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Goldman, UBS and Berenberg have all provided a downgrade. I did not tune into the presentation yesterday, but report of nervousness will resonate badly with analysts.
My portfolio has (so far) kept its head above water this month in common with Octobers in years past. November may see the start of a Santa rally but my focus now is trying to gauage where the market will have its focus for 2022.
Mr Math, i did the exact same thing. I lost a fair chunk on sirius also. But there are some great dividend plays still around. Great companies like rio when they are on sale, you buy buy buy.
im not intending on retiring for another 20 years so lets hope the new strat works well. Good luck fallen sirius soldier.
Ballio
"I shall continue to add to ASML, RIO and many other holdings as finances permit."
I'll be adding too. This is still one of my biggest earners, having been in it for some years. I have never sold any of my RIO shares and have only added over time. So when a good long term share like RIO dips, I get very very interested. Switched to an investment based strategy several years ago (after the Sirius Minerals debacle) and have never looked back. Much more profitable and easier to sleep at night.
Alas, I made big losses on the bloody AIM share scums, you knew. I do not think I am gambling. Leverage is not bad unless you use it to the limit. In order to short sale, traders have to use leverage anyway. Maybe you don't like short sale, but legendary investor Warren Buffett welcomes short sellers. According to him, short sellers are necessary correctives who 'sniff out' wrongdoing or problematic companies in the market.
The SP of ASML is too high for me to understand, let alone to put my hard earned cash into it.
Did you refer to the book, Motley Fool : Make Your Child a Millionaire Paperback – 22 Sept. 2000 by Alan Oscroft (Author)? I heard about it before. Not sure whether it is worth to buy a book from Motley Fool.
What is your financial problem? Investing caves? Or just more BS from you?
Barnet - I am not qualified to give any financial advice whatsoever.
You have not actually understood that many here are trying to help you. I am an investor and don't care about short term movement or the noise spouted through conjecture, and the typical waffle that the BB communities have. (For 10 years I contributed as The Troglodyte on Interactive Investor followed by 19 years on ADVFN as Erogenous Jones) - waffle is familiar and I can generally spot BS from a country mile. I detest those that claim to be short - somehow, they never (apparently) make a mistake and always have a winning trade. More BS as far as I am concerned.
You seem obsessed with GAMBLING and using leverage to claw back your losses made in the past. You seem to have not understood why you lost money only that you want to chuck good money after bad to "get it all back". Well, sunshine, that is simply not going to happen. You will just continue to make the same mistakes and although you might from time to time, pick a winner, you are impatient and that is not beneficial to investing.
I have provided already 5 companies that you would do well to really understand and learn about. By all means use candlesticks, tea leaves, every tool in the limited arsenal that you have thus far discovered, but if you don't understand how to read a balance sheet or understand geopolitical or have trust in the managers, then you will be taken to the cleaners every time.
You at least have admitted that you have got it wrong. Did all the companies you chose to place a bet on go bust, did you get cold feet and cut your losses, or perhaps (and this is my hunch) you were forced to cover losses called from margin calls?
I shall continue to add to ASML, RIO and many other holdings as finances permit. Have you ordered a copy of the book that I suggested?
Barnet
Thanks mate
But coming here and say you don't touch ASML without giving ant reasoning really doesn't add any credit to your post.
I think of complete opposite reasons are really simple
The revenue set to double within a year, battery and EV car are going to increase all need chips of various kind ON TOP of their current customers and markets..
Bang on the money with potential to double within the next 8-12 months
Perhaps you need to closer research to understand why that is one of the very few stocks around with huge potentials of growth OUTPERFORMING their index by far.
You are right about the banks share in the coming months
I would buy and hold them for 12 months
Any local one to UK like Natwest and Lloyds with less global exposures are going to boom in the next 6-12 months
Going back to Rio, I believe if you are paitient enough come March/April you will be above 6500 easy above 20%profit from current level in that time frame that is great while collecting nice divi.
I added some and will add again if drops
The world including China will be up and running starting in couple of months and vaccine success is truly stunishing and remember the tablet version coming and advance vaccine soon to be out.
To me it is truly amazing you have a opportunity of entry at this level for Rio. Nice P/E and I think copper price will be above 5 soon and stay above that figure soon, simply Rio assets productions are not on copper suddenly worth a lot more. I understand Iron ore yet to pick up and it will but don't under estimate copper contributions.
