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@MANJUKWAI: this doesn't have to be the case. The only thing they need is to make money and win enough that they will get the big cases. If they would win 50% of the cases, it means they will have to earn twice the cost to break even. Nevertheless, I suspect that they only taking cases that they expect to win in at least 70-80% of the times. In my opinion, RKH is very likely to win both the initial costs plus some lost profits, which is based on the question: Would it have taken this long if they would have lost or only got a compensation of the building costs?
It’s not solicitors taking the risk. Harbour are specialist litigation funders, but I guess the point still stands that they will have done their due diligence beforehand.
Let’s hope they got it right.
I have said this before but high powered firms of solicitors do not risk years of work, especially on no win no fee cases, unless they are near 100% convinced they are certain of a good result.
I would like to think that the arbitors come to a conclusion, then a secretariat has to write it up in full, then a ruling Council has to rubber stamp/make it official, all of which must take a few days post arbitor decisiion, so if it is to be done in time, the decision is made
Cubane
Michael is 100% accurate.....
..as a contra-indicator
Well Michael, we'll have to wait and see won't we, but you're setting yourself up to look like a complete wally.
Don't think K&S would agree with you, but of course, you're FAR more clever than they are, aren't you?
Hey up..... Eeyore is back spreading his fun and sunshine once again.
I have a feeling that RKH will receive zero money from the Italian government. You cannot win against the Mafia Government.
headder, I wish you the best of luck. As for OM / ECT / ICSID or whatever anyone wishes to call the matter, I think I smell an announcement in the air, but having thought that a few times before, I'm not going to make a public tit of myself by saying so!
As this isn't a 'court case', but arbitration and the Italian State has done everything possible to frustrate progress and the tribunal has had to be seen to have been scrupulously fair / impartial, then the delays probably indicate the exact opposite of what you posted.
Had RKH lost their claim, it would have been concluded ages ago, by being dismissed.
In fact, that the Italian State lawyers have been so disruptive may well be reflected in any award.
You may remember that some time ago, RKH lawyers, K&S merely asked the tribunal about progress (like the kids in the back asking "Are we nearly there?") and they received a VERY frosty reply, warning them not to try anything like that again, or they might regret it.
Well, the Italian State lawyers have done far worse than that and several times, so I doubt if the tribunal will simply let them get away with it, should RKH succeed and an award given in their favour.
headder - There is some difference between a court case and this case. But, ultimately a binary decision is going to be made just the same and its taken 5 years and counting. I don't see the length taken so far as pointing to towards success or failure.
Ovets - Just point the guy in the right direction, rather seeing him as someone that needs to be ridiculed and attacked.
I consider this a get rich slowly investment and aren't heavily invested here at the moment so only follow the board loosely you see.
Will have to wait and see.
Can't remember posting here in April, must have been when I bought my shares.
I wish no harm to headder, but actually he/she has been posting here since April 2022, so probably reading from before that, during which time the OM claim (and the ICSID award) has been discussed to death. Everything anyone needs to know about the subject has already been posted, several times over.
Therefore, I stand by my comment. headder has clearly not been paying much attention.
“We used to have some $300m before……..”
Those were the days..! It’s all gone, George Best has nothing on Sam Moody
Will any award not be taxable? In Italy?
Also what happens to the cash? We used to have some $300m before……..
@much
My understanding is there's no "cost part" of the claim. That transaction is between a buyer who's not the legal entity the Italians swung an axe at by changing their rules, and a seller who's not being sued or asked for the "cost" back in this case, and actually isn't connected to the case at all. It's just irrelevant to the claim.
All the cash flows that go into the profit calculation would normally be discounted/accreted at the chosen rate. So yes, the end result is accumulation from whatever figure you would when the claim was filed, upto whenever an award is made.
Ignore ovets she's just a coque.
The man/woman just asked a question Ovets… i know we are all fed up with posters trying to talk this down, but as far as i can see header just appears to be an Ill informed/new investor seeking reassurance or to learn. I read these boards to learn myself and there are heaps that I know nothing about with regards to rkh which others may see as fundamental to their decision making. Perhaps give the poster the benefit of doubt before being rude?
Kind regards D
Please header, before publicly broadcasting that you haven't a clue about what you're posting, why not do a bit of research, including reading the reams of very good (and some as awful as yours) posts on the matter.
Then come back and post something sensible - by then, we'll know the result and so your efforts will have been completely wasted, but at least we'll have enjoyed a bit of peace.
Hi LTT.
Not sure how they work it but the 7% should be worked back to the point that Italy changed the rules and banned drilling.
However this would I guess only be on the cost part of the claim rather than lost profits . However you could argue that the profits from each year’s production could have been re-invested for a return so the 7% should be applied to this too.
Hopefully not long now until we will get to see either way.
Hi Much, I was thinking something similar, 7 or 8 percent but wanted to air on the conservative side. But 7% would be nearer £2m for a 2 month extension on a payout of £150m. Just out of interest how do they work out the interest? Obviously they can’t work it back to when the case started as £150m @ 7% per year would be £10.5m!
LTT
It’ll be extended to give the Italians and other crooked politicians more time to dream up a change in the rules under the guise of climate change….COVID has shown us there is no limit to what they will do to protect their interests
The problem for Italy,
apart from Harbour voluntarily stumping up the money long term on a no win/no fee basis,
and their employing a very expensive top of the range group of lawyers,
is that Italy were by all reasonable accounts, absolutely in breach of the ECT
That should be there undoing, and rightly so !!
As for the award, anything net to Rock of $15m and I will be reasonably content,
everything above that will be a nice, and somewhat expected, bonus.
Headder
Its not a court case.
Isn't it a bad sign when news isn't given to the market until the last minute? It usually means there is a spanner in the works somewhere, so after a court case closing, for a jury to be taking so long to make a verdict, doesn't this mean the chance of success here has to be increasingly lower with the passage of time? I can see a bottom fishing opportunity looming......
Garbled
You do realise that all those paper £50 notes behind the couch will become worthless in October unless you bank them ?