acquire the rights at a very low price, then filed a revised development plan for the reservoir."
Just $1.8 million ; impressive!
Now jump to this recent development;
July 28th 2020
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3595973-blackstone-to-boost-stake-in-gom-drilling-project-to-47-partner-says
"Navitas says the project is expected to generate $1.13B in cash flow for the company; production is forecast to begin in 2024."
Looks like NAVITAS are able to raise development cash and generate huge cash flows in due course.
Hi Cyan,
Re Apache: Never say never I guess.
It does amaze me how quiet deals/aquisitions/mergers can be kept.
Unless you have "special" friends of course (-;
Navitas must (I hope, not the "forlorn" type, fingers crossed) have been pretty good at selling their potential to raise cash to PMO's (& RKH's) BoD's and to then go through the whole rigmarole with Fig and legal.
All will be revealed, one thing is for sure the Saudi's will not be investing (-:
Thanks for the input and discussions.
Rgds Sft
Entirely fair to point out the dismal failure of PMO to sanction SEALION even in 2018 when Robin ROSE from PMO suggested it was targeted for that years end.
The whole problem has been PMO's financial woes and a overly generous farmin deal that PMO could not honour.
They have been looking for years for another partner and a chance to change the deal. The critical thing that has changed is the arrival of NAVITAS and the new terms. At the beginning of the year SEALION looked odds on. We all know what happened next. NAVITAS are the recent change that gave hope that SEALION could yet be developed.
The critical shorter term issue is indeed RKH dire finances as I have previously detailed. They have to receive a large arbitration award. Know the risks & DYOR
Good afternoon to Surfit.
Reference Apache possible takeover of PMO. I seem to recall that the rumour was put to both parties who would not comment; makes me think there may be something in the talk.
This article recently commented on Apache's poor results and a move away from Shale;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/07/29/apache-reports-386-million-loss-renewed-international-focus/
Extract;
"U.S. shale oil and gas producer Apache APA +1.8% Corporation has turned its focus to international investments after reporting steep second-quarter losses stemming largely from its U.S. oil and gas business."
As regards Navitas; it was always going to be a big job raising finance for SEALION but they have to first wait for the legals and FIG agreements and then hope for a better economic environment. It took them a fair while to announce they were still up for the partnership. . I did think they would walk so it was a relief when they cleared up their position. They do have a record for raising funds so fingers crossed for the future.
I see POO is pretty good considering, so I am more hopeful for next year.
PMO seem to be getting on top of their financial issues and this extract from the 15th July update is good;
"As a result of the recent improvement in commodity prices together with the action taken by Premier during the first half of the year to reduce its 2020 expenditure, the Group now expects to be free cash flow positive (after interest) for full year 2020 based on the current forward curve."
Godders99 is absolutely right to be cautionary.. Personally, I give SEALION a one in three chance now... Things can change pretty fast in the world. It was in 2018 when Trump was moaning that POO was too high when it hit $80. The years average was $71. Not much of the worlds oil industry thrives with POO in the mid forty dollars. Hoping against hope for next year .
Godawful, all you're saying is nothing at all.
Just prodding to get reassurance from anyone who might have something to add for your big bet here.
Godawful, all you're saying is nothing at all.
Just prodding to get reassurance from anyone who might have something to add for your big bet here.
Godders, oil is a natural product, and readily digested by microorganisms, and in a year or two leaves no trace. Whilst the optics of a black sludge and oil drenched seabirds are terrific for the media, the long term damage is minimal compared with heavy metal contamination from many metal extractions (or radiation etc). alos, oil leaks up to the surface, every year or two, more oil leaks from underground into the Gulf of Mexico than was released by Deepwater Horizon, just not all at once in one place.. Again great optics for getting financial compensation. How are those affected areas now?
Cubane
... to spell it out, Navitas's discussions with their own funders could quite easily come down towhether or not Navitas are prepared to pass on any of the upside from Isobel to people who are basically just being asked to fund phase 1.
But if I was a betting man (and I Guess we're all doing that) there's enough there at somewhere between $45 and $50 oil for this all to get done.
I'll be more relaxed if/when PMO's lenders and equity placing are all sorted for their N Sea deal. But we'll have to wait for some time towards the end of Sept for that, all being well.