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Hi Cit
I believe the combination of that comment and the author, could be the Oxymoron of the week :-)
Kind regards Sft
I mean education is a good thing but a little in the wrong hands ...
I think you mean 'affect', not 'effect'.
Anyhoo, will stop there for fear of educating you.
Hello Cit, thanks you for the input. If the straights were closed then that would significantly effect the ability to supply. So that would of course be a part of the speculation and reaction.
BUT
China remains a constant topic by many other quotes on influencing factors. I am not putting out any particular theory (nor for any particular agenda) just opening up debate, whilst we wait for news regarding RKH. So you see this as the ONLY influencing factor in PoO. is that what you are saying?
Shale, producing countries supply ability (or want i.e. OPEC+) , larger (Chine i.e.) customer demand etc etc are not factors???
Kind Rgds SFT
errr ... drivel Surfit! see below from Bloomberg below (www.bloomberg.com/energy)
I really don't think that you guys are standing on ground of your own choosing any more. You're just erecting barricades around where you are. But it's not where you want to be.
----------------------------------
Markets
Oil Jumps as Tanker Seizures Escalate Persian Gulf Tensions
By Harkiran Dhillon
18 July 2019, 23:40 BST
Updated on 19 July 2019, 21:50 BST
Iranian authorities capture two vessels: UK Foreign Secretary
Hedgeye analyst says the market should expect more risk ahead
Oil jumped in after-market trading following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp seizing a British oil tanker and a Liberian-flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz, raising stakes in the critical oil chokepoint.
Brent futures rose as much as 1.4% from its settlement, while WTI futures also edged higher after the seizure of the tankers. U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Friday that he is “extremely concerned by the seizure of two naval vessels by Iranian authorities in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“With all the noise about potential negotiations with Iran, the reality is that geopolitical risk is enormously high in the heart of the oil producing gulf and key transport corridor,” said Joe McGonigle, an energy policy analyst for Hedgeye Risk Management and a former senior official at the U.S. Energy Department. “Iran’s only response to maximum pressure by the U.S. is maximum chaos in the region that tries to win concessions from the U.S. Iran’s seizure of the British tanker is just one example and we think the market should get prepared for more risk ahead.”
Dire Straits - A Timeline of Events
Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East, New York futures ended the week 7.6% lower, the biggest weekly loss in nearly two months, amid fears about waning demand. The U.S.-China trade war and expanding American fuel stockpiles have also weighed on prices.
“The biggest factor driving oil prices today is the Iran-U.S. tension story,” said Phil *****, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. “The rallies appear to show the conflict in Strait of Hormuz might be more serious and that stakes are raised going into this weekend.”
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at $55.76 a barrel at 4:46 p.m. after settling at $55.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent for September settlement traded as high as $63.37 a barrel before trading at $62.87 a barrel. The benchmark closed at $62.47 on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
See also: U.S. Demands Iran Release Foreign Ship, Crew Seized This Week
After the U.K. tanker Stena Impero was escorted into Iranian waters, a second vessel in the area, the Liberian-flagged Mesdar, appeared to turn toward the Iranian coast, according to ship-tracking data. The second tanker has left Iranian waters, according to Fars News.
In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump said he will be “working with t
The price is on its way down again (RKH belatedly following). Quite often China is quoted as a significant influencing factor and the fall out with Trump / potential trade war used as an influencing factor in these PoO “fluctuations”
We have tensions in the middle east ranging from Iran sanctions, Iraq not fully producing, Libya not fully producing. In the South Americas Venezuela (the largest producer) virtually out of the picture and OPEC+ holding on to their earlier limits.
With China imports up from this (link below) data statistic it does make you wonder who/what actually is effecting the oil price. Because it would be pretty low if Iran and Venezuela were fully in the picture?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Data-Breakdown-Oil-Consumption-Rises-58-In-H1-2019.html
Rgds SFT
good riddance
Forgot about you ralph2010.
Cheers, off you pop 2.
GLA
Did you find the button all by yourself ?
I have parrot and the other three 'harse' clowns oily, ralph and kurgen on ignore. Mute the Muppets folks.
Yup, isn't it nice and peaceful without the oiks.
Like swatting a bunch of wasps who were spoiling a picnic, or turning-off that horrendous grating noise.
Another 1, filtered out.
Off you pop Olliesky.
GLA
As I've said countless times, today's PoO may be a slight influence, but the real issue is what it's likely to be over the next 10 years or so - I'm glad I'm not the one who has to predict that!
Then there's the type/quality of the oil, the relatively benign tax regime and many other factors - some good, some not so good.
However, on balance, if you've got that much top quality oil under your feet and the very real prospects of a lot more, you're not going to leave it there, despite what Keith Padgett may have said in his farewell speech.
RKH still holding up despite PoO falls? Where as PMO after a stable up date has followed down like a duckling.
A couple of decent sized purchases yesterday 15.44k and 12.81k ?
Combined with some one possibly trying to creep out at the same time with small frequent sells?
The larger 2x purchasing is interesting with low confidence in PoO freshening again, some one has belief of some good news.
Rgds SFT
Will be interesting to see how the recent gains, hold out against the drop in PoO. Profit taking on the way for those that want to take 5%? . It will be reflective of someone sold 2x 50,000 blocks at 13:00 is yesterday, well off the peak.
Still there were plenty of buying yesterday morning?
Rgds SFT