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Cheers Nomad - got it!
Indeed, great collaboration opportunity but cultures, compliance and expectations do no5 match. A real shame for the country and Shell.
Soon we sell our onshore fields in this country the better.........
https://www.icirnigeria.org/residents-halt-oil-exploration-at-shells-oilfield-in-bayelsa-sack-workers/
https://www.ft.com/content/740f8f3a-114f-4d58-ab74-a7221d64643f
UK urged to impose windfall tax on offshore oil and gas operators
Opposition parties say one-off levy could help alleviate energy price surge as cost of living soars
Hey Boyo, No I was just interested to see where we would end up at close of play on Friday night.
Ah - you're dealing in $ on the NY Exchange, Nomad? - OK. My comments about the ratio of sp to Brent being around 21.3 x etc etc obviously relate to the UK LSE price in pence. My numbers may not work very consistently with a further conversion back to $ - although the general principle should be equally valid ATB.
Russia is to invade Ukraine if you believe the mainstream media. How might this impact oil and gas prices. Will the market get scared and sell off? Fwiw im more concerned about a general sell off. If oil or gas supply is affected, this would surely support prices.
Thanks Boyo yes magic Brent at $86.50 and RDS closed at over $50.
I watch many interviews with people in the business who predict $100 plus for WTI in 2022 which could be up 20% from here.
Nomad: we've seen a near 20% increase in Brent since 20th December, Shell has nearly matched it but not quite.
The market is going to keep an eye on the dividend yield isn't it? So that’s a potential limiting factor IMV.
Brent has hit $86 overnight - things will get interesting if it continues from here
RDS and BP are clearer on their transitional strategy and perhaps to some extend are at times penalised by some for this (harshly in my view). The Larger US integrated Oil Companies are also clear and are lagging in the transition, but more actively supported politically. Ultimately they will have to change…. It’s a bit like the US, Germany, Australia and China wrt Coal…. Self protection and driving their own proffered agenda at the moment is accepted when done by big players.
My personal view, not backed by any specific data, is that as has already been mentioned, a greater proportion of RDS and BP institutional investors are under increased pressure to go ESG. Having lived in the U.S. and with many friends scattered across the lower 48, my impression is that collectively the country is taking a much more practical view of the need to maintain a healthy o&g industry than in Europe. I agree and accordingly have increased the percentage of o&g in my portfolio while prices were depressed. However, the real 'crystal ball' requirement relates to how well the balance of o&g revenues are ulitilised both to reward shareholders, and transition to being increasingly 'green' energy companies. At the moment, I think that RDS and BP have a clearer focus on this goal than the American majors, so I feel the gap in performance will close sooner rather than later, provided the OP continues to finance the programme. Ultimately we need IIs and I have no doubt they will return with strength when both the green agenda and shareholder returns look solid.
Sorry fat thumbs. If Brent increased 20% this year would it be reasonable to assume Shell would follow taking us to £22 ps or are there just too many variables.
Brent increased 20% this year do you think Shell would also
Hi Jim and all on this thread.
When I started it, I was simply posing the question I ask myself.
TBH Jim, if the other variables with CVX are significant now then they obviously weren’t up until March 2020. Pokerchips pointed out a long way back that the US companies are under less political pressure in respect of climate issues. I recall (but have not researched to confirm) that they may now be better placed in terms of long term O&G reserves. The dividend cut was the main significant factor IMV. So I broadly think that Shell may not catch up with CVX for a considerable time because of these factors. Which leads me to regard the CVX sp as representing something of a ceiling target for Shell for the foreseeable future.
Looking at the last five trading days, Shell has tracked Brent very tightly - so there’s been no company specific news or activity driving the price. BP has been strengthening in price - so the market has viewed BP more favourably this week, as mehmeh pointed out. Chevron has eased off during the week, which is presumably a US market influence. I think Chevron represents a gold standard in Oil Major sp performance - so not a bad reference to check how Shell is doing week by week.
https://invst.ly/x4alx
Certainly many less variables comparing those two.
compare BP and SHELL. BP doing good today.
Is it just differing sentiments in US and UK markets perhaps - is Chevron tracking a major US index whilst RDS moves (other than oil price) are following FTSE? Is it related to dollar / pound strength weakness?
So many variables and so few functioning crystal balls.
Boyo, your start point as good as any other.
They looked to be converging at Q3 2020 and again Q3 2021 BUT on both occasions RDS dropped away whilst Chevron took off. This was not due to CV or reduced dividend and price of oil affected both simultaneously - so any ideas why?
If we could work out why they diverged we might be able to understand what will bring them together again.
There isn't a gap to 1620, btw.
Montyfino you ask “ Is it all nonsense this gap filling and charting?”
Yes.
Shell continues to be on a good run but how well is it really doing?
For much of the past decade, up until March 2020, Shell’s sp kept pace with Chevron. This changed dramatically when Shell cut its dividend. Here is a chart rebased to August 2011; the date has been chosen purely because it provides a convenient start point for a direct comparison. It shows how Chevron’s sp has now recovered to a level surpassing its average level of the past decade and that Shell would be 2580 today if it had performed as well as its US cousin. Can we realistically expect Shell to reach this level again?
https://invst.ly/x44i0
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-hand-over-deer-park-refinery-pemex-next-week-sources-2022-01-13/
Shell to hand over Deer Park refinery to Pemex next week - sources
MEXICO CITY, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Mexican state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos will take control of the Deer Park refinery in Houston, Texas on Jan. 20, three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) had agreed in May to sell its majority stake in the Deer Park refinery, which can process up to 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), to Pemex (PEMX.UL), its long-time partner in the plant, for about $596 million.
"Next Thursday, the payment and transfer of the asset will happen," said a Pemex source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The refinery will then be operated directly by Pemex". read more
Pemex has reached an agreement with personnel already working in the refinery, the source added.
The operators would be the same to guarantee stability, but they would no longer be working for Shell, the source said.
A Pemex delegation, including Chief Executive Officer Octavio Romero, will travel to Texas to finalize the deal on Thursday, a second source added.
Pemex did not immediately respond to a request for comment and a Shell spokesman did not immediately confirm the delivery date.
A third source close to the talks said there are still final transition activities pending, but added that he expected the deal to complete in the next few days.
Mexican Energy Minister Rocio Nahle did not confirm the Jan. 20 date in an interview with local television network Milenio, saying the timing of the process was being managed between Shell and Pemex.
"It is very risky to give a date ... but this process is already underway," Nahle said. "Hopefully soon."
Conversations had accelerated in recent days in order to complete the entire purchase operation before Feb. 1, the third source said.
Neither Shell nor Pemex have detailed what volumes of refined product Mexico will receive from the Texas plant nor how much crude it will be able to supply from now on.
If Brent holds firm or marches on as some ‘experts’ believe, then mid term SP growth will follow….. To £20 again…. Why not?
Buy backs and reduced gearing are the levers RDS favour, a small % increase on dividend values is likely but a second tier driver IMHO.
CAPEX is still constraint deliberately so debt reduction will inevitably come, all good news for the mid term…. Long term investment back into the business will have to resume, even if it’s only for for the cash cow LoB’s to fund the transitions acquisitions.
Charting has its place but the skill is in the interpretation of the right ones…. I have only an amateurish exposure, but in todays digital world a whole host of experts, models, trend analysis, interdependencies etc are touted as indicative of forward SP direction. Take a view and make your call…. Plenty of hot air around, some good insights to consider as data points.