London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
By the time this as played out most of long term holders will have wished they had of done just that. Problems are banks ballsed up so badly 13 years ago that the reality is your lucky to get around 1% ISH on your account. So people look for more yearly return, so gamble on shares. Enjoy the next few dividends because I fear within a 2 year time frame it will be cut. Hope I wrong but will be amazed if that doesn't materialize.
Indeed daytradenovice. I, on the other hand, think the current price is a terrific buying opportunity. In my view, I expect the oil and gas prices to be pretty volatile this year. Don't be surprised if they unexpectedly spike from these currently levels due to some other unforeseen circumstances non-coronavirus related.
crikey some peoples glasses are so half empty they don't even own the glass!
Maybe a safe bank account would be more suitable for their monies.
If a dividend cut is a possibility would the daily share buy backs be continuing?
Hi, some very good points made. Right , you think the c e o will give a not about small shareholders or how he's perceived. He'll get a huge pay packet whatever. We won't. Will he care on his big palace in some leafy village. Get real.
Take this bet. I predict before 8 more dividends for shell it will be cut or a rights issue. No it's no buts.
If people wish to get emotional that's up to them. My brother said this would make £27 this year, June he said. Too Blaise , I told him. And now you state the same guff that he spouted. And the same guff as was spouted on Vodafone by the now defunct CEO & holders on the Vody SE site. Same guff about history.when the push comes to shove we will be shafted.
I find in these problems there's a straw that breaks the camel's back. It's a sportsman's bet. Any takers.
Of course the virus will pass. Market will recover eventually. But shell & BP will not rose in line with markets, mark my words. Oil stocks in USA the worst performaning stocks last year. 1 by 1 you will come around to my point of view. Imo. Time will tell. If we get the next 8 dividend without a cut, I'll never come on here again.
Blimey, some people seem to be getting their knickers in a twist. The fact is, oil & gas prices have always gone up and down. RDS share price too, funnily enough. Sometimes the RDS share price goes up and down for reasons other than oil & gas prices. Funny old world innit.
What we have at present is low oil & gas prices, the latest virus that the media is making a big song and dance about, and Greta and her merry followers screaming Save The World. My guess is in a few months the virus will hardly be mentioned - just like the previous ones - SARS, Swine flu, etc, etc, and shock, horror, people realise the world keeps turning after all. And here's another wild thought - Greta might have discovered boys (or girls, to be inclusive) and suddenly she fades from the limelight too.
I digress, but I comfort myself in knowing that Shell have never cut their dividend since the end of World War 2. Now think about how many world events have happened since then and ask yourself, in the cold light of day, if our illustrious CEO would want to be the one to break THAT news to investors. I can confidently say that it will be a cold day in hell before that happens.
What I would suggest to some (no names, no pack drill) is to keep your emotions well away from your cash and investments. Trust me on this - it's a lesson I've learnt the hard way. Have a watchlist. Set target prices to buy (or sell) tranches at. Make a plan. Then stick to it. You can thank me later :-)
And just to add, I've given RDSB a Weak Buy. Why? Because it offers a good place to buy a tranche. It might go lower, so then buy another tranche. But what if it doesn't go lower and every day you see the price creep up, before eventually realising you missed out altogether? Been there. Got that T shirt. Answer: buy in tranches. Of course you could sit back and wait until all the bad news (perceived or otherwise) is no longer making the news. But where do you think the share price of RDSB will be then?
In the words of Uncle Warren, be greedy when others are fearful, and buy when there is blood on the streets (Rothschild).
Was meant to be £20 20p
Char,I sold some RDSB on the 12th Feb ie 15 days ago for £20 .2p .They are now £3 cheaper.you surely do not believe that Shell and BP have gone to hell in a handcart in a mere 15 days? If only I had been so clever with BP but hey as they say hindsight is never there when you need it. The ftse is back to where it was at the millenium. There is a lot of mischief making due to the virus.It will pass .
In the US a state like Texas where the oil generates a lot of local work, income and taxes this downturn will hit hard..... but it will hit the Federal budget too as the taxes received will obviously be a lot less than budgeted.
This is possibly one of the reasons Trump is trying to calm the situation down...the Federal spending is already scheduled to be 1 trillion dollars over budget , so any loss of taxes from oil isnt going to help
The banks could waiver covenants for some but clearly there are others that are never going to turn a profit on the investment put into them..
