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Think shell generally report better than consensus.
Oil prices obviously have fallen recently (novel coronavirus) but market generally sees that as oversold and eg., wti currently rising, up 1.1% at 53.40.
General sentiment recently impacted by Davos but Shell has well executed clean energy plans and the world recognises oil doesn't go away, its just produced cleaner and more efficiently. I will top up if it drops more but think we have 'double bottomed'..
https://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-data/commodities-prices/oil
This is only my opinion, though as usual it's a fairly cynical 1. Shell could report really good or really bad update on Thursday , but the markets will decide how they wish to see it. How many times have companies updated the market with bad news, yet share price as risen sharply. If I had a £ for everyone company's have provided good updates & S P as plummeted on some other issue, sometimes , forward guidelines, buybacks, cash flow etc etc, I'd be a rich man. Shell as gone down on last 3 updates, though on 2 occasios results were decent. One thing I'll say if it goes down at the open it will plummet when Dow opens. But I'll say this to every shareholder of every share on the plannet. Don't be spooked by people on message boards, who seek to spread fear at times like this. Do one thing & make your own mind up on how you go forward, buy or sell or hold. Only problem is & I see parallels with Vodafone from 2 years ago. When shell updates & it perceived poorly we say get to the next update asap only for it to go down again. That's the big problem as I see it. January in oil is usually a buying opportunity as it's normal that oil shares are at their lows at this time of year. Most shares have fell sharply the last few days & intruth alot worst than oil shares. I believe imo that if this goes down alot on Thursday it could be a long way back. While dividend is maintained many will top up at lower levels, but as I & millions of Vodafone holders found, you top up & share
keeps going down much more than the dividend amount. so it don't work. Hope Im wrong, but whatever the long term value of this company , Thursday is pivotal.
Looking an average gas and oil prices for Q4, I would say that on average they were reasonably similar to Q3 and on that basis and reviewing the SP for the Q3 results, the SP clearly looks oversold ...however, the oil and gas prices have obviously not been as good within January and the first month of Q1, which as such wont have got Q1 off to a good start, which the current SP reflects...
So..does that indicate that there could be a boost to the SP on Thursday ?...with a sell off afterwards as the impact of the virus on China weighs on current oil and gas prices
What are anyone else's view of the results SP?
On Thursday January 30, 2020 at 07.00 GMT (08.00 CET and 02.00 EST) Royal Dutch Shell plc will release its fourth quarter, full year results and fourth quarter interim dividend announcement for 2019.
Vara Q4 2019 Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc updated @23 Jan
https://vara-services.com/shell/
Fourth quarter 2019 outlook provided in the third quarter results announcement on October 31, 2019
https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2019/shell-fourth-quarter-2019-update-note.html