IMHO
DYOR
GL
The iron core production was down 8% compared with Q3 2020, which was another bearish signal.
I would not touch ASML. I don't want to stay late for watching US stocks.
I found three shares that were classic, high BV, high FCF, but high risk and in late night trading time. I gave up in the end as these shares just were not for me. I need to find stocks that have simple business model, operation easy to be understood, and have better to do with my professional experience. I think stocks in banking and property sectors have some near future opportunities.
The monkey was on the money by wearing wire hats, nothing wrong with that. How can they communicate with monkey language? Would Mrs Lee be willing to pay for that as well? Be in and out and turn around, which are very common plays by big blondes in the UK. Females have a lot of protection legally and financially, so are independent and freelancing. Single mother is pretty prevalent in this country.
I am not mainly educated with English language, and primarily trained to communicate with numbers, formulas and drawings, so not that good at English language. Well, I still can judge by details that someone is a non-native poster.
Do you have any recommendations on UK stocks?
If you recall, Barnet, I remarked on a company called ASML. there has been a decent comment today
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/chip-machine-maker-asml-will-grow-into-a-500-billion-business.html
So, while chips are in short supply, once made, they are very cheap. This is a classic "Warren Buffet" type company with the advantage of monopoly economics, leader of the pack, very high price of entry to compete so a huge economic moat. There are not many shares around and 100 shares is going to leave a bit of a throbbing feeling in the wallet. It is the sort of company in which to own shares and forget about them for 40 years or more.
Have you discovered your 5 shares from the myriad available on the London Stock Exchange or would you like a couple from the Nasdaq to consider?
Alas
I rarely say this having been a successful nvestors for 20 years or so
But I truly bow to your post and sharing your story and knowledge so humbly and so nicely.
I agree with everything you said here and it is all about those accumulation funds and able to be decipline to add every months.
The trouble is there are many choices and not all of them do well. That comes down to proper research and balance of risk/reward exposures you like to have.
At the moment I feel I can still take more risks for another 15 years.
I am not even going to bother to reply to Barnet as I truly think he is not following what is going on here and I hope he just read your past posts twice at least as seems the penny not dropping
I have made my break with stocks that I understood well and research well and most importantly HOLD them for the reasons. . Example of that for me is ATYM which I joined 10 years ago and just kept adding knew it is a mine which is in safe location and will come good and it did. I am more than triple my money so far and believe me not sold a single share. Currently sitting on massive profit there.
That is only one share, and always down well with FTSE and Thrusts and kept adding as you said.
For tracking index do you have any recommendations ? I don't like technology stocks at the moment but health and commodity looking good do you have any favourites?
You talked about your losers stocks how about the winners ?
My view on Rio is very clear which I shared earlier added loads and I believe this and commodities will be surging shortly. Rio is not all about Iron as you know and other growing markets they are influencing and potential take over of smaller miners always on the car with healthy cash they are sitting on. IMHO
copper will be a winer and I bet my horse 10 years ago on ATYM and I think it will get to £7 in the next 2 years if not sooner. That will be 7 baggers for me ONLY because I hold while other ran.
Not suggesting for any shares of course so the reason always key to understand and fully research your stock and keep up with your research if you are managing yourself.
Currently love BP and Anglo American as well as some of the recovery shares like RR. TUI and IAG which I just calmly add and simply hold. My exposure to RR. Is massive and only in the past 8 months or so build a very nice avarage there and not sold a single share.
Thanks for sharing your wisdom sir.
Much appreciated and very much useful
Not in the least professional. Have picked more winners than losers.
Losers include, but not limited to Marconi, Cenes, Torotrak, Graphene Nanochem, Velocys, Tungsten, Albert Fisher, Claims Direct and many others. At the risk of boring others….
Setting aside £50 each month from 1979 and increasing it when I could was the answer. I saved up for 20 months before I purchased my first holding, Shell Transport and Trading. Dividends were and still are reinvested. The discipline I had then was that the minimum investment is £1,000. Nowadays it is £10,000 per bargain. Mistakes are still made but generally of timing.
