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Wonder what Sam "Sobel" Moody and Stu'y do all day?
1. Plan for the weekend: "Gymkhana, chukkas or Cote d'azur Stu'y?"
2. Spin a roulette wheel with little companies we can buy if OM pays out.
3. Party like Jordan Belfort and Donnie Azoff
4. Keep ringing Tony Durrant and asking: "Are we there yet?" Then crack up laughing.
5. Keep ringing Gideon Tadmor and asking: "Oi vey, are we there yet?" Then crack up laughing.
6. Look at each other when the phone rings and go "I answered last time, your turn"
7. Play rock, paper, scissors for who makes the drinks after 12
8. Throw darts for next bonus number always using 5 darts for cash and 6 for share allocation.
(-:
On a more serious note: Go visit ADFN its like a movie set over there (-:
Rgds Sft
The unfortunate thing is , that this management did not build in safeguards in the event of non performance by PMO . This was a fatal mistake and for the life of me I can`t understand why they failed to do this.
I guess though it`s on par with the rest of their performance.
Good question; where has all the cash gone?.
I was shocked when RKH revealed they last year spent $19.3 m on pre development for SEALION; and then we have that $3.9 m AND the 'up to $10m' to pay. If I had known that spending had ballooned so seriously I think I would have held back on some share buys.
RKH have to survive 3.5 years from any sanction date to first oil revenues.
Not going to happen with our current resources .
We need a huge award.
But; are PMO going to sanction in next two years or more?
If you listen again to DURRANTS last interview with Malcy you will hear him make it quite clear; the company's priority up to 2025 is debt reduction ; he set out a series of hoped for numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxkAN6Tcll0
From 24 mins he makes it clear that spending on development projects will be very much on the back burner.
Its entirely logical because PMO have $4 billion worth of tax losses in UK waters to take advantage of.
Its those tax advantages that attracts the likes of APACHE and CHRYSAOR.
God forbid either takes over PMO because I am certain SEALION will be dumped.
Evidence of PMO's NS fixation can be found in the mooted BP acquisitions; solely designed to make the most of the giant tax losses. In a lower POO environment those losses are most helpful.
Further evidence of where PMO will likely preferentially spend any spare development capital can be found in the 3 new licences PMO very recently won;
Extract from 3rd September 2020 RNS;
"We are delighted to have been awarded the block next to our Catcher Area fields as well as the blocks adjacent to the Tolmount field, given our pre-investment in the extended 3D survey there. These awards provide significant opportunities to create value and to extend the life of these core assets."
Guess where any free development capital will be spent?.
Its all very nice that The Falklands have low taxes, BUT; they can not compete with NO taxes.?
PMO are laser focused on the NS and debt reduction for next few years.
Chances of SEALION sanction in 2021 are, imo 100;1
Chances in 2022 , imo 50;1
RKH MUST receive a really large arbitration payout.
Apart from that lucky 1st drill everything this lot have touched has been a disaster. Where has all the dosh gone ? 100s of millions down the toilet.
Totally agree Cyan2, the Egyptian loss was a disaster,instead of giving the company a steady income it was flogged off at cut rate to bolster a sagging bank balance .
Egyptian production doubled whilst negotiations were taking place and by the looks of things, production will expand even further, could have been a nice little asset. Remember they shared a director between RKH and UOG and he must have been aware of the potential.
Good afternoon Fuddstone
The half year results are a mixture; part horror story part ludicrous fantasy.
"Should other opportunities, which are value accretive, and which will strengthen the Company and enhance the likelihood of the Sea Lion development reaching a positive sanction decision, be identified then these will be considered by the Board on an individual basis."
RKH have $13.4 m in cash to survive until end of 2022; its ludicrous to think these guys are looking to buy another asset just after they sold the last of the Egyptian assets; utterly ridiculous.
The loss of the Egyptian assets is a tragedy necessitated by the excessive spending elsewhere.
Rkh have not got the spare cash to buy anything extra; except may be a new broom so MOODY can sweep the office himself instead of paying cleaners.
The half year results still include reference to a three phase SEALION development! HELLOOOO; PMO AND RKH have just written off hundreds of millions ;
"US$222.2 million one-off non-cash impairment, based on a decision, in line with the operator, to write off the historic exploration costs associated with the resources which will not be developed as part of the Sea Lion Phase 1 project"
The Merco press understood what a write off REALLY means
hTTps://en.mercopress.com/2020/08/18/falkland-islands-and-oil-companies-new-approach-to-stranded-assets
"Premier Oil Plc, Rockhopper's partner, suspended work on Sea Lion earlier this year, and on July 15 wrote off US$ 200 million of investment because later phases looked unlikely to happen."
You only write off spending when you have no realistic prospect of ever getting pay back.
Excellent post Cyan2, so much for Nigeys pumping ,lets keep our feet on the ground and like all holders I sincerely hope OB comes across for us , however what this inept crowd will do with it is another story.
I did note that in the RNS they were looking at other projects , I shudder to think.
If NAVITAS signs RKH are indeed left with 30%.
The Egyptian assets were sold because of huge pre 1.1.20 SEALION bills.
Closing cash balance (30 June 2020) $14.5 m
Without the Egypt $11.5m proceeds , RKH would have had just $3m left on 30th June.
The numbers show just how weak RKH has become with eye-watering $9.4m SEALION expenditure in the first 6 months of 2020 .
This can probably be at least partly explained by referring back to the full year results;
8.4.20 full year results extract
"During the first quarter of 2020, the Company paid US$3.9 million of Sea Lion costs related to the period prior to 1 January 2020. Whilst timing remains unclear, further such costs, estimated at up to US$10.0 million and included in the balance sheet under current liabilities, could become payable in the next 12 months."
