The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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China if you want to squable with someone over PRE do it on the PRE BB, not here.
My apologies to all other RBW shareholders, but Dumbo has been Trolling the PRE page for months telling us that RBW is so much better than PRE and that PRE is a dog !. He is obviously "Arithmetically handicapped" and I would encourage anybody finding his numbers disturbing to do their own due diligence.
You say this is wrong ? A fully worked Business Plan that was put together by recognised experts* in their Fields,
So what Qualifications do you have to support your claims, serial Troll, lousy investor, .....
Rensana's Plc Financial Summary April 2021
Annual Production of Rare Earth Oxides (REO)
C. 12,500 tpa
Annual Production NdPr Oxides C. 4,500 (included in REO)
Opex US$ 22/kg rare earth oxide
Capex Saltend Refinery US$ 125M
Longonjo Mine and
Infrastructure
US$ 38M
Longonjo Concentrator US$ 105M
Longonjo MRES Refinery US$ 124M
Growth Allowance and
Contingency
US$ 31M
Revenue (Average steady state) US$ 550 million (average per annum based
on first five years)
EBITDA (Average steady state) US$ 359 million (average per annum based
on first five years)
NPV8 ** (un-leveraged , post-tax) US$ 2.3 billion
IRR 57%
Payback from first production 2.0 years
• SRK: Mineral resource estimates
• Snowden: Mine plan schedule and pit optimisation
• Wood Group: Longonjo and Saltend technical engineering and design; capex and
opex cost estimates; supervision of metallurgical testwork and pilot plant
programs
Now RBW were spruiking off at having a concentrate grade of ~ 65+%, so their contained the RE's in 7000t of concentrates is not much lower than Pensana's 12,000 t at 45% ? (and also roughly the same as Lynas). Now Lynas made a after Tax Profit US$40M in Q1 2021 after salting away a big slice of revenue for CAPEX.
So please explain to everybody including the Burundi Government, why Rainbow's Management can only make a Profit of US$1-7M out of a Deposit that YOU (presumably) have done your DD on and YOU say is so much better than Pensana ????
Dumbo, Just look at the numbers you are quoting ! They strongly suggests to me that something is definitely not Kosher with this Companies accounting ! No wonder the Burundi Government is asking questions.
Only US$1Mpa profit from exporting 7000t of what is touted to be the richest RE Ore in the World ???? If I were the Burundi Govt and receiving just US$100,000, I would have to ask "Is all the trouble worth it" ? clearly we are either being ripped off, or this Company does not know how to manage an Operation correctly ?
While Angola might receive 25% income from exporting 12,000t of a far lower grade concentrate, with a NPV of over US$1 Billion there is still plenty of profit for the Company, Pensana is in 'Partnership' with the Angolan Govt, their Sovereign Wealth Fund has been a strong supporter both Politically and Financially, indirectly they are providing an estimated US$1-2B of infrastructure, so PRE Shareholders certainly do not begrudge their Angolan partners purchasing their 23% Shareholding. Certainly a better arrangement than Tanzania's 15% 'Free Carried' interest in Peak !
That is what a Win-Win-Win arrangement looks like, everybody gets a fair share of the Profits.
I agree that the government may not appreciate the risks and costs associated with mining, and based on that, they may be pushing for too bigger a slice. I also feel that, at some point RBW need to walk away and focus on S.A. They should set a dead line for a deal to be agreed or not, and go to plan B if no deal.
What I didnt know, until the read the latest news (which is old news really) was this:
Others companies whose operations have been suspended are involved in mining gold and coltan, which is used mainly in electronic devices.
So if other mines are also suspended, then we may be a bargaining chip, used by the government, and our fete may be less in our own hands than I first thought. The government must be losing quite a bit if various mines are stopped. They must have one mean poker face to lose 3 months worth of tax and see the 10% stake in the mine they have lose value. Almost sounds a bit unhinged and not someone you could trust to keep a deal.
To the point about using the income from Gakara to fund or even part fund Phal. I had initially hoped this would be the case, but even if exports starts soon, I bet we see a placing or deal done. One reason I wont buy any more here.
Finances aside, the indecision on Gakara appears to be crippling progress in Phalabora.
I think getting Phal online represents the best return for investors here, even if the mine life is short. 15 years is long enough to be on to some other opportunity, or sell the business. I bet the Brundii government will still be spiting their face over Gakara. They sound like a tough bunch to deal with IMO.
I note in all this time, no real explanation or acknowledgement from George. Another reason I wont buy more and disappointing.
DP: at least two issues, of course, with the 'focus on SA argument':
- SA has only a c. 15 year life - a wasting asset, which the market will always be less enthusiastic about than an on-going project.
- in the ideal scenario, the continuing revenues from Gakara would have supported the development of the SA asset. That looks to be less likely now.
At the risk of continuing your negative-cross-post on PRE, if a 25% 'tax' would kill their Angolan project, then presumably it's 25% of mine revenues, rather than 25% of earnings?
More local news regarding the suspension of all mining companies in Burundi to allow for renegotiation of all agreements signed by the previous President, no real news in the article but linked below for those interested (you can translate automatically on Google Chrome).
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20210722-le-pouvoir-burundais-suspend-les-activit%C3%A9s-mini%C3%A8res-pour-ren%C3%A9gocier-tous-les-contrats?ref=tw
This gets me thinking, what does a win-win agreement in Burundi look like? I would be interested to hear people's thoughts. The article suggests 10% isn't enough, which is reasonable, what is enough?
IMO I am happy to double or triple the Burundi Government's stake just to stop this problem and start building a solid relationship where these problems are less likely to arise again (especially in light of Dr. Phams appointment).