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Yes no & shell did indeed maintain their divis then, but they had huge cash reserves on the balance sheet. Profits our failing update upon update. When the gulf of Mexico oil disaster happen BP got rid of the dividend. It's not rocket science. BP paid out huge claims, so the dividend is the 1st things CEP's will ditch.
It's pure Symantes. Whatever the sector, the reasons are not important. The only thing that's is the common denominator is in all the company's I listed when profits slumped the dividend was slashed or went. It's a simple black & white scenario. Profits slump, divi cut sooner rather than later. Are shells profits falling, yes. Does there look to be an immediate turn round, error no. Maybe the buybacks will stave off a divi cut in the short term. But if profits continue to fall at current levels, there's 1 certain thing. A divi cut. That goes for any company. I think BP is in a similar boat, just further from the iceberg, due to their lack of exposure to gas. They will cut as well imo. All the banks , bar HSBC, got rid of divis in 2007. HSBC latest 40. Ooo jobs cuts don't orger well for their Divi either imo. It looks like when not if there too imo.maybe I'm a madman. But sometimes , history shows if only people had listened to his rantings. Let me be straight no one would be happier for me to be 100% wrong. I told my brother this would not hit £27 this year. Well the year high last year was £26 47 roughly. And year low £21, 43 roughly. That means it need to find another £2, 50 this year. I think I can safely say I'm right & it's only February.
No, that's why I'm certain going forward here of what I predicted. This always served me well.
Char - but e.g. Shell & BP did maintain their dividends when oil slumped to $30 a barrel - am not saying you will ultimately be wrong but oil will be back up to $70 a barrel in due course with heathy dividends paid in the interim, if you have no faith in the future of oil & gas maybe then cash out with a 25% profit having pocketed healthy dividends in the meanwhile. While Greta Thunberg et al bang on don't think oil & gas will disappear in the next 10 years.
Barclays, lloyds, . Now you are talking about a horse of a different colour.They were both caught up in the financial crash which was brought on by pure greed and skullduggery aided and abetted by the masters of greed the yanks.They have also been hammered by the misselling scandal.I lost my shirt on LLOY.Never again will I buy into a bank it's too easy for them to hide stuff.Got to go now, may I ask you a question? Do you have any success stories?
Hi, hope your good.
Yes BP did indeed raise the dividend. Why, because the CEO was going. With a big pay off I'm sure. He's not in the firing line anymore.Replaced by a Looney. Need i say more.
Your missing the point of Vodafone completely. Let me be clear. It's simple. I held Vodafone , Tesco, Sainsbury's, Barclays, lloyds, . All these companies had different falling profits. Their from 3 different sectors. But the common denominator is when the crap hit the fan & profits slumped , the dividend either disappeared or was slashed. Oil, find it , pump it, but here's the crux of my argument, that applies to all the above companies. Yes sell it. But the price of oil keeps plummeting as does gas btw. So as with all the above companies when they can't sell their products at high prices & as soon as profits fell continually the dividend was gone or slashed. It's simple. The small shareholders will bare the brunt. No company on the footsie 100 will pay an 8 to 10 % dividend while profits continually plunge.
I am invested here and will get c. £4k div shortly - then another shortly after that and so on.
Excellent,your previous post does not portray such confidence.So you have approx.11000 rdsb, good man.
'Ye buys yer ticket, ye takes yer chances.'
I am invested here and will get c. £4k div shortly - then another shortly after that and so on.
Bank gives you 100% deposit back while Shell is down 25% or so in a couple of months.----------------- well keep your money in the bank and sleep well.Ye buys yer ticket, ye takes yer chances.
I believe the dividend will be cut within 2/3 years. Char, you are giving yourself a lot of leg room .2/3 years is a long time in the stock market (a weeks a long time in politics).We are on the cusp of a full blown panic due to the c-virus and the Brent is sitting at $56/barrel.Not great but not yet a disaster.Only 3 weeks ago BP raised the divi,do you think they did it to ruin the company or to fool the world?.The c- virus was on the go when they did this but they did it.I assume that they might just know a wee bit about running the companyWhen the crude price goes out the window the refiners profits come into play,(the reason why the majors are verically integrated) The exploration and crude producers only will start dropping like flies (tar sands, fracking) and the market will come back to equilibrium as is the law of nature.You keep banging on about Vodafone on an oil forum, why? You are comparing strawberries with brussel sprouts.Telecommunications is a very cut throat business which evolves by the week, oil is simple,find it pump it and sell it.We all have different opinions but is that not the raison d'etre of the board?.Keep the faith.
Yor sentiments make perfect sense but I will not be holding out for 25£, opportunites may exist near 17£ after all it's 18£ currently.
Bank gives you 100% deposit back while Shell is down 25% or so in a couple of months.
Guys - it's a solid share, probably will top £25+ in the next 12 months and at current prices yield is over 8%.
Going forward am sure renewables will apply pressure, but for the next few years the oil super majors will be fine - corona virus will pass - tragically these things break out every 10 or 15 years, normal service will resume in China - would rather have some Shell shares for the next few years than money on deposit earning 1%.
