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Pokerchips,
a good summary of the renewable situation.
I am looking to pick up RDSB between 950 and 900, which I reckon I will be able to do over the next fortnight,
The majors SHOULD be investing in the transition but it is bonkers to just walk away from the O&G business as BP are effectively doing.
What is not being addressed, particularly in Europe, is that there still be a demand for liquids and gas in 2050. If the European majors don't fund the development on new finds, then the field is left clear to the American majors, the 3 Chinese majors and the National Oil Companies. If we in Europe want to be in the grip of the rest of the world for a crucial resource, could not have adopted a better strategy.
For RDSB, I can see an increase in prices of oil and gas in the middle of the decade. For the first time in the last ten years, there has not been ONE Final Investment Decision on a LNG project. This is a long-term value play.
Ha! that green trend never stood a chance, of course.... back to the drawing board and the goat's entrails. Has 965 got what it takes? I suspect not, but the decline has stalled since Monday.
https://invst.ly/s9b2w
If this falls to 950, I think we'd be looking at a 5.25% ish divi.
It's beginning to look very appealing to me and I'm looking to add.
No rush though.
Pokerchips re Renewables: spot on.
Marfthew re Genel:
Yes quite an oddity which you've no doubt seen discussed over there. They just got paid and reorganised their bonds (see RNS) which seems to have provided today's boost.
"renewables" have a lower profit margin than oil and gas...and ...you have to remember/consider where the profit from oil and gas goes to...in the sense of the enormous tax and pension fund contributions they generate
moving over to "renewables" means a change in more than just levels of co2 ....
You also have to consider that right now...there is barely enough system capacity to provide the required levels of electricity in heavily populated areas like California when the outside temperatures spike to summer highs and demand from air conditioning etc spikes ... people have been asked to reduce usage
During periods of high temperatures the production of electricity from gas powered power stations actually declines, because the gas system becomes far less efficient with higher surrounding air temperatures
Whilst we can of course move to reducing pollution in urban areas by incorporating hybird/gas/electric vehicles in cities through taxis, police, council vehicles etc ...it is unlikely just yet to be able to provide the electricity needed to replace petrol and diesel engines on the consumer side....and if we did the cost of electricity would peak due to demand being greater than supply...
Part of the answer will no doubt come from energy storage batteries ....which Tesla, Centrica, Shell etc are involved in.....but again these need to be HUGE and even more efficient than the current models/designs available.....
I totally agree Boyobach,
I’m on the sidelines for now until there’s a clearer picture.
I see Genel is having a good day, I can’t fathom why it’s been so strong the past week whilst everything else has tanked. The direction that stock takes hAs always been a bit of a mystery imo.
They can get it out of the ground cheaper than most though, so I guess it’s one of the safer oil plays
Unfortunately it is only recently that companies like Shell and BP started to take renewables seriously enough. Some like Exxon remain in denial.
What that means is that, like supertankers, however much the rudder is turned it has too little effect on the ship's course.
For decades Shell have employed people who are dedicated to oil production and people who lobby for its continuation, they are determined people who don't change their ideas easily if at all.
The skipper might say the company has to change but he has to convince the crew to get maximum performance in making that change. Meanwhile, new companies without that baggage are appearing rapidly over the horizon.
I am resigned to holding what RDSB shares I have but I see no reason to buy more when there are quicker opportunities around. And if the management get it right I could still be onto a winner.
Alas, intelligence and luck do not always go hand in hand.
I like to believe that those that contribute to this thread are intelligent. Perhaps, in common with me, we are resigned to accept that oil companies as we KNEW them are history. Where we differ is our horizon and focus.
I'd like to believe that electric generation of power is the future, however sourced - oil, solar, hydro, tidal, wind etc - but for many of us Shell and its public face is petrol or diesel at fuel stations in most towns of any size. The ICE and all the markets and products associated with that are not going to end overnight. Strategically Shell is doing its best as a behemoth business to alter direction and move into areas where not only does it have monopoly economics but also first to the post advantage.
I am trusting that the senior managers ARE consider buying every business focussed on the provision of energy to accellerate change to a business model to cope with the next 50 years and needs to be in mainstream take up within the next 20 years. At the current SP, the market does not seem to attribute any value to a business capable of evolution.
