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longtermthinker,
Its probably all just a big distraction as we are actually running out of Oil and Gas and then we are all fooked !
Re the arbitration I don't know for sure but I think Italy cannot now just offer to settle as its with the arbitrators, its too late and its does rather look like they were in the wrong so judgement will be against them.
The solution to reduce demand is Agenda21.
You'll own now't and rent everything. Not just cars, house and appliances but your clothes too. Seriously. Go check it out.
That and the much darker ambition to reduce the world population to under 1 billion.
Mike :/
Hi Auson,
I see what you mean, I suppose I was thinking along the lines of more reason for Italy to sort it and pay up, particularly if they are looking for investment in any sector going forward. The big news with India and Cairn is bad press.
I just hope it starts to make SL and dealing with FIG look more and more attractive. If as seems the concensus we are in the twilight of fossil fuels, then such a region with great fiscal regime is a sure way to get a quicker return on investment.
To be honest my biggest concern as many shy away from fossil fuel investment is what happens when nobody invests in extraction and production can't be met by the likes of Russia and Saudi, they can't earn enough to invest further and oil starts to rise? We might all be able to afford and have access to an electric car in the next 5 years, but do we have the infrastructure to support it, does wind and solar have the clout to fill the fossil fuel gap? I know for a fact the Nuclear project Hitachi walked away from was a king pin to UK's energy needs over the coming years, now it's not happening, nobody is talking about the elephant in the room! What is going to make up the slack? Despite the move from fossil fuels, we will need gas powered stations otherwise we will be in big trouble.
LTT
Hi LTT,
I posted about this yesterday, unlike the old days when states did not payout the awards against them , the claimants now hire specialists who seek out state assets ,overseas generally ,and produce them to the arbiters at the award hearing should states claim they cannot pay. This prevents states from delaying payments to claimants . New York courts is generally where this ends up . It's somewhat surprising how states think they can get away with it even when it's in the ECT law.
I suspect that between closing the case/ arbitration and the award decision the latest updated seizeable assets will be presented to the arbiters to oppose against any argument the Italian state lawyers make to delay proceedings and payment, as once the decision is made it is final. I'm sure they will try the "there is no government in place" line if it's announced soon.
I think I am correct in the above, though I'm not a lawyer lol.
Zama, If they can't even agree on the unitisation of the field, still ongoing after how long ?
Imagine if parties disagree on the Mexican regulators decision, then it could be in limbo for a long time. Could even end up in court to resolve it. AMLO, the Mexican President seems quite happy to burn bridges with the International companies .
Sealion is no brainer, bet Harbour are fishing for bigger partners and increased capitol input. If not they have the finance and knowhow to go it alone with RKH.
SP volatility will be here till concrete news, just trading it with a small pot.
LTT,
I'm not sure we can 'cross read' too much from the Cairn India arbitration. $1.2billion + interest vs lets say one tenth of that $120m+ interest. Its less of a big deal for Italy ( and they have changed the law to prevent further cases )
In addition
India's GDP per capita $2140
Italy's GDP per Capita $33800
what ever happened to the RKH court case against Italy for lost profits due to the govenrment banning offshore drilling on one of their projects?
It is a little off topic, but this does affect us in a couple of ways. Will Italy want to go the same route if we get a sizeable payout? Will they try and settle before the final decision? India doing this will hit them hard when they are looking for partners in the future, big and mid cap oil players are having it hard enough without the risk of losing billions when countries start down a nationalistic route.
The other reason I bring this up is obviously to do with Harbour. India is a pretty international player, in most cases following the international rules of play, but this will spook oil companies a bit. It will make Harbour again think twice about doing anything with Zama and the state run Pemex. I can understand dipping a toe in on some smaller projects as a partner to build relationships, but Zama would be a big project; are Harbour really up for investing billions to then have it all taken away and spend millions in court to get anything back! They must see that part of the reason they have got PMO was because the Zama sale was strung along by Pemex, they would be foolish to put the new group in the same situation when an oven ready Penguin is basted and ready to go!
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
LTT