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You can for a while until your can't.
In fact, in hindsight it's quite easy.
Plenty of momentum "traders" who claim to be gods gift to investing. Then you stop hearing from them.
Some will have got lucky, got out due to nothing other than good fortune, and be sipping mai tais on the beach. The vast majority will have lost most, if not all.
GS
Mandrill,
Have you heard of research ?
Do you think with $millions worth of computer powe,r high frequency and algorythmic trading you can simply follow momentum to make money in the markets ?
We're talking gnat's margins in the sp at the moment.
I made money on RKH when it was hyped to hell some years back but wouldn't invest again at this juncture.
You need to see some momentum. Only 'the market' can decide which way it goes.
I look at various stocks from time to time to see if anything's moving. Going on potential valuation and jam tomorrow seems fruitless. You have to be lucky - not clever - to get the timing right.
Not yet!
20 bid tomorrow. Who says no?
Mandrill didn’t just pop over out of curiosity, it came quite deliberately to stir trouble and publicise how ignorant it is.
So in 2013 I am only seeing $210m cash and $80m of deposits.
I guess Mandrills musing sum up perfectly why we are 20 p and the extent to which people outside of RKH are ignorant of the upside and just how close we are to Sealion being sanctioned. No doubt he has never even heard of Ombrina Mare.....
So the downtrend since 2012 is about to change you think?
Mandrill,
Is the ex oil analyst Tom Winnifrith an idiot ? Or how about Malcys blog or the Eddison research ? Or Premier oil who paid hundreds of $milllions for 60% and offered hundreds of $millions more financing ?
Hopped over here purely out of curiosity.
Only an idiot or a brave day trader would buy RKH. Look at the long term trend and ask yourself if that's likely to change?
The vast majority of the $5.8m Admin and miscellaneous line is a working capital reversal. It was clearly stated previously that the 2018 YE number was ~$5m articifically high due to to working capital timing.
As I previously indicated, the Edison sponsored report was already as good as guidance for the 2019 YE cash number - $27m according to "them" back at the beginning of August. The guidance today shouldn't surprise anyone.
All in, I'm slightly more positive, given that there is now visibility of a reasonable cash underpin to at least Q1/Q2 next year. It's all still "binary", but the chance of actually having those events play out, for better or worse, looks reasonably good.
GS
from RNS:
Cash resources of US$27 million at 30 June 2019 and no debt
Disposal of Rockhopper Egypt Pty Limited for US$16 million announced in July 2019, with completion anticipated in Q4 2019
Year end 2019 cash resources estimated to be in the range of US$25-30 million
So from June to End of 2019 they will spend ~$16 million ?
Yes, the sale of the Egyptian assets was spun. I think there was a degree of panic looking at future possible capital commitments in that projects, and also seeing their own run rate of spend within RKH. So in a way they were forced sellers.
The saga reminds me (just to repeat) of the situation of Bowleven who got a pile of money from selling some of their oil exploration fields, wasted huge amounts of money on a large extended board, and general incompetence on some other drilling commitments, and yet were still looking to buy other exploration assets.
RKH at least bought some producing assets, but forgot the first law of oil assets... they have CAPEX needs that come with them. You would need a pretty significant multiple of cash to cover liabilities in the oil business, which is why most AIM explorers have practically gone bust, despite in some cases have many millions in their accounts.
No way were the board members ever going to give up their salaries. As in Bowleven they would have to be forced off. Their interests are technically owed to shareholders, but the reality is that they look after their own interests first.
We are now operating on a knife edge of cash reserves, so anyone buying more shares without some solid news is very risky, unless you can trade them out for a profit.
So far ~$500 million has been spent on this
Auson,
Go and check how much money rkh had after farm-out to premier and how many shares were in issue. Then compare that with today's RNS.
sabyam,
Top rant there and I don't disagree but ( I would like to see your workings on the $200m being burnt ?)
But back to the original question do you think I was right with my answer ?
Suresh,
That hasn't stopped management awarding themselves salaries of half a million quid + 20 staff to fetch water and carry bags for the top management. And yes, don't forget the nil cost options that the CEO and CFO have been awarding themselves - 1% of the company in the last award by the way.
And why shouldn't they? They have succeeded wildly haven't they? They deserve the big dog salaries and the stock options. Big success deserves big rewards.
Amazing wealth creation for the shareholders = amazing rewards for management (NOT for RKH)
For RKH, the formula is:
Amazing wealth loss for the shareholders = amazing rewards for management!
Get on the gravy train employees! We are arriving at the destination when they would have spent all the shareholders' money.
Shareholders, get ready for a capital raise for Captain Sam to take Rockhopper on to new shores.
sabyam,
exactly, 100% correct, i wish i could give you 1000 ticks,
rkh management is very bad they have burnt $200million+ since the farm-out in 2012 and had 60% dilution of shares and achieved zilch/ zero
Auson,
RKH expect to end the year with $25mn in cash with no producing assets and 20 ppl in their Welbeck st. offices doing f**kall. And they still manage to spend $6mn of cash in the first half on admin and misc. Surely needs a detailed explanation.
And yes, since the Egypt sale is going to be effective from 1 Jan 2019, they will lose all the revenues when the accounts are restated after the sale is finalised.
Only Sam could buy an asset for $12mn when the oil price in the 40s, sell the asset with oil price in the high 60s and make a loss on it. Bought for $12mn, sold for $11mn + shares and spent a lot of capex in the interim. Amazing deal!! By the way, they talk about enjoying free cash flow from Egypt - what have they spent in total in capex for that asset? I highly doubt a single penny was made by the decision to buy the asset even when the timing (oil price) was great. But mgmt judgement overshadowed even the low oil price. Great deal!
Amazing Sam - amazing foresight, judgement and deal-making ability. We have a super management in place.
And by the way, the new nincompoop Chairman thinks that was a great deal presenting it to the shareholders as if it was an incredibly profitable deal. How stupid do they think the shareholders are?? Really stunning, the lack of competence in management. Not just the lack of foresight but the lack of hindsight as well.
Amazing collection of idiots in the management of the company. No wonder it is in this state after finding a super large oil field.
Lots of oil + stupid management = shareholder losses
sabyam,
Smoozing 5 star trips to South America and generally wining and dining with the bankers I would hope.
Does anyone have an idea what is the admin and misc expense of $5.8mn in 19H1? That number seems very high in comparison with the company opex (which is ridiculously high with 20 ppl on staff doing God knows what) and with historical spends under this amount.
what is Sam doing with the shareholders' money? Splurging while he still can??