Buying shares now may simply lock the yield in place for a ROCE in 16 years time or be considered idiotic. I have a soft spot for Shell and will keep my regular order to buy shares each month for the time being.
Ha! Maybe we are being a bit sensitive to the fact that we are posting on an RDS board and don't want to be seen as ramping or de-ramping?
Frankly, the chart is not 50/50 is it? Just look at the way prices have been tested upward!
https://invst.ly/s8xx5.
Sure it could go either way but you'd be a mug to bet heavily on one of the directions in particular wouldn't you?
Haha,
Yes it’s a little bit like that at the minute. US markets are having a decent Green Day today and U.K. futures are bouncing back after hours, if that continues into tomorrow you’d expect a positive open.
Technically the path of least resistance is down unless the recent bottom acts as support, BP held the 233 mark today which was its recent bottom, Shell holding up a bit better.
Charts aren’t really helping here at the minute, imo could go either way depending on continuing daily news.
Thanks for the info. So it might go further down , or possibly up or maybe stay the same. Ah the wonderful tool of charting . Where would be without it
My trailing stop got triggered yesterday. Still a healthy enough trade and nice profit.
Tricky to know where it’s heading now, if you’re looking long term the prices right now for Shell and BP are extremely cheap. However these stocks are certainly out of favour at the minute and there could be more downwards pressure tomorrow and next week. However it’s in oversold territory and can turn quickly and have a nice run up.
I may dip my toes in again tomorrow hoping for a run upto the 20dma next week.
I’ve slightly lost track of which day you’re talking about there, Tantalum, and whether you’re more on the subject of COVID-19 than RDS.
Either way, as far as RDS is concerned, yesterday was not good - although it did fit with what many chart watchers might have expected (a downside gap bearish continuation from the day before). And today has been worse, with RDS retreating further, suppressed by the purple trend that has dominated for over a fortnight (daily view): https://invst.ly/s8v5-
It’s steadily slipping back to 965 and potentially lower, unless support materialises at today’s closing price and this rather unlikely green upward trend prevails (15’ view): https://invst.ly/s8v82
There is a third possibility, of course: neither purple nor green wins and the sp simply levels out and cycles around 990 until future prospects and dividend yield become clearer.
GLA
Not that bad a day. Although were atre at an infection level ( admitted covid cases to hospital) that we were circa 20th March earlier in the year- 1,300. In the last week of March we were seeing a doubling time at the steepest part of the curve of every 5 days. It peaked out at over 17,000 cases. The rate of change is R dependent and when it comes to R reduction behaviour we are at a very different place than earlier in the year and numbers tested positive may be currently higher but with a considerably different testing regimen. No one can predict the future but I expect a slower rise and a lower potential peak due to hightened alarmism in Westminster.
We need more infection and repeated surges at manageable levels to achieve the desired outcome, unless of course a vaccine appears. So not a bad day, even the sp is up.
I would make a guess that the market also has one cautious eye on next week's Biden-Trump debate ......that in itself could set the feeling heading into a new month and quarter...
You can say that again friend, it's UGLY over here in the states right now and quickly getting worse.
I'm positive on Shell in the longer term but the excitement over a recovery in the morning was crazy. The UK is at the level of cases from near the highs earlier in the year, and we've barely put any restrictions in place, let alone a full lockdown, everyone back at schools/nurserys, pubs still open 99% of the time, etc. More virus pain is coming and then there's Brexit sharp approaching to lump on more pain.
It's going to be very unlikely for virus cases to drop sharply in virus season with no significant measures to stop it and Boris' clowns are still playing a dangerous game of chicken with a good chance of ending in tears because they still believe their own bluster.
I think RDSB will be a big winner in the end....but there could be more pain on the UK markets in the coming weeks and months.
That was not how you'd want a 'recovery' day to go. After a wobbly start, the morning was strong enough but having appeared to regain the critical 1010, RDS then collapsed back below both the support and the prevailing downward trend to close below yesterday's price.
Daily chart: https://invst.ly/s8d2r
15' view: https://invst.ly/s8d6y