No-one gets rich unless profits are taken. Skill in selling is much more important than buying. I tend to sell once the attraction for owning shares has changed, sentiment globally has changed or there is a better nvestment elsewhere. I have sheltered everything in ISA wrapper.
So…. Where has my money been invested? Well, I sold 30% of my holding in Nvidia and placed the proceeds into ASML and Varta. I disposed of my holdings in Bovis and Persimmon to buy shares in RIO and double my holding in Montanaro UK. I’ve also added to my holding in Ibstock.
The world is heading towards renewables, but don’t forget that the stone age did not end for want of stone. This, of course is not investment advice, simply an old bloke who has accumulated quite a lot of money through living like a church mouse and not borrowing any money. I faced foreclosure when interest rates on mortgages rose to 16% or 17%, I forget now and am now concentrating in sheltering what I can to minimise IHT liability. I have yet to inherit, but through house price inflation I am expecting to exceed the £2m threshold in the next 4 years. Thus, I am making gifts to my children via a trust that I established in 2015. I can shelter £325,000 every 7 years and the trust has an allowance equal to the IHT basic allowance.
Phew…. I am sorry to witter on, but it seems to me that you have no strategy whatsoever. So, here is my tip…. Set aside £50 each month in a low cost tracker. Doesn’t matter which, but get into the habit of putting money aside. While that builds up, focus on businesses that you believe have a future, that you understand how they make money. If you can explain to me that bitcoin is anything other than a solution to a mathematical problem that is irrelevant, you probably need to visit a shrink. You might though wish to consider what is needed to “create” the solution. Yep, computer chips. Since the lack of these has caused motor makers supply issue, that was my reason for ASML.
Good luck. Get hold of a copy of “How to Make Your Child a Millionairre”. It is one of the few books worth reading by the Motley Fool before they lost the plot. It is out of print, so scour the 2nd hand book sites
Thanks for taking the time to write back. I has been an on and off amateur trader never making money from the stock markets since 1997. Never believe in long term investment in stocks. My original plan is to buy another house once make enough profits, but now just want to get my lost money back from the market. My previous boss wanted to buy me a car for the job purpose, but I managed to find myself a better job instead. About ten years later, he went to grey yard and that mentioned car probably already went to scrap yard. I used to be the only short man working with big blondes surrounding, thanks to my chilly calm character to be able to do the job. You sounds like a professional relative to stock markets, right?
Barnet, not sure how to put this without sounding patronising ...... but here goes:
Do not confuse investing with trading. Investors usually have a strategy to grow their assets by investing in a range of instruments in domestic and international stock markets. Weightings influence the growth (or decline) in value and it makes sense to add to your winners and ditch your losers. Think of the market as a see-saw, there will be a larger movement based on the weight (or in the case of investment, money) exposed to stock market forces.
Traders on the other hand are interested in the short term and are thus reliant on volatility. 10 minutes might be considered long term for some whereas 5 years for an investor might be short term. Trader claims should be taken with a large handful of salt. Most are small time punters and focus on a single company so do not have a portfolio, merely a pecuniary interest that could be either long or short and oscillate between both. Their is reliant on patterns, volumes and sentiment that ises machine learning to place their bet - for that is all that they appear to be - algorithim based betting under the guise of "investment".
Momentum does play a part - if a company has a share price that is in a defined direction and has been for say 12 months, then there is pretty reasonable chance to expect the trend to continue in the absence of either news or external event. Company fortunes rise and fall and I have no problem in buying shares in a company at or close to its peak.
So, my interest in RIO is two fold - for myself/wife and for the portfolio that I am managing for my elder son. The bulk of my portfolio is managed on a discretionary basis and I simply receive a statement each month to confirm the capital values, stock movement and cash generated. Shares in RIO were purchased for me in April this year. Those for elder son were bought a few days ago. The investment for me is underwater, but for son, well, they are up and running.
Ask yourself some basic questions such as what do you want from your investments (Capital growth, dividend income etc)? What level of risk are you willing to accept? What is your timescale? What is your investment goal? What are you going to do once you have reached that goal?
The goal that I set myself is simply to beat the market. The market has given investors an average 7% return since 1900 so that capital will double every 14 years. My long term average is improving, but there have been years when I have been down a frightening percentage. Since 2015 my returns have been 10.87%, 26.99%, 32.39%, 36.45%, 41.64%, 14.35% and 10.47% for 2021. This year has been a little odd as I have withdrawn some cash to buy a new car last month.