Comapnies like Wood Group that have invested in seeking work there are also going to be hit I assume ..they are down 7% today
Nobody wants high oil prices but, prices in the 40 dollar range are not good either , for anyone ...not even the consumer, although they may not realise it
I’m looking to top up at £16 and I think there’s little technical reason in this market to assume we won’t see that price quite soon and I’m going to get out hopefully if the share recovers to £20 this year
£22-£23 or £25 would be lovely but unless the shares fly back after hopefully Covid-19 burns itself out post March I’m not betting on it
I agree with other posts that suggest the dividend is unsustainable and if the recovery is slid oil prices may remain depressed for sometime so the SP may languish for a while yet but I’m not a big investor and in it for fun as I once heard you can go bankrupt before the market turns round
My biggest worry is my pension scheme that did well last year is probably going to be decimated in the short term so I’ve suspended drawing down on it and will hold a higher proportion of cash having fortunately offloaded other shares marginally in profit
GLA as there is always the danger of catching a falling knife and I’m sending best wishes that everyone on this BB and their loved ones and friends will be safe
While you make some good observations. The fact remains I've been buying shares for well over £25 years. So I've alot of experience of when a shares had its day. I've held , Barclays, Lloyds, Vodafone, Tesco, Sainsbury's & bet(sieve)(invesnys). All held long term. All went pear shaped, one way or another.
In America in the main, 2 guys go for an job. 1 as known nothing but success. The other 1, mainly failure. Well most USA forms will plumbed for the guy who saw failure. Because he knows the pitfalls. People keep throwing arguments about oil. My arguments aren't based hugely in oil sentiment, though to a lesser intent.
Let me spell out whaty 28 years in shares tell me how this & BP for that matter, from here on in.
When the stock market recovers, no I have no idea when on those predictions. Shell & BP will not rise inline with the markets. Shell + BP profits are falling,. Fact. Theirs little buffer left. Fact. People who buy today probably will see a decent rise eventually. Maybe this year £23 if we're extremely lucky. But people holding way above, good luck. Shell or BP, or any footsie 100 company will not pay a 8-10% dividend , while profits fall so sharply. It just don't happen. HSBC laying off staff galore, closing branches galore. Their dividend must be under scrutiny from the board.
If things don't turn for shell & to a lesser extent BP. The dividend will be cut, period or a rights issue, to recaptilize the balance sheet. But the value of your share holding is diluted.
All these predictions I made while holding Vodafone. I held at £2 30, needed £2 45 to break even. Kept topping up all the way down to £2 10. Then realized to late it was , where shell is now. Got out of Vodafone at £1 75 & predicted it would plummet. It did to £1 20. 2 years later stuck at £1 40ish, and dividend slashed. Once fear gets into a share it's best days are behind it, I always find. Dyor,, that's what people say. That's crap. Maybe I'm a bigger looney than the 1 at BP. Let time tell. But I'll lay you all a penny to pound my predictions will if not all, come to pass. It's sods law.
I told you once I topped up it would plummet. Char, this speaks more about you than the stock.You said you have been investing for 25 years but it does not come across that way.You are very emotionally involved which points to inexperience.I am underwater here as well as many others. I hope it will come back but do I really know? nope and neither does anybody else.What I do know though is that that the weak will go to the wall and the big fellers will survive.The frackers in the US will get a good reaming out like they did 4 years ago.The banks will not give them a third chance at borrowing.This is a cleansing device to weed out the poor performers.As I posted the other day, I get your disappointment but you bought in just the same.Keep your finger of the ''buy'' button for a wee while.Nobody and i mean nobody can call the bottom or top of any stock.
When the market takes a crash like now it is probably the most difficult time....some see it as bargain time ...but ...if the bears then take hold of the market then....watch out...a bear in a bad mood is not to be messed with..
I have tiny amount in here and am not looking to buy yet...time now is watch the mood of the bear and give respect to the potential damage it can do ....
I guess I am being very cautious right now rather than looking towards 2022 or whenever ..not too interested in thinking I can find the bottom...I am not that good
I have no idea what will happen next..but for me I prefer to get the bear calmed down before going anywhere near its mouth !!!
Good luck to all....whatever anyone decides in this difficult time ...
Equities markets, are not the real world. What I was trying to say is how venomous these BB´s can be. This is why the upmost caution should be held reading all these comments.
This is the value trap most of us fall into. Top up at what's usually a decent price. Only trouble is a week later, the S P is even lower. Ok, the dividend keeps you interested, but the dividend Verses the fall in price tells its own tale. Many investors on different shell message boards say , just keep topping up, this is a bargain. I recall when Vodafone was plummeting many saying there , it's a once in a lifetime chance to top up . What happened , Share price plummeted, dividend cut. This will become 1 of the drifter shares as I call them. Vodafone, Barclays, Lloyds, Tesco, Sainsbury's, . They just drift along, but never get back to their previous high levels. Many saying this will be back at £22-£25 sooner rather than later. I shall nail my colours to the mast now. It will be a long month of Sundays before this gets back anywhere near £25. They live in a fantasy world imo. Get real. Wake up & smell the oil & gas. I told you once I topped up it would plummet. Is this the bottom, errrr no. That's the real world.
what is happening tomorrow?
Wait till tomorrow !
All those that thought Friday´s price represented a bargain?