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The late dividend payments of around 11.5p on the 9% preference shares look like to be paid on 7 April , even their price is moving up. They have stated that all being well dividend payments will then normalise to 4.5p end of June and 4.5p end of December, so there could be a 20.5p a share divi by 30 Dec 24. I am in on preference shares but not on these.
This has risen around 10% this week. Have I missed some info? Tipped by somebody in the press?
Yea, Evil knows the Directors well so knows the score but like many before he's been a buyer much higher up the food chain and will be 'doin' money if he's still in.
I was.... very stupidly bullish on RE some years ago and threw in the towel. I'm back in on a joint but 250 that looks a stretch given their unlikely to be making money at $980 given the Indonesian Govt propensity to use palm companies as their own piggbank
You may have read Virgin are flying to NY on 100 % sustainable veg oils
having got UK clearance. Given the obsession with carbon neutrals etc this should be good for palm oil in the years to come as REA have a direct route into local mrkts.
Celebrity trader Evil Knievil follows REA and he has provided a brief but positive update in his most recent column. He also stated that Panmure have put a target price of £2.50 a share on the stock.
Like the deal loosening the strangle hold of debt which has crippled REA for far too many years. Its been a longtime comin' I just wonder it might be too late cpo prices being where they are.....whatever REA is on a much sounder footing even on significantly reduced acerage.
If MP Evans play their cards right they will be able to pick up REA for cents on the USD.
I take it that Odey is done here?
You have to say REA come results day rarely disappoint. I give you...
* too much rain
* weak cpo prices
* tractor stuck in mud
* payback loans to group
much lower
* sig exch rate loss
* fall in cpo extraction rates
Now for the bad news....ffs!
MP Evans tipped in todays Mail on Sunday.
Cheers no bull I didn't know any of that...still intend to hold just in case we get another spike up from 150-200....ya never know!
Thanks JL. It seems to be up even more than I thought. On a merger between REA and MPE, somebody told me, can't remember which thread it was on, maybe it was on the AEP discussion thread, that the foreign controlled oil palm cultivators can't have more than 100,000 hectares. That figures because if there are any profits to be had from economies of scale, the Indonesians want to reserve those profits for themselves, just like they don't allow foreigners to earn risk free profits from rent scraping (the reason our coal equity interest was converted into a loan interest, I wonder, all so that our profit potential would be capped if coal prices rocketed, which they duly did - the profit we should have got has been, in effect, re-directed by regulation to an indigenous company, perhaps?). Still despite that, it is all looking good for a target price of back to £2 except for their change of capital allocation plans - I thought they were going to prioritise net debt reduction, but now it seems maintenance capex and expansion capex are more of a priority: the latter two objectives will maybe deliver slower share price appreciation, I wonder, compared with prioritising net debt reduction - I'll have to ask about this at the next AGM and the reasons for the change of heart. Maybe the priorities change as palm oil prices move all over the place, making one strategy better than another?
Spot on nobull....up 10. Jeez this is becoming beyond a joke with these bloody adverts blocking posts!
Agreed nobull and justone but as we well know we are always at the mercy of a rapacious Govt bleeding the palm companies whenever they need money. Its a drawback investing in this sector and unlikely to change anytime soon.
It grieves me having been invested here for so many years that Anglo, well perhaps not Anglo but certainly MPE & Rea haven't merged assets to form a stronger company, that surely would have benefitted both sets of shareholders in the long'term. Probably out of the question now but an opportunity missed imo.
"the rise being due to net debt reduction." could have been better stated as "the rise in market cap of the ords being equal to fall in net debt"
Disappointing net debt isn't coming down as fast as they previously expected (no figure provided, so it can't be good?). No. of coal shipments exceeded my expectations. Prospect of sand sales is a nice surprise. There could be a write-back of some of the interest previously written off on the loans to the stone and coal interests, I wonder? Really good news they produced more CPO despite the replanting programme. I won't be surprised if these go up 10p on this. I expect these will be back to £2+ in about 18 months' time, assuming enterprise value remains the same, the rise being due to net debt reduction.