BERENBERG CUTS RIO TINTO PRICE TARGET TO 5,400 (6,900) PENCE - 'HOLD'
GOLDMAN CUTS RIO TINTO PRICE TARGET TO 5,400 (6,910) PENCE - 'NEUTRAL'
BERENBERG CUTS BHP GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 2,200 (2,300) PENCE - 'HOLD'
BERENBERG RAISES ANGLO AMERICAN PRICE TARGET TO 4,100 (3,900) PENCE - 'BUY'
GOLDMAN CUTS ANGLO AMERICAN PRICE TARGET TO 3,700 (4,300) PENCE - 'BUY'
GOLDMAN RAISES GLENCORE PRICE TARGET TO 470 (430) PENCE - 'BUY'
BERENBERG CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 2,200 (2,300) PENCE - 'BUY'
JEFFERIES CUTS POLYMETAL PRICE TARGET TO 1,725 (1,900) PENCE - 'BUY'
JEFFERIES CUTS FRESNILLO PRICE TARGET TO 1,280 (1,300) PENCE - 'BUY'
GOLDMAN RAISES ANTOFAGASTA PRICE TARGET TO 1,750 (1,700) PENCE - 'NEUTRAL'
Thanks for all your replies, I am still holding, not sure to get out today or not. Today's rising is more relative to the whole mining sector.
Have a look at British Steel, its history tells you that there is not much demand of steel in the UK. Property bubble in China is in the beginning of bursting, I believe. Steel products are much more expensive than concrete products, thus much less chances of being chosen in the construction industry.
RIO mainly relies on iron ore mining, the steel manufacture factories and the economy in China. Is that good enough?
Maybe, maybe not. It will be interesting to see if we have a breakout today. I expect this afternoon to possibly reverse from about this point (4939p), due to this being a resistance line over the last 2 weeks. Maybe there will be a drop tomorrow from fear around the Non_Farm jobs report, but people still need materials and there is probably a back-log of demand due to the pandemic, so dropping much further from this point I think is unlikely as we will be going lower than the height of 2019. Clearly a drop is still possible, to maybe 4367p or so, but I personally doubt it. China will not allow a crash in their economy. Their regulation changes around birth rate restrictions will ensure a continued growing population to support their aging population. A can't see demand for materials decreasing.
Investors tend not to worry too much about short term price movements - all part and parcel of the nature of markets - but they do tend to have structure to their portfolio. Structure can include exposure to commodities, energy, IT, pharmaceuticals, financials etc and there is a weighting between those that have the potential to grow very quickly and those that are of high quality and are not too impacted in periods of downturn.
Yes, there are headwinds and you have articulated some of them but although past Octobers (for me) have been a flat month, the deepest bear markets kicked off in October - Wall Street Crash 1929, Black Tuesday 1987, Asian Financial Markets 1997 and although Lehman Bros collapsed in September 2008, markets took a dive throughout October.
Bear markets tend to be of relatively short duration, on average 18 months but there are always going to be some companies that do better than others, even though the value of investment might have fallen. The market this year has been torn between value and growth and has a nervousness about day to day business.
The year began with such optimism with a change of Government in USA, approval for vaccine(s) for a coronavirus that has crippled economies and the glimmers of a resumption to our normal lives. Most recently, though the prospect for inflation or worse, stagflation competes with climate change for attention. Media is having a feeding frenzy but sensational news headlines don't provide solution.
RIO is a quality miner and the shares are down a little today. Investing is not a race. Stock markets consistently reward investors over years not days. If holding RIO or any company for that matter is uncomfortable for you, then sell. I am happy to add to my holding even if the price remains weak. I am though beginning to sit on some cash in anticipation of a worsening October.
The chart shows bearish signals, current property crisis in China neither demand more steel production nor iron ore importation, and most importantly, energy crisis and green agenda is putting pressure on steel price which results in less demand.
It is just in the middle of the bearish journey. After having done some research, I think I need to cut loss and get out of this share, rather than hold or average down. It is hopeless to make profits from it now, with all what has happened recently, what I has found out and what is the minimum expectation. Unless the situations could be changed quickly, I would not get back in and might just watch from the sidelines.