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It was mentioned the other day that we needed to fill the gap at £16.20. Is it all nonsense this gap filling and charting?
OliverTheHardy asked: ‘Does anyone have an idea what the share price will be on Annual Results day at the beginning of Feb?’
Well....
1 ‘Is the market getting ahead of itself again?’
I think it probably is (no doubt encouraged by Shell’s ‘at pace’ comments). It’s a bullish environment for Oil at the moment - so I’m not currently betting on Brent or Shell falling back significantly whilst the signs are positive. The sp could easily remain strong as the results approach, IMO, but what happens immediately before or after they are published is another matter.
2. ‘Do we know what the price of Brent will be tomorrow, let alone in three weeks time?’ OP seems to be in control of the sp at present, and January is often a weak part of the seasonal cycle. But who knows?
3 Where did you get that P/E ratio? Most places give it as around 40 (which I’m not saying is correct).
Gaps may seem to be a bit of chart mumbo jumbo but they do have a good track record of getting filled, so I don’t ignore them.
There are now four gaps in Shell’s chart that are of interest - two above today’s sp and two below, as circled: https://invst.ly/x3r3u Convention has it that gaps always get filled but there are some caveats - or excuses - for when that doesn’t happen. Basically, if a share is rocketing or plummeting then ‘continuation gaps’ can occur due to the sheer speed of movement - they may not get filled if the price gain or loss is large and is maintained indefinitely. My own feeling is that gaps ordinarily do get filled if/when the price moves back within trading range of them, say 10% or 15% . The lowest of Shell’s two gaps is down to 1630 - and, for me, it will be in play whenever the sp is below 1800. The other is from 1771 down to 1760. Above, we have a gap from 1846 to 1872 and another from 2085 to 2124, which are becoming targets as the price moves up towards them.
Yes, it's a fair point Nomad. The problem with comparing the two is where do you start?
It's a lucky person that can hop from one to t'other and take advantage. This chart compares them from the end of 2019:
https://invst.ly/x3kw4 . BP (yellow) was certainly ahead during the first three quarters of 2020 but it's been a tighter race since. I can see why some like to hold both!
Well the breakout that started at the end of December continues at pace, to use Shell's new word of the month. It seems to be fueled more by OP rather than anything Shell specific and the ratio for sp (p): Brent ($/bbl) at the close was 21.3 , which is very consistent with recent days. The tracking is very tight as can be seen in this 15’ view from 9.15 on Jan 4th: https://invst.ly/x3kee .
As anon1 points out - predictions about sp are next to useless. The trick is to spot changes of direction which, as most investors know, is still very challenging. The task is even harder with a volatile commodity like Brent dominating the movements, as it is currently. Suffice it to say that Brent has only wobbled a couple of times since Dec 21st on its climb upwards:
https://invst.ly/x3khc
We all know that $86 is a rather critical level for Brent - it hasn’t gone onwards through it to $88 since 2010, when it continued to $100+ and stayed above it for over three years. It looks like it might be about to have another go at $86, although this time it has the additional challenge of the orange ‘ceiling’ here:
https://invst.ly/x3kmw
Interesting times! GLA.
point well made!
Rules clearly state that there are a limit to the shares a company can buy back in any one day.
These companies aren't being run by idiots chaps, that's the UK government.
You may well be right.
But not enough :-)
From memory they did buy back a lot of shares pre 1000p
More likely to buy shares back, imo.
I made the point at the time that they should have bought back massively when the sp was on it's ar*e, but hey ho, they do it when the price is highish. Crazy, imo.
Oliver,
I predict the sp will either go up, stay the same or fall.
I guarantee you I am right.
In other words, who on earth knows? If anyone knew that, they'd be worth a fortune in a month's time.
Sorry for being flippant, but it's a daft question.
Fwiw, if it falls back a bit, I might have a serious short term punt here.
Yes its possible we'll get a hike, but if we do it'll only be a few cents.
Last thing they want to do is go too big too fast and have to cut it again
is it possible?? What is Shell debt now? $25 B?
Thinking of buying some Shell shares .
Does anyone have an idea what the share price will be on Annual Results day at the beginning of Feb?
Is a P/e ratio of 13.35 for Shell sensible?
Hi Barrieprov
I certainly wouldn't argue with anything you've mentioned.
ATB
1.ARMANI As a patient shareholder I’m delighted to see £18 again generated over relatively short surge
Thanks to Boyobach and Neversellshell22 on this board too for their consistent technically well thought out and supportive analysis
Despite a few doom and gloom posters and non-investors who pop onto this bb.
Many investors have been upbeat ....looking forward to the 2000p+ range & quarterly dividends.
ATB
Rejoiced to soon. Gone backwards since. Anyway, perhaps the Yanks will help lift it back up.
Given all the chat in the press today about the fact that low fuel bills, conversion to a green economy and security of gas supply are not mutually compatible and that the UK only contributes to about 1% of global emissions - there are going to have to be some grown up conversations with a dash of realism.
At this point, recognising fossil fuel companies are part of the answer, not the enemy, hopefully funds and institutions will be forced to reconsider their ESG policies to reflect economic reality rather than continue the green illusion to the cost of their members.
BP are well passed their high of 3 months ago.
Every chance q4 results will blow the lights out pasty - Not long to wait now, Feb 3rd
£18
Awfully quiet this time
Expect a little nudge over £18 today, I've just put a full tank of petrol in the car.
1800 just breached.
This and BP are thundering ahead. Just hope Q4 results don't derail the progress?