Of the $9.4m we can subtract the historical $3.9m leaving $5.5m. The half year results do not make it clear whether the majority of that $5.5 is part of the 'up to $10m' due for prior to 1.1.20 pre-development SEALION expenditure. So is there 'up to' another $4.5m to pay?
A possible answer may be found in reviewing these numbers;
Lets consider the numbers since 30.6.20 when the cash balance stood at $14.5m
The remaining UOG shares were sold in August bringing in $4m; add and that makes $18.5m
We are told that on 1st September RKH had $13.4 m
The implication being that $5.1 m was spent in the three months to 1st September. Its possible a large chunk of what was owed has been paid off. If you look at the "current liabilities; other payable s" you will see that $7.873m was owed at 30.6.20
My best estimate is there's likely something over $3m more to pay in pre 1.1.20 costs which RKH are still liable for.
RKH reassure that they have sufficient cash to survive to at least the end of 2022.
I think that looks optimistic.
$5.3m was spent on admin and 'miscellaneous' in the first 6 months of 2020. These numbers for just 6 months are It still far too high. Is it any wonder the share price has fallen when people digest these numbers?
A very large arbitration award is VITAL
The only good news in the results is that NAVITAS are still interested. If they walk; imo SEALION will never go ahead.
Our best chance of ever seeing SEALION developed relies , imo, on PMO fending off the vultures and DURRANT remaining in charge of PMO. I think any takeover of PMO will see SEALION abandoned.
OH you saw the value did you that`s funny because....
you claim RKH has 40% of Sea Lion? not correct subject to Navitus completion of buy in they will have 30% ,so that`s one part of your valuation reduced.
Secondly no one knows about arbitration whether they will win or how much they get if they win, not something anyone would consider in valuing a company,
Thirdly a management that has underperformed at many levels and have overpaid themselves whilst doing so, now rhat is something you should consider relevant Nigey
fuddlestone
first time bought this, saw the value. so I'm not Nigoil.
whoever that maybe
I think you are Nigoil
fuddlestone
nothing wrong with your understanding, there must be a a reason why company chose to sell UOG shares.
No company has 30% of Sea Lion not 40% subject to Navitus del being finalised , if it does get finalised , try doing a little homework.
Secondly the statement by the board of
" Board expects the Company to be fully funded through to at least the end of 2022, assuming Sea Lion sanction occurs during that time" should be taken with a large dose of salt, PMO may hit them with a few more payables , also remember their statement on Egyptian UOG deal . telling us it was part of new Greater Med operation they were building then 4 months later sold the lot at below market.
Yes you can take their word ok where you take it is a different matter.
so this company is in decline??
no debt,
£13M Cash
40% of SEALION asset
arbitration worth over £270m
phase 1 funded 250M barrels,
120k BOPD =£1.75B PA to (using $40 per barrel
correction on 120k BOPD X $40 X 365 = $1.75Billion
so this company has,
no debt,
£13M Cash
40% of SEALION asset
arbitration worth over £270m
phase 1 funded 250M barrels,
120k BOPD =£249M PA to (using $40 per barrel)
OK Earl....
you said "I see value here. don't want to be out when rns lands. nobody knows exactly when, but will come soon.
Dyor.
So you don`t know exactly when so how do you know it`s soon?
How do you know they even have an award ?
If they have how much will it be ?
So you have bought in fine good for you so why entice others to a stock in terminal decline?
what's wrong with the rns, like I said I'm confident this will be significantly higher than today's SP in coming days/weeks.
That's my understanding of the rns.
we all have different ways to value companies. for me this looks bargain. I GLA
"the potential of the company"....FFS! Is this fella for real?
The trouble is Earl, a lot of us read all of the previous RNSs and 'bought in', only to watch our investments drip away. Based on that, why would the latest RNS be any different?
Read the rns, and base your own thoughts on the potential of this company.
I'm just pointing out. I am confident, it does not mean you should, we all have different ways of interpretation of the world around us.
not different in stock markets either.
Thanks for that Earl...I'll now base my investment decisions on what you (or anyone else) suddenly posts on here.
let's concentrate on the rns and what's to come, rather than branding this with the same old saying of pump.
at this price, #Rkh has attracted buyers like myself.
I see value here. don't want to be out when rns lands. nobody knows exactly when, but will come soon.
Dyor
taken from rns
Corporate and financial
· Disposal of Rockhopper Egypt Pty Limited completed in February 2020
· Proceeds of US$4.0 million realised from the sale of the Group's entire shareholding in United Oil & Gas plc in August 2020
· Initiatives implemented to further materially reduce corporate G&A costs - US$2.7 million (H1 2020): a further 30% cost reduction target has been set
· US$222.2 million one-off non-cash impairment, based on a decision, in line with the operator, to write off the historic exploration costs associated with the resources which will not be developed as part of the Sea Lion Phase 1 project
· Cash resources of US$13.4 million as at 1 September 2020 - Board expects the Company to be fully funded through to at least the end of 2022, assuming Sea Lion sanction occurs during that time
summary of latest rns 15 September
#RKH
?$13.4 MILLION CASH SEPT 2020
?NO DEBT
?£23.95 MILLION MCAP
?40% OF SEALION ASSET
?ARBITRATION MONIES DUE COULD BE UP TO $275 MILLION + INTEREST
?FARM IN COMPLETION TARGETED FOR Q4
?PHASE 1 FULLY FUNDED
250 MMBBLS
OPEX $25
120k BOPD
https://t.co/6MFQqp9Phz https://t.co/kw7NgZFepN
this has been overlooked IMO.