Alot of div stocks been hammered. Maybe the optimum risk is a ftse index tracker that pays a div. Shell/ BP included.
Firstly being an x oil worker there is no shortage its costs v sales.
I wonder how much the buy backs are sustaining the share price?
If current markets mean less sales lower revenues for sure then possibly an impact on dividends
Yes dividents and a stable share price beats bank interest a risk here
Considering to buy back in but at a lower price a possible value £16-17 could be lurking.
Char333
I think the dividend has already been cut, in some ways ....the sale of assets during the last 2 years "should" have provided shareholders with a special dividend ....but...they havent ...that money has gone towards buybacks of previous scrip divs and partly supporting the high costs of the current dividend...shareholders have received nothing "extra" back for all those assets ...
Hi, yes a very interesting take on the situation. Firstly , I believe the dividend will be cut within 2/3 years. So what impact will that have on SP. When I 1st bought shares well over 25 years ago this is the exact guff people portrayed. Choose a good dividend, good balance sheet, good cash flow, good yeild etc etc etc. Then take a 3 to 5 years position. I need 8 more dividends to break even on the money I lost on Vodafone. If, and I believe it's a big if the dividend isn't cut in that time period, the share price will be that low , I will be in a worst position than when I started. Imagine someone buying shell , then being in a coma for 5 years. Well I'd hate to see the look on their face when they come to. Wake up & smell the oil & gas. The next update won't offer much, will it. Lower profits garenteed. So if OPEC helps next month where is the share price running up from. I've no doubt she'll will be around in 25 years , but not paying this amount of dividend. Look at the banks, supermarkets. All the restructuring, divis s slashed, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work things out. Endlessly falling profits there equalled dividend cuts. So that's the scenario here & BP , imo. Let's hope I'm hopelessly wrong. But time will tell.
Tom78, I like that idea.
Portfolio theory helps maximise return for lowest risk:
'If a portfolio contained four equally-weighted assets with expected returns of 4, 6, 10, and 14%, the portfolio's expected return would be:
(4% x 25%) + (6% x 25%) + (10% x 25%) + (14% x 25%) = 8.5%'
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modernportfoliotheory.asp
I certainly wouldn’t put the whole lot into shell. I like the idea of income shares over an annuity but would split between at least 5-6 good quality shares in different sectors and investment trusts with international growth shares.
typo a.) £125k income..
Char,
If you retired and have £100k to buy an annuity or invest in Shell and you lived for 25 years in retirement, you could...
a.) Buy annuity income with £100k = c£75k income over 25 years (£5k per annum) and when you die, £2.5k income per annum to your wife till she dies. £100k all gone
b.)Buy Shell and its div income @£25 price per share, dividend income (no growth) = c£145k and when you die, the shares have a value to pass on with various tax benefits
Just have to convince yourself that Shell will be trading in 25 years and paying a dividend. Even 5 years is time for recovery in SP and rebalancing your investment.
char, sometimes we are all too keen to spend our way out of trouble by averaging down, different views on that - personally id rarely do it as i see it just tying up more capital, short term thats OK but long term not so good. Just my view mind. Im very heavy in oil and bought lots of shell at BG purchase time so most of my purchase costs are at a big discount to todays sp, not helpfull to you i understand, but these shares did hit £26 odd not so long ago (am not suggesting they could again tomorrow) and are back down again, in short, they do move around a lot and we never know what is around the corner.
The US shale boom and Trump has helped keep the oil price down and relatively stable over recent years. Again that may not remain so. Reading what others better placed than me say it would appear shale is suffering, which can only be good for the majors. The way i see it there is a lot of panic in the markets due to the media coverage of the corona virus, whether its a pandemic or not is clear as differing countries may or may not be reporting truthfully. The likes of you and me will never know the truth of this, however this is driving the herd and affecting all shares prices negatively. Humans are a lot like sheep in some respects, farmer turns up with food we all trot over, lion turns up we all f.ck off.
The situation in the middle east with Iran also interests me, if they are suffering from this virus you can bet your bottom dollar that their rulers will struggle, they may blame the western sanctions and start acting up again, showing a strong face, to stop their population rebelling, this would drive up oil prices as tensions rise. There may even be restrictions in the transport of oil if this virus truely takes off.
In short i suppose what im trying to say is that sometimes patience is an investors best friend, and that these things tend to be cyclical, it might be down now but it might not be tomorrow, no point worrying about it to much as no investor should invest funds they cannot afford to lose realy.
I topped up out of desperation. To average down. All I've predicted I fully believe will happen often, but I'm hoping to break even before the dividend cuts etc etc happens. I need to years roughly more divis to break even, but where will share price be. Leaving me & loads of others still hugely out of pocket.
Daytradenovice,
yes...inevitable a certain emotion comes into the wording...true
my post, to which im assuming you refer, reiterated pretty much what you said at 10.37 Poker, people seeing into the future, or heaven or whatever you want to call it, which is impossible as you stated.
Opinions are well and good, we all have them, but blatant predictions about "mess in the usa" "head in sand" " get real" etc are unsubstantiated guesses at best. And at a time of volatility are hardly helpful or factual.