Good update. Odey are here to make money, and see value at this price. They are going to be good for us shareholders, by holding the directors feet to the fire. They have been too comfortable. The company has a tail wind in all areas and Odey knows it, and can smell the money. I think it could get exciting, and I am sure the directors won’t like the steady increase in Odey ownership, it should put a floor under the price. Interesting if others see the same opportunity.
No nos but the overall tone sounds positive and replanting after years of zero activity. Oday increasing as to what purpose? No dividends outside of the preferred.....Results due April.
9% cum pref + arrears + h/y dividend to be paid 2/12/2022.
Less than 12,000 traded says it all imo. These days vols and bargains dealt are so much less than days gone by its a wonder the stock is still quoted except on a charitable basis for the odd seller fed up they didn't bale out higher up the food chain and needs to cash out.
The mrkt cannot be much bothered so I certainly am not going to delve into the nos suffice to say they seem okish.
One thing I'm certain of 180 won't be revisited in my lifetime. Thank you and goodnight.
Why the drop today? Have I missed an rns?
Starting to look interesting again. Despite the obvious drawbacks to holding REA. At anywhere near 100 or lower they must be a reasonable buy.
With cpo around $1090 we may be turning a small profit but coal and stone may save the day helping our car crash balance sheet in reducing debts.
Will the coal and stone operating nos cover the likely break-even or losses on our palm profit numbers at the half way stage? Cpo at ($1070) (down on last year) have been on a one way slump since Wikodo poked his nose into other people's business.
Reduced demand at the upcoming peak (Diwali) season will weigh further on prices now expected to fall through $1000 level during Q3 as Indonesia attempts to reduce inventory by scrapping the export levy and could also remove a domestic sales rule for exporters in a belated effort to boost prices.
Though REA sell into the domestic mrkt (not subjected to levy or duty) we are inevitably impacted by global prices resulting in prices broadly in line with cif(r). Until supply & demand revert to the normal cpo prices are likely to remain depressed.
London palm co prices differ widely, REA is 13% down ytd (off a 6 month 200p high) with Mpe flat and Anglo up 26%.
Morning all.
What the mrkt may not have taken account of is the rapid reduction in debt thank to coal shipments probably to the tune of a couple of mill a month could see debt at £100m sometime late next year?
Odey dumping a slug of REA didn't help the price or sentiment which for better or worse is at an all-time low thanks to a meddlesome Govt and a string of other negatives. I should add but likely will have a better opportunity down the road if the cpo bears keep selling.
EV? Perhaps NV (no value) is more appropriate as REA (118) fell 8p and cpo $150 on the week. That takes the cpo price back to break even for the year.
Ytd
Sp's
-----
Anglo 787 (+12%)
Mpe 864 (+7%)
Rea 118 (-16%)
52wk
High
--------
Anglo (926)
Mpe (1085)
Rea (200)
Indonesia is considering setting the ref price for palm oil every 2 weeks due to the volatility of prices. Currently exorbitant taxes and levies are making it almost impossible for farmers to make a profit.
In an effort to spur shipments and cut domestic stocks the levy has been cut to a max of $200pt for July from $375 previously but is due to increase the level to $240 in August. That looks unlikely now as cpo has slumped to $1330. The price slump has been alarming, since early May crude was trading at $1900 albeit briefly. The worry is the price is headed to sub $1000 as recession and covid fears in China kills off demand.
Back of fag pckt calcs
------------------------------------
give REA an enterprise value of c. £245m (557p), that is what an acquirer might have to pay.
Calcs as below
Mrk Cap $66m
Debt + $228m
Minorities + $21m
Prefs + $116m
Cash -$47m
Long-term -$55m
Other -$32m
E/V $297m ÷1•21
= E/V £245m
= 557p
That's a huge margin of safety but as we know Mrkt Cap and E/V are as diff as chalk and cheese and can best be summed up as.....
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.....whichever way you look at the nos the sp is hugely undervaluing REA. Unfortunately this has always been the case, well since i got on board a few years ago. When you have such a large discrepancy between M/Cap and fair value its best to side on Mrkt Cap in my view as E/V has a fair bit of 'hopium' attached.