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When I bought my first RKH tranche at 08:43 ( https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/for-investors/trades?securityidaqse=RKH.GB ) of 20,000 RKH shares, there were only 2,000 RKH shares on the offer, but a large amount on the Bid, Henrygroucho,....I had to pay a premium (email@example.com) to get them, the two tranches I bought later in the day, I got cheaper (firstname.lastname@example.org), bought directly into two ISA's,....now hold 80% of the RKH in two ISA's, so will have 20% to bed & ISA at some point,....holding all of our BOR shareholdings in two ISA's,...so I have very sticky hands.
The Navitas deal allows PMO/Harbour to kick out Navitas and take their place on the same terms. This would give PMO/Harbour a 70% working interest with the free carry replaced by an interest free loan. While you could look at this as a scandalous sell out by Uncle Sam, I would rather have 30% of a Producing Sealion than 40% of oil doomed to sit under the Atlantic. The upside is still substantial.
What I don’t understand is why Sam gave away the free carry on Phase 2 and some of the follow ons as not needed to make Phase 1 fly.
I also remember you rpoodle,....bought RKH shareholdings back, the second half of last year myself,....increased our RKH shareholding today by 40%, as I also noted the article that Mogger posted (reference to Italian government lawyer),....I wish you good fortune, with your investment choices.
Rpoodle....I remember you from many years ago and therefore of course anyone with half a brain would have to agree with you with regards to our criminally incompetent and self rewarding board. I have written off my original tens of thousands investment years ago in my head....its worth 8.5 k at todays SP!....so I'm in until the bitter end whatever. It will certainly be in spite of our directors not because of, if I get a return!
Hi Stevo. Yep; I’m aware of all of that. Thus my comment: “ Whatever the case, though, I won’t be hanging around”. The management at Rockhopper are shockingly hopeless. Even if Rockhopper won the full amount, I strongly expect that they would just **** away the money over a few years.
Absolutely Stevo. $660m giveaway of carry totally amazing, let alone the ridiculously high cash burn. But since Navitas not yet signed, presumably the original deal still stands? Will Harbour not sign Navitas and strike a better deal with RKH? The way I see it, PROVIDING SL goes ahead, RKH is now at bargain price in any scenario. IF SL does not go ahead we just get the OM payout which could be zero, and that's what is keeping the price at 9p.
It is highly probable that RKH will receive a favourable outcome from the arbitration, the real question is quantum. As I recall, RKH have submitted a claim for costs incurred of Approx $26m and a loss of profits of $250m. If we are reimbursed for costs plus interest (say $40m), we will end up with $20m after funders have taken their slice. This will allow Sam and team to keep their noses in trough for a few more years but provides no real capacity for anything else. We might see a modest bump up in share price. We need $100m plus to make any real difference and remember Sam and team have blown through over $250m post farm out to PMO and have now given away their $700m development carry. Meanwhile Navitas pick up 30% for free. Blows your mind.
I’m clearly insane, but I just bought back in (not much, mind, just 25,000 shares). This is despite my firmly held belief that Rockhopper will not survive to first production in the Falklands (if that ever even happens), that the management at Rockhopper is among the worst on AIM (and that’s quite a feat), and that their current cash position is not sustainable. Instead, my bet is solely rooted in the ICSID case related to Ombrina Mare, and the recent two pieces of news relevant to that case: 1) the lawyer representing the Italian government was interviewed recently, and said a judgement will be arriving “soon” (thanks to Mogger for finding the article). If Sam had said this I would pay it no heed at all, but the Italian government’s lawyer is a different story entirely. 2) Italy now has a technocrat in as PM (Mario Draghi), increasing the chances (at least a little) that Italy will honour the court’s decision—especially compared with some of the earlier administrations led by populists. And then there’s the basic risk-reward calculation. On the top-side, if rockhopper won the entire amount that they are asking for, the cash would be around four times the current market cap. Even half the amount would still see the share price at least double, I’d guess. On the downside, if they lose the case, I’d think the near term hit would not be much more than 30%.
Whatever the case, though, I won’t be hanging around, whatever direction the court case goes.
Best of luck to all, as always, whatever investment path you choose.
Suppose in a small community people just move around jobs all the time. Hope he is on the ball for the big changes heading their way! If Harbour pull the trigger that is!
Seems PMO is getting gradually re-rated in expectation of Harbour entity coming in to being. Brentl has been over $51 since 1st of Jan, oil companies are going to be posting bumper cash flows with all the cut backs on spending and streamlining of their companies this past year, or should I say past FEW years!
I am surprised it's stayed above $55 for some time, UK and world economies in general are not out of the woods yet with Covid, they are no where near running on 4 cylinders yet, not even 1, but the oil price stays high. Can't help thinking when things really start to open up, Oil will be $70+ in a blink!
Anyway the only effect that has on us is making Harbour look at SL more closely as it becomes very profitable indeed, but live it too late and service companies will be in demand and costs go up, thus profitability decreases!
Thanks Mogger, seems like the License renewal in May isn’t going to be a problem!
Roll on end of March and Harbour coming in to being. PMO when they are absorbed will, with oil in the mid $60 be bringing a lot of cash no doubt, an unexpected amount when you consider oil was in the $30-$40 range when the deal was announced! Possibly $200m+ extra for a start!